Final Four discussion thread

Bazza · Apr 1, 2019

According to updated national championship odds from Westgate, the Cavaliers, who opened the season at 15-1 odds, are now 3-2 to win. Just behind them is Michigan State on the opposite side of the bracket with odds at 7-4. No. 3 seed Texas Tech has the third-best odds at 4-1 followed by Auburn at 7-1.

The Final Four will begin from Minneapolis on Saturday evening, and Virginia is the only remaining No. 1 seed in the field. It will face the lowest-seeded team remaining, No. 5 seed Auburn, at 6:09 p.m. ET. The nightcap will feature a matchup between No. 2 seed Michigan State, which knocked out No. 1 overall seed Duke in a thriller on Sunday, and No. 3 seed Texas Tech. That game will tip at 8:49 p.m. ET.

Virginia will be a trendy pick among many, but if you're looking for value here, look no further than the Spartans. They've won 14 of their last 15, they've got to be feeling confident after taking out the most talented team in the field, and coach Tom Izzo is making his eighth (!) Final Four appearance. Between the other coaches combined, they have zero. Michigan State's experience on the court and on the sideline is underrated and will mean a lot when the chips are down.
In addition, Westgate released its opening lines for Saturday's games:

Virginia -5.5 over Auburn (Total: 131)
Michigan State -3 over Texas Tech (Total: 133)

LINK

dayhiker · Apr 1, 2019

Breaking News: Alabama fan horrified to learn that Auburn is actually in the Final Four and that it’s not an April Fool’s Day joke.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

Bazza said:
Virginia -5.5 over Auburn (Total: 131)

Got ‘em right were we want ‘em .

This will be an intriguing game. No team in America slows it down as well as the Cavs do, and our proclivity for going fast is well-known at this point. We’re both pretty efficient. It’s going to come down to who dictates the pace. If we can get them running and shoot at an average clip, we’ll be in really good shape.

They’re content to let teams have shots from the perimeter defensively, so that’s a point in our favor.

Think we need to come out and hit them fast and hard early. Get them running. No problem if the shots aren’t falling initially. They’ve started falling eventually all tournament.

TideEngineer08 · Apr 1, 2019

AUDub said:
They’re content to let teams have shots from the perimeter defensively, so that’s a point in our favor.

That darn near killed them against Purdue, but Purdue only had one guy doing everything. If Auburn can get 2 or 3 guys going from the perimeter as they are very capable of doing, Katy bar the door.

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

TideEngineer08 said:
That darn near killed them against Purdue, but Purdue only had one guy doing everything. If Auburn can get 2 or 3 guys going from the perimeter as they are very capable of doing, Katy bar the door.

An interesting point is, in all 3 of their losses, UVA’s opponent scored 69+. That’s low for us. They can probably disrupt us badly defensively without Chuma to create mismatches inside, but we’ve been more than willing to take threes in volume all tournament. If they let us, and if we hit like we usually do, they’ll be hard pressed to keep up with us with their grind it out style.

teamplayer · Apr 1, 2019

It definitely presents a contrast in styles and should provide an entertaining game. Congrats to AU. I was wondering which team I would start to support when watching the game, but it was easily AU over UK. Honestly, I couldn't stand how UK's point guard carried the ball almost every single dribble. The ref called it once, but it was ridiculous. I also found myself pulling for MSU over Duke, and part of that was because they let Zion keep his shirt untucked. Hahaha, I know that sounds crazy, but little things like that can determine which team I support when watching a game between teams other than Bama.

BamaMoon · Apr 1, 2019

MSU is the team that should have the most confidence. Great coach who has been there and knows how to prepare for the final four. That's a big advantage.

Virginia probably has the most "pressure" after what happened last year.

IMO, TT and Auburn have nothing to lose. Fan bases are ecstatic they made to the FF. They are playing with house money, basically.

Concerning Auburn: I thought they were one cold shooting night from getting exposed, but they basically had that night against KY, yet they still won. KY actually helped them a bunch and took and play from our book and couldn't hit a free throw. But Auburn's strength is their guards are basically unguardable. About the quickest I've seen at this level in years. They can get to the rim and score even when they go cold from the outside. And then, Pearl has them playing at such a high intensity that they outscrap everbody with hustle and rebounding and they create some very easy and cheap transition points. After watching them closely the last 2 or 3 games they are going to be a hard out for anybody that's left. The bigness of the moment might get to them in the FF, but I'm not going to be shocked if they win it all. Gulp, that's hard to say.

bamamc1 · Apr 1, 2019

BamaMoon said:
MSU is the team that should have the most confidence. Great coach who has been there and knows how to prepare for the final four. That's a big advantage.

Virginia probably has the most "pressure" after what happened last year.

IMO, TT and Auburn have nothing to lose. Fan bases are ecstatic they made to the FF. They are playing with house money, basically.

Concerning Auburn: I thought they were one cold shooting night from getting exposed, but they basically had that night against KY, yet they still won. KY actually helped them a bunch and took and play from our book and couldn't hit a free throw. But Auburn's strength is their guards are basically unguardable. About the quickest I've seen at this level in years. They can get to the rim and score even when they go cold from the outside. And then, Pearl has them playing at such a high intensity that they outscrap everbody with hustle and rebounding and they create some very easy and cheap transition points. After watching them closely the last 2 or 3 games they are going to be a hard out for anybody that's left. The bigness of the moment might get to them in the FF, but I'm not going to be shocked if they win it all. Gulp, that's hard to say.

Never thought I’d see someone as fast as Sexton while dribbling a basketball until au’s point guard. WOW

RTR91 · Apr 1, 2019

AUDub said:
An interesting point is, in all 3 of their losses, UVA’s opponent scored 69+. That’s low for us. They can probably disrupt us badly defensively without Chuma to create mismatches inside, but we’ve been more than willing to take threes in volume all tournament. If they let us, and if we hit like we usually do, they’ll be hard pressed to keep up with us with their grind it out style.

UVA's 3 point defense ranks fourth in the nation at 28.7% and they hold opponents to 55.4 points per game. Biggest stat might be turnovers. They have 323 on the season (just under 9 a game). If they can prevent Auburn getting the steals, UVA should be ok.

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

bamamc1 said:
Never thought I’d see someone as fast as Sexton while dribbling a basketball until au’s point guard. WOW

He and Sexton were teammates at Pebblebrook, and until Sexton's senior year Jared was the man. He's so good. Only thing keeping him from being a lottery pick like Collin is that he's diminutive.

Just a stone cold assassin. He may go quiet for the first 3/4s of a game, then he'll straight take over and will Auburn to victory with either his shooting or slashing.

And the guy backing him up, J'Von, is no slouch either. When Jared got those two fouls early against UTk, we didn't miss a beat. Not as good a shooter or passer, but every bit as good a slasher and can thunder home dunks better than guys with half a foot on him.

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

RTR91 said:
UVA's 3 point defense ranks fourth in the nation at 28.7% and they hold opponents to 55.4 points per game. Biggest stat might be turnovers. They have 323 on the season (just under 9 a game). If they can prevent Auburn getting the steals, UVA should be ok.

3 point defending is one of the schematic weaknesses of Bennett's "pack line" defense. They like to pack the paint and force you to take threes. The trick is that you have to him them the first time, because you'll rarely get a second.

alabama mike1 · Apr 1, 2019

Pulling for the home state team here in southern Ohio. I know, I am not the typical Bama fan that wants AU to lose every time that play something. That distinction belongs to the irish of Indiana. Hopefully, Auburn can get Virginia to play up-tempo. Best wishes AUDub!

BamaMoon · Apr 1, 2019

alabama mike1 said:
Pulling for the home state team here in southern Ohio. I know, I am not the typical Bama fan that wants AU to lose every time that play something. That distinction belongs to the irish of Indiana. Hopefully, Auburn can get Virginia to play up-tempo. Best wishes AUDub!

I've seen some pretty hard-core Bama fans who live in Alabama come out and say they are pulling for Auburn in the FF.

I admit I don't feel the same about this as I would about football, but I also wouldn't be caught dead cheering for Auburn, but I won't care if they pull this off. Not rooting for them, but not rooting against them. There, I said it. :biggrin:

BAMAVILLE · Apr 1, 2019

BamaMoon said:
MSU is the team that should have the most confidence. Great coach who has been there and knows how to prepare for the final four. That's a big advantage.

Virginia probably has the most "pressure" after what happened last year.

IMO, TT and Auburn have nothing to lose. Fan bases are ecstatic they made to the FF. They are playing with house money, basically.

Concerning Auburn: I thought they were one cold shooting night from getting exposed, but they basically had that night against KY, yet they still won. KY actually helped them a bunch and took and play from our book and couldn't hit a free throw. But Auburn's strength is their guards are basically unguardable. About the quickest I've seen at this level in years. They can get to the rim and score even when they go cold from the outside. And then, Pearl has them playing at such a high intensity that they outscrap everbody with hustle and rebounding and they create some very easy and cheap transition points. After watching them closely the last 2 or 3 games they are going to be a hard out for anybody that's left. The bigness of the moment might get to them in the FF, but I'm not going to be shocked if they win it all. Gulp, that's hard to say.

I feel you ... this has definitely been a tourney of matchups and UV is one that I think plays more into Auburn favorite as long as they play their game. I'm a huge MSU fan but I won't be surprised to see a TT/Barner matchup for the final, just looking more and more like that kind of a year.

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

BAMAVILLE said:
I feel you ... this has definitely been a tourney of matchups and UV is one that I think plays more into Auburn favorite as long as they play their game. I'm a huge MSU fan but I won't be surprised to see a TT/Barner matchup for the final, just looking more and more like that kind of a year.

Hope we avoid UVA/TTU in the final. Final score would be something like 40-36 and the fans would be begging to be put out of their misery.

DogPatch · Apr 1, 2019

BamaMoon said:
I've seen some pretty hard-core Bama fans who live in Alabama come out and say they are pulling for Auburn in the FF.:

Not this guy.

AUDub · Apr 1, 2019

Dub walked into work today like

Bazza · Apr 1, 2019

I understand the emotions that result in how one feels about a rival's performance in a particular sport.

The thing is - it's a free country. So root for whoever you want - or not.

It's your call.

With few exceptions - I will always pull for the SEC over any other conference.

But I think we should also acknowledge something - something specific to our forum community. We have AUDub, who as a rival member has been a fantastic contributor. Not only because of his immense passion for the sport(s) we discuss here - but also because he's a high quality person.

That's worth a lot in my book.

Hey....it just means more........:wink:

cuda.1973 · Apr 1, 2019

The problem just isn't because it is Awbrens. The bigger problem is Coach Murray Goldberg. None, repeat, none of my friends, around the country, not a single one of which has UA ties, none of them can stand Bruce Pearl. To a man, they all despise him, and feel he is bad for the game.

Put them together, and 2 times 2 suddenly becomes a googolplex.

Bazza · Apr 1, 2019

cuda.1973 said:
The problem just isn't because it is Awbrens. The bigger problem is Coach Murray Goldberg. None, repeat, none of my friends, around the country, not a single one of which has UA ties, none of them can stand Bruce Pearl. To a man, they all despise him, and feel he is bad for the game.

Put them together, and 2 times 2 suddenly becomes a googolplex.

I hear ya. So they don't have to watch - or pull for Auburn - or whatever. No one is forcing them, right?

I don't really care about Pearl, myself. Too busy enjoying the game itself, I guess.

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