Earle, I think he could be 7-6, so long as there's a win over us.
Goes like this: 6-5 headed into the Iron Bowl, which he somehow wins. In the process, he simultaneously destroys our NC chances, and is now 7-5.
But then loses the Shreveport or similar bowl game, for an EOY 7-6.
Another way: they're 5-6 going into the Iron Bowl. They pull the upset, and are now 6-6. They win the resulting loser bowl, and are similarly 7-6.
In either scenario, I think they keep him for the reasons you've already cited....essentially that they hate us more than they love their own team.
Assuming a win over us, for the barn to fire Malzahn, they'd have to enter the IB 4-7 or worse, and therefore not qualify for a bowl even with the upset. Even then, I'm not 100% sure they pull the trigger.
Conversely, with a loss to us, I'm not 100% sure 10-3 would save him. 9-4 almost assuredly wouldn't, again assuming one of the four was to us.
Bottom line: within a wide range of W-L record, Gus Malzahn's tenure comes down to whether they beat us this year.
Let them hate, so long as they fear -- and make stupid personnel decisions as a result of that fear.