Home/Road Splits v. SEC under Saban and some other interesting stats

deliveryman35 said:

Thanks


until Saban breaks through that glass, there will always be somebody to point it out—to date, he has NEVER beaten a very good to great Auburn team, assuming we can all agree 8 wins does not equal very good or great.

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BamaInBham said:

Again, those 8 win teams would have been 9 win teams if AU had won. Not only that, it seems that when they lose to Bama they fall apart and lose their bowl game too. For example, 2016 and 2014 could have easily been 10 win teams but they were 8 win teams. AU is cursed to have to share the state with the greatest college football program of all time, so it's like they have been thrown the bone of a few "perfect storms". AU is a legit top 15-20 type program all-time, but they get massively overshadowed in their own state.

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deliveryman35 said:

Points taken. As stated above by Tide Engineer, I’ll gladly take everything else we’ve got under Saban even if we have to trade some excruciatingly close losses to the barn.

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BamaInBham said:

I doubt anyone, certainly not me, thought you were were not happy with CNS's record. I was addressing the "AU issue" that was being discussed as being misleading and overstated. It's just something that AU grasps (I don't blame them) to try to distract from Alabama's dominance. Some Bama fans fall for it and it causes them to always be nervous re: AU - IMO unnecessarily so. They don't have voodoo, they have a good football program, and "time and chance" have favored them a couple of times in the last decade and '72 and '49. Bama even had it in '84 and '85. The best team wins this game probably 85% of the time, maybe more than almost any other big time rivalry, idk. Few surprises.

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selmaborntidefan said:

Just so we're clear.....LSU's "Saturday Night in Death Vallley" nonsense is one of those myths right up there with the Loch Ness Monster and Alabama's "57-game home winning streak" or "throw out the records for the Iron Bowl."

I've heard about LSU on Saturday night going way back to the late 1970s, and Cholly Mac's refusal to move the 1979 game up for 230pm telecast. It's always been something of a myth for a very good reason: it's one of those areas where thanks to modern CFB and the eight-game SEC schedule, you can run up huge numbers on out of conference cupcakes.

Entering 2018, there was a big deal made (by LSU, of course) that over the previous 13 seasons (starting with Miles's first game), LSU was 78-13 at home. But three of those losses came in 2008, when they played THREE SEC TEAMS that ended the year ranked and lost all 3 of them. And LSU has lost FOUR STRAIGHT games AT NIGHT to Alabama at home, the last two being shutouts.

Who are their ACTUAL WINS? (We'll start with 2017 and go back)

2017 - UTC, 4-8 Syracuse, Troy, ATM - they also played Auburn IN THE DAY TIME, the West champs no less, and beat them.
So, yeah, they were 4-0 at night, but three of those teams didn't have a pulse and ATM wasn't very good anyway (I will give them credit for a decent win, though).

2016 - Jax State, 5-7 MSU who got an undeserved bowl game, 4-8 Mizzou, Ole Miss - and a loss to Alabama
4-1 and lost to the only decent team they played at night at home

2015 - E Michigan, Florida, WKU, ATM, and a loss to Ole Miss
4-1 again, but okay, TWO good wins and a terrible loss makes you 2-1 against decent teams

2014 - Sam Houston St, ULM, N Mex St, 5-7 UK, Ole Miss, and night losses to Alabama and the eventual #1 (for a month) MSU
So 5-2, with one good one and two losses against good teams yet again

2013 - UAB, Kent St, Auburn, Furman, ATM, Arkansas

OK, a pretty good year this time since Auburn played for the title and ATM was good. 6-0, but they'd have beaten four of those teams with their second string probably.

2012 - UNT, Washington, Idaho, Towson, SCAR, MSU wins - and another loss to Alabama
6-1, and okay, they did well against SCAR and Washington and a decent MSU, but it should be noted they had more talent than those teams and beat them in the daytime, too.

2011 was a helluva good football team, and they went 6-0 at home and would have beaten anybody that year at home - possibly even Alabama. So give them full credit here.

2010 - 9-4 MSU, 9-4 WVA, McNeese, ULM..and their last home win over Alabama IN THE DAYTIME no less.

2009 - 2-10 Vandy, ULL, loss to UF, Auburn, Tulane, La Tech, Arky

6-1 and a couple of decent wins over Auburn and Arky

2008 - UNT, 4-8 MSU, Tulane, Troy

Meanwhile, LSU lost to GOOD teams at home at 230 kickoffs against UGA and UA and Ole Miss

4-0 at night, 4-3 overall, but didn't play anyone worth a damn at night anyway

2007 - MSU (decent), Va Tech, MTSU, Florida, Auburn, La Tech

OK, a really good overall year with 3 good foes they beat at night in Red Stick

2006 - ULL, Tulane, UK, Fresno, Alabama, OT vs 4-8 Ole Miss

Solid foe with UK but the rest were not very good at all; Ole Miss may be a rivalry game, but they were 4-8 under Coach O that year

2005 - Vols (lost to them), Florida, Auburn, UNT, App St

A couple of cupcakes and 3 good foes, beating two of them.


But a count of those games above shows that LSU would have had 40 of those 78 wins if the game was played on the polar ice cap at -40 degrees.....and "Death Valley on Saturday Night" didn't have a damned thing to do with it.

I'm not saying they shouldn't brag, but a little context in all things is in order. That drops you to 38-13 against decent foes, which is still a pretty damned good record save for the fact that rare was the game that LSU won where they didn't have substantially more talent than the opponent. Maybe 2007 Florida. Maybe.

I seem to recall it being pretty dark (after the sun went down) in the afternoon game against Ole Miss in 2009. It wasn't Ole Miss that choked at the end of that game, either. And I'm not even saying it's not probably a pretty crazy place to try and play ball. But it's not some Bermuda Triangle/Loch Ness Monster "hmm, does it exist" mystery, either. The venue and the time of the game just don't have a whole lot to do with it.

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