Okay, I know Ive said many times that I dont think Tua can win a Heisman Trophey after losing it the year prior because he would have to eclipse his numbers the year before and it has only happened once in history. But given how Sark and CNS have been calling plays this year, I think it changes my opinion some, but I think it is entirely possible. FTR I want a NC over a Heisman but it would be very nice to have Tua win the award. So here are some pitfalls I see, and some checks he will probably have to mark off to get it. Some are in his control, and some are out of his control.
Check #1: He has to improve on the 2018 campaign:
Here are his 2018 stats:
Here are his current stats
passing
rushing
*** Note: His 2018 stats are after the UGA game because that was the cutoff for Heisman voting
I think he is on pace to have a mammoth season barring an injury or a total slump. If he stays on the current pace then he should break both the TD and yards by week 10.
--- potential pitfall: CNS decides to start working on the run or starts taking him out early against teams that we totally blow out in the 1st half
Check #2: He needs to break one of the coveted Alabama passing records:
This one is one that isn't a must, but breaking either is a tremendous boost to his campaign. Breaking both would most likely win it.
A) the passing yards record:
Tua sits 2,699 yards away. Given his 343.6 yards per game, it would take him until the SECCG to break unless there are a couple more 400 yard games. But it is the hardest one to break
B) The single game record
Tua has been in position twice to break it this year. He shouldve broke it vs USCe. I think he will get more oppurtunities to break it.
Check #3: The Heisman moment
All last year many on here said the Heisman moment was a myth. But it isnt. Tua needs one in a bad way
-- potential pitfall- The problem is that outside UGA and Auburn there really arent many great defenses that we are going to play. Sure you can argue a duel with LSU might be a moment, but I really think a moment is going to be tied to Auburn and UGA. Out of both of those, Auburn maybe the only one. While folks are so dismissive of Auburn keep in mind that they are the only guarenteed team out of the two. UGA could realistically not make it to Atlanta as dumb as it seems. The UF-UGA game will be against teams with top defense and a game between rivals in which crazieness is bound to happen. UGA also has a sneaky game against Mizzou sandwhiched in between UF and Auburn and aTm right afterwards. Kirby in all 3 years has been blown out on the road vs the SECW. Point is UF could steal the East. While UF's defense is good, the game wont be as high on the hype as a rematch between UGA-UA. So as of now, Auburn and Tua are tied at the hip
Check #4: The competition
Right now its Tua, Hurts, and Fields. I think unless Fields is the most hampered of the 3 because of his youth and competition. Tua really needs to blow out Jalen or make them very comparable. Or better yet, hope Jalen drops a few to get a good feeling vs Hurts.
*** Note*** I didnt include Burrows because the Tua-Burrows showdown will decide itself
Check #5: Win the SEC
I think Tua's case more than any contender, Alabama NEEDS the SEC title, and most likely an undefeated season.
Ultimately I think things need to continue to bounce Tua's way, and he needs to continue to produce at the rate they are in order to bring the award back to T-town. Again Im hoping more for the ugly trophy than the Heisman, but getting both would be extra nice.
Check #1: He has to improve on the 2018 campaign:
Here are his 2018 stats:
|
|
Here are his current stats
passing
rushing
*** Note: His 2018 stats are after the UGA game because that was the cutoff for Heisman voting
I think he is on pace to have a mammoth season barring an injury or a total slump. If he stays on the current pace then he should break both the TD and yards by week 10.
--- potential pitfall: CNS decides to start working on the run or starts taking him out early against teams that we totally blow out in the 1st half
Check #2: He needs to break one of the coveted Alabama passing records:
This one is one that isn't a must, but breaking either is a tremendous boost to his campaign. Breaking both would most likely win it.
A) the passing yards record:
| Rank | Player | Yards | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AJ McCarron | 9,019 | 2010 2011 2012 2013 |
| 2 | John Parker Wilson | 7,924 | 2005 2006 2007 2008 |
| 3 | Brodie Croyle | 6,382 | 2002 2003 2004 2005 |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | 6,320[SUP][4][/SUP] | 2017 2018 2019 |
Tua sits 2,699 yards away. Given his 343.6 yards per game, it would take him until the SECCG to break unless there are a couple more 400 yard games. But it is the hardest one to break
B) The single game record
| Rank | Player | Yards | Year | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Hunter | 484 | 1969 | Auburn |
| 2 | Blake Sims | 445[SUP][19][/SUP] | 2014 | Florida |
| 3 | Tua Tagovailoa | 444[SUP][10][/SUP] | 2019 | South Carolina |
| 4 | Tua Tagovailoa | 418[SUP][12][/SUP] | 2019 | Ole Miss |
Check #3: The Heisman moment
All last year many on here said the Heisman moment was a myth. But it isnt. Tua needs one in a bad way
-- potential pitfall- The problem is that outside UGA and Auburn there really arent many great defenses that we are going to play. Sure you can argue a duel with LSU might be a moment, but I really think a moment is going to be tied to Auburn and UGA. Out of both of those, Auburn maybe the only one. While folks are so dismissive of Auburn keep in mind that they are the only guarenteed team out of the two. UGA could realistically not make it to Atlanta as dumb as it seems. The UF-UGA game will be against teams with top defense and a game between rivals in which crazieness is bound to happen. UGA also has a sneaky game against Mizzou sandwhiched in between UF and Auburn and aTm right afterwards. Kirby in all 3 years has been blown out on the road vs the SECW. Point is UF could steal the East. While UF's defense is good, the game wont be as high on the hype as a rematch between UGA-UA. So as of now, Auburn and Tua are tied at the hip
Check #4: The competition
Right now its Tua, Hurts, and Fields. I think unless Fields is the most hampered of the 3 because of his youth and competition. Tua really needs to blow out Jalen or make them very comparable. Or better yet, hope Jalen drops a few to get a good feeling vs Hurts.
*** Note*** I didnt include Burrows because the Tua-Burrows showdown will decide itself
Check #5: Win the SEC
I think Tua's case more than any contender, Alabama NEEDS the SEC title, and most likely an undefeated season.
Ultimately I think things need to continue to bounce Tua's way, and he needs to continue to produce at the rate they are in order to bring the award back to T-town. Again Im hoping more for the ugly trophy than the Heisman, but getting both would be extra nice.
