Question: Will the game vs LSU be "The game of century" 1sv2?

selmaborntidefan said:

I don't think anyone questions that UGA would probably roll SCAR in a rematch - and for the reasons you cite.

That said.....Florida/UGA just became life/death.

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Cruloc said:

I dont see this Alabama D having a ton of success against a QB that is hitting on all cylinders right now. Used to be with our best Ds that it took a hot QB having a great game to beat us. We don't have that great D thing year and Burrow is on fire right now. I think holding them to mid or low 40s and our O not getting slowed down is the only way we win. I'd love for the D to step up and limit Burrow somehow, just dont see that happening with our freshman in the middle. LSU's OC will have 2 weeks to plan lots of confusion for those guys.

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81usaf92 said:

We have a better defense than LSU, and a far better offense than Vandy, UF, and Texas. Im not a sunshine pumper at all, and Im saying this. My prediction is UA 55 LSU 38

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selmaborntidefan said:

Everyone here better brace themselves for the "analysis" (by which I mean "confirmation bias") that's going to work like this:

1) Alabama's defense is not what it usually is (true)
2) LSU's offense is much better than it usually is (true)


The problem, though, is the analysis will stop right there and start making conclusions.
And maybe they're right. But that's still bad analysis - because you also have to figure:

1) Alabama's offense has scored one TD less than LSU (despite the fact we've got more garbage time)
2) LSU's defense

We're surrendering 17 ppg, which would be good for most teams not named Alabama; they're surrendering 21.

You can then start looking at separate data points:
a) Auburn held Florida to fewer points than LSU did (Auburn's D is better than LSU)
b) Oklahoma held Texas to fewer points (3 full TDs) than LSU did
c) Vandy got 38 points on LSU......which is 2 more than they got in 3 games COMBINED against Ole Miss/UGA/Purdue*


* - I realize one argument is going to be that one of Vandy's TDs was after a blocked kick as well as "we put in our backups."
That fails to account for the fact that LSU's backups would be starters at most other SEC schools and substantially better than Vandy.

There are, I'm sure if I took the time, OTHER points that could guide us in a general predictive direction, not infallibly but generally.

Here are the facts:
1) Alabama's offense is equal to LSU's offense
2) Alabama's defense is better than LSU's defense
3) the game is in Tuscaloosa

Unless there is a reason otherwise, you go with the better defense. (It requires mico-analysis to further develop a conclusion).
Is our defense SUBSTANTIALLY better than LSU? Well we're giving up 4 ppg less while they're giving up 20 yards per game MORE.

The 4 ppg is far more substantial than 20 yards, which is 1/4 of one TD drive. Of course, it's more substantial after 12 games than after
only six, too, since one game can skew the data. Entering last night, Florida was scoring 32.3 ppg, and LSU held them to four points below that.

If LSU holds us to 4 points under our average of 51, we will score 47 points.


Anyone think LSU beats us if we do score 47 points? (Again - don't take this too much because it requires more than just simple looks at single games, you have to look at all of the main games and subtract cupcake games that skew the data, too).


I think - at this point - we win something like a 35-27 rumble.

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Saban4Ever said:

I hope you are right. I will take a win, even if by 1 point (but I will surely have anxiety during the game

Let's just hope Bama has NO MORE INJURIES by then. It has been a miracle Bama has had no serious injuries the past 2 games or during the bye week. If we have any more injuries on defense, especially at inside linebacker, it won't be easy.

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selmaborntidefan said:

While I know his relative unpopularity here (and I'm by no means a fan), here's a portion of Clay Travis summarizing the 2011 LSU-Alabama game.

Read this and tell me you think something like this is going to happen a month from now:





Prior to the game even starting Alabama and LSU fans staged the most epic tailgate scene in college football history. I’ve been all over the country for football — attended some of the biggest games in the largest stadiums in the country — and I’ve never seen anything like this.

If a sports fan was in Tuscaloosa and lived above the Mason-Dixon line, he’d never go back North after today.

It was that amazing.

Everyone was here. Leonardio DiCaprio, Snoop Dogg, LeBron James, over 250 private jets, the most ever, rolled into Tuscaloosa’s tiny airport and lined up one after another. The top 1% occupied Tuscaloosa, in their jets and on the field.

Tuscaloosa police signed up for 20 hour shifts, the longest since the tornado. Expectations were that 400-500 fans would be arrested before the night ended.

Riding on a polaris at noon a police officer turned to me and said, “It’s noon and it’s already crazier than it’s ever been here.”

Everyone was in T-Town.

============================

It was a communication and sensory overload, one that made Tuscaloosa feel a bit like Mardi Gras in November or the South’s own Woodstock. Alcohol was consumed at levels without equal anywhere in the country, a massive party ensued on every square foot of Alabama’s campus, it was the perfect storm of Southern football — beautiful women, blue skies without a cloud to be found, fanatical football fans, and generations come to worship at the altar of Bryant-Denny stadium.


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I'm sorry, but THIS isn't going to happen.

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Cruloc said:

I dont see this Alabama D having a ton of success against a QB that is hitting on all cylinders right now. Used to be with our best Ds that it took a hot QB having a great game to beat us. We don't have that great D thing year and Burrow is on fire right now. I think holding them to mid or low 40s and our O not getting slowed down is the only way we win. I'd love for the D to step up and limit Burrow somehow, just dont see that happening with our freshman in the middle. LSU's OC will have 2 weeks to plan lots of confusion for those guys.

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