Kirby vs Richt in the first 4 years
- Thread starter 81usaf92
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Can't argue with real data..............the perception might be that KS has improved their program, but the numbers indicate a different story. Crazy how close their records really are.
I think the only think that really stands out with these records is, disregarding CMR's last year and Kirby's first year, Kirby's SEC record is superior. This probably can be attributed to his better recruiting, which he learned is so important from CNS.
While I'll probably be rooting for UF to win the SECE this year, more than likely at the end of the year it'll be Georgia's 3rd straight trip to Atlanta.
Here's the top 25:
MARK RICHT (12-8)
2001 - #21 SCAR, #6 Tenn, #6 Florida, #24 Auburn, #21 Ga Tech (2-3)
2002 - #22 Alabama, #10 Tenn, #24 Auburn, #22 Arky, #16 FSU (5-0 with a loss to unranked Florida)
2003 - #25 SCAR, #11 LSU, #13 Tenn, #23 Florida, #3 LSU, #12 Purdue (3-3, 2 losses to national champ LSU and one to Florida)
2004 - #13 LSU, #17 Tenn, #3 Auburn, #16 Wisky (2-2, lost to Vols and the Barn)
KIRBY SMART (10-8)
2016 - #22 UNC, #23 Ole Miss, #11 Tenn, #14 Florida, #8 Auburn (2-3, lost Ole Miss, Tenn, and Florida)
2017 - #24 Notre Dame, #17 Miss St, #10 Auburn, #4 Auburn, #2 Oklahoma, #4 Alabama (4-2, losses to #10 Auburn and Alabama in the CFPNCG)
2018 - #24 SCAR, #13 LSU, #9 Florida, #11 Kentucky, #1 Alabama, #15 Texas (3-3, losses to LSU, Bama, and Texas)
2019 - #7 Notre Dame (1-0)
Richt faced two teams in the top five (2003 LSU, 2004 Auburn) and was 0-2.
Smart has faced four teams in the top four (2017 Auburn/OU/Alabama and 2018 Alabama) and is 2-2.
TOP 10
Richt 2-3
Smart 5-3
You are correct, sir. Thanks.
(I tend to block out what happened at the 2018 NCG)
I don't know what UGA fans have to complain about so far. Would it be the two heart-breaking losses to Bama? The fact that UGA went toe-to-toe against Bama twice in championship games during this streak that Coach Saban has put together is something to be proud of. In the last two seasons, Kirby has two SECCG appearances and a NCG appearance. He also has an SEC championship under his belt. UGA shouldn't have lost to South Carolina, but I don't think it's a sky-is-falling kind of loss. Most teams drop a game to an unranked team from time to time. UGA is getting a lot out of Kirby and I don't think it would be reasonable for UGA fans to expect anymore.
Well, I don't disagree, but think about it differently. Alabama is, for all intents and purposes, their only rival right now. They can beat everyone else, but if they lose to Alabama, all of those other wins amount to nothing. Why? Because we not live in a CFP world, where conference championships no longer matter. All that matters is national championships. And GA has to go through Alabama to get there.
So far Kirby has lost every game against Alabama. Really, that is all that matters. So the fans are disappointed, and likely to remain so until Saban retires, no matter who they have running their program.
As bad as I hate to admit that an SEC championship doesn't mean as much today, you're right. CNS has even stated that it's easier to win a NC than a SECC.
Ironically, if it turned out that Georgia's only loss was to USCe and yet they didn't make the SECCG (I don't know if this is even statistically possible in the SECE) it would possibly be to their advantage not to have to play us/LSU or whoever the West rep is.
Obviously alot of that would depend on how Georgia plays out the rest of their regular season schedule. That said, I have a feeling with OU and your Buckeyes playing so well that this loss for them is going to be a bad omen for their CFP chances.
First, anyone who mocks the Kirby hire is doing a bit of a reach in my opinion. He clearly was a good hire for Georgia.
Having said that, it does feel like he's burning through the resources he was given and it remains to be seen how he does on his own two feet. Remember, he didn't just inherit a lot of talent from Richt, he basically stole all the info Alabama had on recruits. Then, he did some underhanded things to get players.
Problem is, he's running out of Richt's players, and he's also running out of Alabama's evaluations of recruits. How does his team look when he's solely responsible for its composition? It would also be nice if the East could provide some sort of challenge.
Having said that, it does feel like he's burning through the resources he was given and it remains to be seen how he does on his own two feet. Remember, he didn't just inherit a lot of talent from Richt, he basically stole all the info Alabama had on recruits. Then, he did some underhanded things to get players.
Problem is, he's running out of Richt's players, and he's also running out of Alabama's evaluations of recruits. How does his team look when he's solely responsible for its composition? It would also be nice if the East could provide some sort of challenge.
My guess is that the unrest is not so much a complaint about what he has accomplished to this point but the gnawing suspicion that he lacks what it take to be a top coach. There are apparently several serious flaws. IMO, it's true. At the risk of repeating myself, here are a few.
- Offensive strategy or approach.
- DL evaluation and development - maybe other positions. (I don't blame him for staying with Fromm over Fields. It's hard to unseat a successful incumbent starter. Even though he's not elite like a few insist, Fromm is a good college QB whose strengths fit Smart's conservative/IMO, outdated offensive approach.)
- In-game decisions: everyone makes mistakes but he seems to fail time after time. And the fact he vacillates between very safe and reckless indicates that it's just not natural to him.
I don't think that any UGA fan is upset with the way that Richt's first 4 years went. Richt had arguably the best 4 year record of any first time D1 head coach. Simply put, it was not Richt's first 4 years that got him fired.
A coach has to have years of experience to gain knowledge just as a player does
now, before I begin below.... I am NOT!! and never will say that Kirby (or any other coach for that matter) is superior to Saban and what he has accomplished
Below is some reputable coaches and their first 3 years plus their 4th year through game 6
Kirby: 8-5 then 13-2 with an SECC followed by 11-3 with a current 5-1. Total record of 37-11 and SECC
Saban: 6-5 then 6-6 followed by 7-5. In his fourth year he was 3-3 through game six. Total record of 22-19
Dabo: 9-5 then 6-7 followed by 10-4 and In his fourth year he was 5-1 through same six. Total record of 30-17
Urban Meyer: 8-3 then 9-3 followed by 10-2. In his fourth year he was 5-1 through game six. Total record of 32-7
Jimbo: 10-4 then 9-4 followed by 12-2. In his fourth year he was 6-0 through game six. Total record of 37-10 and a national title
Mike Grundy: 4-7, then 7-6, followed by 7-6. In his fourth year he was 6-0 through game six. Total record of 24-19
Les Miles: 4-7, then 8-4, followed by 9-4. In his fourth year he was 5-1 through game six. Total record of 26-16
Mack Brown: although he had 3 years of previous experience at App state and Tulane, we will start with North Carolina for him. 1-10, then 1-10, followed by 6-4. In his fourth year he was 4-2 through game six. Total record of 12-26
Gene Chizik: 3-9, then 2-10, followed by 8-5. He was then 6-0 in his 4th year on his way to win the national title. Total record of 13-24 with a national title and SECC. Gene is arguably the worst coach to have ever won a national title
Lincoln Riley: 12-2, then 12-2 and current 6-0 (in his 3rd year) hard to give a true comparison, but a great coach without a doubt.
Below are some reputable coaches and how long it took them to win a national title
Fisher: 4th
Gene Chizik: 4th
Hayes: 4th
Urban Meyer: 6th
Les Miles: 7th
Saban: 8th
Dabo: 9th
Edwards: 13th
Paterno: 17th
Bear Bryant: 17th
Holtz: 19th
Brown: 21st
Osborne: 22nd
Bowden: 24th
Kirby is 1 of only 2 coaches in the SEC to have a winning record vs top 10 teams
A coach has to have years of experience to gain knowledge just as a player does
now, before I begin below.... I am NOT!! and never will say that Kirby (or any other coach for that matter) is superior to Saban and what he has accomplished
Below is some reputable coaches and their first 3 years plus their 4th year through game 6
Kirby: 8-5 then 13-2 with an SECC followed by 11-3 with a current 5-1. Total record of 37-11 and SECC
Saban: 6-5 then 6-6 followed by 7-5. In his fourth year he was 3-3 through game six. Total record of 22-19
Dabo: 9-5 then 6-7 followed by 10-4 and In his fourth year he was 5-1 through same six. Total record of 30-17
Urban Meyer: 8-3 then 9-3 followed by 10-2. In his fourth year he was 5-1 through game six. Total record of 32-7
Jimbo: 10-4 then 9-4 followed by 12-2. In his fourth year he was 6-0 through game six. Total record of 37-10 and a national title
Mike Grundy: 4-7, then 7-6, followed by 7-6. In his fourth year he was 6-0 through game six. Total record of 24-19
Les Miles: 4-7, then 8-4, followed by 9-4. In his fourth year he was 5-1 through game six. Total record of 26-16
Mack Brown: although he had 3 years of previous experience at App state and Tulane, we will start with North Carolina for him. 1-10, then 1-10, followed by 6-4. In his fourth year he was 4-2 through game six. Total record of 12-26
Gene Chizik: 3-9, then 2-10, followed by 8-5. He was then 6-0 in his 4th year on his way to win the national title. Total record of 13-24 with a national title and SECC. Gene is arguably the worst coach to have ever won a national title
Lincoln Riley: 12-2, then 12-2 and current 6-0 (in his 3rd year) hard to give a true comparison, but a great coach without a doubt.
Below are some reputable coaches and how long it took them to win a national title
Fisher: 4th
Gene Chizik: 4th
Hayes: 4th
Urban Meyer: 6th
Les Miles: 7th
Saban: 8th
Dabo: 9th
Edwards: 13th
Paterno: 17th
Bear Bryant: 17th
Holtz: 19th
Brown: 21st
Osborne: 22nd
Bowden: 24th
Kirby is 1 of only 2 coaches in the SEC to have a winning record vs top 10 teams
again, just to confirm... I am not and never will say that Kirby is superior to Saban. Kirby may be a constant 11-1 to 10-2 regular season coach similar to Richt's first 4 years and honestly, I would be ok with that. It was the consistent 8-4 seasons later in his tenure that was Richts downfall in the program
I Believe, but could be wrong... that Kirby has a better win percentage vs top 10 and top 25 teams than any coach in the SEC other than Saban of course... and yes that includes Fisher
(Not too many 8 win seasons for Richt - even late. He won 10 or more 4 of his last 5 seasons. Not saying a change was wrong or that CKS has not improved things.)
I'm sure you know this but the reason the records that you present don't mean that much is that Kirby was given a boatload of talent (something few of the coaches to whom you compared him had), but more importantly he is sitting on a goldmine. He deserves credit for getting buy-in from the UGA admin and community. He's focused and driven. But the primary reason for doubt regarding him is his continual mental shortcomings. Talent evaluations, in-game mgmt that fails at an alarming rate, his insistence on an anachronistic offensive approach, not taking advantage of the massive talent he has assembled, etc. He falls short in strategy and tactics. He will likely improve but it does not seem that he has the mental capacity to improve enough. In some ways he is possibly in over his head such that time will not solve all of his issues. I think that is what really troubles some of the more perceptive UGA fans. His record is fine and will probably continue to be but there may be great waste.
Good analysis and it is hard for me to disagree with anything that you listed. Kirby does need time to grow as a head coach and only time will tell if he has the ability to: learn, adapt and change.
Many UGA fans are being irrational to expect national championships within the first 4 years of a new coach... especially with a coach like Saban in a neighboring state
It's fascinating to watch. No one really knows how things will unfold. 2 things we do know - he has a very good record, with great accomplishments, and he has hiccupped in multiple high-pressure moments.
If there is one stat that I would be alarmed with if I was UGA, then it would be that he is 0-3 in regular season SECW road games, and getting blown out by an average of 40-16.
One proposal above argues we should be comparing Smart's first four years with Richt's last four.
That's hardly fair, either.
Kirby is in his first head coaching job at a huge school JUST AS RICHT WAS IN 2001.
Comparing Richt's last four years are comparing his time as a head coach with 12-15 years's experience against a fresh face.
It's fair to say Richt inherited a lesser team than Smart did.
On the other hand, it's not like Georgia was all that bad when Richt took over, either. People are conflating the Ray Goff era with the Jim Donnan era.
Donnan was 40-19 (.677) and went 4-0 in bowl games.
Richt was 39-13 (.750), but if you subtract the four cupcake games added when the SEC let them expand the schedule around 2004 (games Donnan didn't get to run up his numbers),
Richt was 35-13 (.729).
Did Smart take over a better team than Richt did? Yes.
Was it substantially better, though? No.
Richt took over an 8-4 team, Smart took over a 10-3 team.
That's hardly fair, either.
Kirby is in his first head coaching job at a huge school JUST AS RICHT WAS IN 2001.
Comparing Richt's last four years are comparing his time as a head coach with 12-15 years's experience against a fresh face.
It's fair to say Richt inherited a lesser team than Smart did.
On the other hand, it's not like Georgia was all that bad when Richt took over, either. People are conflating the Ray Goff era with the Jim Donnan era.
Donnan was 40-19 (.677) and went 4-0 in bowl games.
Richt was 39-13 (.750), but if you subtract the four cupcake games added when the SEC let them expand the schedule around 2004 (games Donnan didn't get to run up his numbers),
Richt was 35-13 (.729).
Did Smart take over a better team than Richt did? Yes.
Was it substantially better, though? No.
Richt took over an 8-4 team, Smart took over a 10-3 team.
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