Time to think about next season?

81usaf92 · Nov 10, 2019

BamaFanTN said:
Lets think about this, we have had no close call wins and fell 5 points short to the best team in the country with a quarterback fresh off surgery and spotted the team 10-14 points. Explain to me how that doesn't compare favorably to Oklahoma? Or any other 1 loss team for that matter.

Right now here is the pecking order-

1. Ohio St/ Minnesota undefeated or tOSU/ PSU 1 loss champ
2. LSU undefeated or Georgia 1 loss champ
3. Clemson undefeated
4a. PAC 12 champ with 1 loss and that major championship game at the end
4b. Alabama 11-16. Oklahoma 1 loss or Baylor undefeated

I think on Tuesday it will be this

1. LSU/tOSU
2. LSU/ tOSU
3. Clemson
4. UGA
5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma
9. Minnesota
10. Penn St

deliveryman35 · Nov 10, 2019

81usaf92 said:
Right now here is the pecking order-

1. Ohio St/ Minnesota undefeated or tOSU/ PSU 1 loss champ
2. LSU undefeated or Georgia 1 loss champ
3. Clemson undefeated
4a. PAC 12 champ with 1 loss and that major championship game at the end
4b. Alabama 11-16. Oklahoma 1 loss or Baylor undefeated

I think on Tuesday it will be this

1. LSU/tOSU
2. LSU/ tOSU
3. Clemson
4. UGA
5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma
9. Minnesota
10. Penn St

How does Georgia become part of the discussion when they have a huge upset loss at home?

81usaf92 · Nov 10, 2019

deliveryman35 said:
How does Georgia become part of the discussion when they have a huge upset loss at home?

Because it will mean that they beat Florida at a neutral site, Auburn on the road , and beat LSU in Atlanta. UGA has the advantage of making up for their sins every year, while Alabama cant afford to lose to either LSU or Auburn every year. Georgia's resume would be the best in the nation if they win out.

BamaHoosier · Nov 10, 2019

I’m not ready to give up and move on from 2019 just yet. We are backed into a corner, but we still have a strong chance to rally back.

From here on out though, this team has to gel and play angry. Now is the time that strong leadership needs to emerge, especially on defense. We looked lost and flat for a long time last night and that can’t happen again. Since our resume does us no favors, the committee will be looking at how we win if we win out. To have a chance at getting back in the hunt, we have to obliterate our last 3 opponents.

Most importantly, LSU has to beat UGA in the SECG. If UGA wins it there’s really not a scenario where we aren’t eliminated.

If UGA loses to Auburn and wins the CG with 2 losses, we’re burnt as theres no chance two 1 loss, non-champions from the same conference will get in. If UGA has 1 loss, they’ll be conf champions with wins against Notre Dame, Florida, and LSU and would be guaranteed a spot. LSU also would still get in as they’d still have the best resume of any 1 loss team.

Our fate is now in the hands of a lot more teams than it should be, but the fact we still have hope, still puts us ahead of 95% of teams in the country. Let’s enjoy the ride while we can, regardless of the outcome.

Roll Tide

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KrAzY3 · Nov 10, 2019

One little update.

Sagarin's (the most reputable BCS computer) has Alabama at #3.
I'd be feeling pretty good about Alabama's hopes right now if it was the BCS formula, because Alabama would still be well positioned. Sagarin has Auburn at #10, and Miss. St at #38. The issue is with no conference championship game that Auburn one is just about all they can look to, to improve their resume.

Hope isn't gone, but while my tone was that of dejection part of what I was getting at is this team needs to change some things. Even if they make it into the playoffs, Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU are going to be tough. So I really hope Alabama goes on a tear to finish the season, and that the committee is objective enough to reward that, but we'll see.

CoolBreeze · Nov 10, 2019

Murky view at this point of the season. Looks like:

1. OSU
2. Clempson
3. SEC Champ
4. ?

We just need to get ready for Mississippi State next weekend.

92tide · Nov 10, 2019

BamaFanTN said:
Lets think about this, we have had no close call wins and fell 5 points short to the best team in the country with a quarterback fresh off surgery and spotted the team 10-14 points. Explain to me how that doesn't compare favorably to Oklahoma? Or any other 1 loss team for that matter.

at least we didn't lose to south carolina at home.

KrAzY3 · Nov 10, 2019

92tide said:
at least we didn't lose to south carolina at home.

The thing I really hate about the committee is they can decide what counts and what doesn't count. Assuming Alabama wins out but doesn't get in, I believe they'll be the only one loss team with that loss coming to a top 4 team to end up left out of the playoffs. If we're ranking a loss on a scale of 1-10, the Alabama loss to LSU is a 1. Oklahoma's loss to Kansas St. is probably about a 4 or 5, Oregon's loss to Auburn is about a 3. Georgia's loss to South Carolina is 6 or so.

Losses are really where the committee loses me. Sometimes it's like they barely count (when Auburn was top 4 with two losses for example). I remember one loss Oregon being ahead of Florida St. That loss was to Arizona, hardly the stature of the LSU matchup for example but the committee didn't really care much that they lost at all. I can follow a lot of their logic and their thinking, but how they treat losses is something I have trouble following. They choose when they count.

Ledsteplin · Nov 10, 2019

rolltd said:
No its time to think about Miss State

No, it's time for the coaches and players to think about Miss St. We're just fans on a discussion board. Pretty sure we'll have threads on Miss St, as soon as we're done licking our wounds.

81usaf92 · Nov 10, 2019

KrAzY3 said:
Losses are really where the committee losses me. Sometimes it's like they barely count (when Auburn was top 4 with two losses for example). I remember one loss Oregon being ahead of Florida St. That loss was to Arizona, hardly the stature of the LSU matchup for example but the committee didn't really care much that they lost at all. I can follow a lot of their logic and their thinking, but how they treat losses is something I have trouble following. They choose when they count.

That FSU team was getting into needless shootouts vs teams that had no business being ahead. Oregon was better and deserved to be ranked higher due to their schedule and performance.

GeorgiaTider · Nov 10, 2019

KrAzY3 said:
....unless Alabama becomes so reliant on Tua that they just forget what to do without him.

I think we are this point now. This is not a slam on any player or coach. Watching yesterday's game reminded me of watching the Big 12.

KrAzY3 · Nov 10, 2019

81usaf92 said:
That FSU team was getting into needless shootouts vs teams that had no business being ahead. Oregon was better and deserved to be ranked higher due to their schedule and performance.

They played a lot of competitive games, but it's more that their offense wasn't scoring a ton of points. They still played and beat teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, and an 11 win Georgia Tech. It just goes back to whether or not losses matter.

If you look at 2017 Auburn, when their losses didn't matter, they only beat Mercer by 14, they only scored 6 against Clemson, they had multiple losses, but hey they beat Alabama right? The problem being they lost to LSU, who Alabama beat (by 14). Alabama looked better throughout the year, Alabama beat a team that beat Auburn, we now know Alabama was absolutely the better team (Auburn finished with four losses), but the committee decided that Alabama's loss mattered, a lot but Auburn's loss to LSU didn't really matter at all.

I just can't get a clear read on when they decide to count them. If we're going by 2014 rules, then may be Alabama should be ranked ahead of Clemson, but I'm betting that won't happen.

MOAN · Nov 10, 2019

The best path for Bama to get in the playoff and frankly most likey to happen at this point, is for LSU, Ohio State to win out, undefeated conference champs. If Clemson loses a game then they should fall out of the top 25 with that schedule LOL!!!

So you would have LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson holding the top 3 spots with one spot to go to the best 1 loss team. That would probably come down to Alabama as long as Bama wins out and beats Auburn at home. Baylor is undefeated but look at there remaining schedule and see if you believe they will stay unbeaten, and I doubt Oklahoma wins our the rest of the way especially after yesterdays scare at home against Iowa State. A one loss Oregon PAC 12 champion who's one loss would be to the team Bama would have just beaten should Bama win out??

Bama is not out of the equation by a long shot! And if we get in we have shown that if we can get off to a good start instead of a bad start like we did yesterday, we can win a shoot out against anyone!! Long way to go!!

DzynKingRTR · Nov 10, 2019

I am hoping for absolute chaos the next 3 weeks. I don't know why all of you want lsu to win out and think that somehow helps us. It doesn't. What we really need is for the corndogs to lose 2 games. Keep hope alive!

MOAN · Nov 10, 2019

DzynKingRTR said:
I am hoping for absolute chaos the next 3 weeks. I don't know why all of you want lsu to win out and think that somehow helps us. It doesn't. What we really need is for the corndogs to lose 2 games. Keep hope alive!

LSU ain't losing 2 games. Look at their remaining schedule.

LSU would get in over Bama with a loss to Georgia even if Georgia wins the SEC with 2 losses. Georgia still has to play Auburn at Auburn. Would a 2 loss SEC champ Georgia get in over a one loss Bama not even a division champ? That would be a good question! Best leave it out of the committee's discretion by LSU winning out in my opinion.

92teamownsall · Nov 10, 2019

Is Saban going through what Mark Richt did at Georgia? He had great teams but when he went up against elite talent he seemed to get outcoached. Just like us when playing Clemson and now LSU

CoachJeff · Nov 10, 2019

Bama has the best loss of anyone, but they have no good wins and likely won’t have any. Beating 8-4 Auburn won’t be seen as redemption. Bama doesn’t have any opportunity to show they’re a great team. They played *one* good team through 9 games and lost, looking poor for most of it.

CoachJeff · Nov 10, 2019

92teamownsall said:
Is Saban going through what Mark Richt did at Georgia? He had great teams but when he went up against elite talent he seemed to get outcoached. Just like us when playing Clemson and now LSU

You’re going to get roasted for that but you’re pretty accurate. Saban has the most NFL talent this year just like last year but got smoked against simiar teams.

CajunCrimson · Nov 10, 2019

CoachJeff said:
Next year Bama has UGA and AU at home and LSU on the road. There’s a good chance Bama loses 2 regular season games next year for only the second time in the past 12 years.

But at the same time we get a 5* back at RB. Ray back on the DL. McKinney may come back. Plus solid play at corner and both starting LBs. I had hoped devonta would be back. But now two 200 yard games likely says no.

Is won’t be easy. But freshmen grow up. And develop. And UGA loses a ton. Auburn’s DL leaves. LSUs offense will be depleted. And their studs on defense will mostly be leaving.

KrAzY3 · Nov 10, 2019

92teamownsall said:
Is Saban going through what Mark Richt did at Georgia? He had great teams but when he went up against elite talent he seemed to get outcoached. Just like us when playing Clemson and now LSU

I honestly don't think that's it so much as Alabama lost their way a bit.

I posted this several times but kind of gave up on posting it. Alabama's previous Saban championships were almost all on the back of a dominant running back and a game managing quarterback. Now, that doesn't mean you can't compliment it with an elite QB, that's not it. But you have to be able to reign him in. It's one thing when you're down big, then you have to take risks, but against a Clemson, LSU, or Georgia (easy to forget but Tua would have lost that game last year to) you can't be making costly turnovers and forcing the ball. Alabama put the team in the hands of the QB and he played amazingly most of the time.

The problem is most of the time isn't good enough to win championships. Alabama didn't need to turn their team into Oklahoma to take advantage of Tua's abilities, or any other elite QB. You still want a dynamic passing attack, but you need to get back to fundamentals, not just waiting for the QB to make a play. If Alabama does that they should be fine.

Time to think about next season?

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