I often find myself writing something after a loss, so bear with me, I beg your indulgence. I'm not entirely sober, please overlook any more errors than usual. Also, I'm not attempting to place blame on an individual basis or encourage that, because Alabama wins and loses as a team. I'm not trying to discredit Alabama's success this year, but we all know there are high standards.
I'm proud of Alabama fighting and coming back. It keeps a sliver of hope for both Alabama's playoff and Tua's Heisman chances. However, Alabama isn't good enough to give LSU that lead. Tua made two crucial mistakes that cost the team at least 10 points, and that was just too much to come back from. In both instances he took an unnecessary risk. It's a shame because so much talent was wasted, not the least of which being Tua's who had a fantastic second half.
I am a little taken aback because I expected Alabama to really try to protect Tua early. Rely on the running game, limit his exposure, and early on try to give him a lot of easy opportunities. He wasn't 100% and that wasn't his fault. Instead we saw a lot of what we're used to seeing, Tua dropping back and trying to make a play, despite LSU bringing a lot of pressure.
I'm usually one of the first people to point out that Alabama still has a shot at a championship after a loss. The problem is Alabama just doesn't have the SoS this year. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Miss. State aren't good enough to give the usual boost. Thanks to the ACC screwing Alabama with the Duke matchup, Alabama doesn't have much to lean on. Arkansas losing to Western Kentucky made things worse, and South Carolina failing to beat App. State didn't help either. If the committee doesn't give Alabama serious bonus points because Tua wasn't 100% healthy, this might be it. Short of a lot of carnage, I don't see a clear path.
Obviously some of this stuff isn't the fault of anyone currently with the program, sometimes it's just bad luck, or bad calls. One of Saban's biggest challenges at Alabama is that he never actually gets to rebuild. His teams are always contenders, and he can't hit the reset button. No matter how many key players he loses to the draft and injuries there are, no matter how many assistants he loses, he has to do what ever it takes to get his team competitive. That takes a toll. I was thinking about why some coaches have success taking over for a program, and one reason is they get to hit that reset button. Kirby Smart as Georgia is a good example, he had the luxury of being able to come in and change everything he didn't like. Sometimes that produces instant results, sometimes it takes a few seasons, but Nick Saban can't afford to turn things upside down.
Alabama got outcoached at both coordinator positions in the first half. Given the instability at coordinator, that's no big surprise, but it's also what happened against Clemson in both halves. Elite talent is one thing, but it's not easy to win when the other team has better coaching. I don't know what the solution to that is, but rather than be caught off-guard by coaching defections later in the process, now might be a good time to start figuring out how to get better performance from the coordinators. I'm not trying to second guess Saban, but this is something that's costing Alabama dearly at this point.
I don't want to say I told you so, because at points even I bought into it, huge passing numbers are intoxicating. But, all those concerns about a gunslinger quarterback and a offense reliant on the quarterback have been realized, twice. As supremely talented as Tua is, he and well pretty much anyone just isn't going to be good enough to continually take risks and never pay a price for it. Turnovers happen, drops happen, and you have to limit the risks. You have to pick your shots, and Tua hasn't learned that level of restraint. I'm not asking for Hurts 2.0, but Alabama needs to get quarterback play that doesn't put the outcome in jeopardy unnecessarily.
I thought Alabama would spend the spring and fall creating a more balanced and risk averse offense. Yes, they had a massive weapon in Tua, but they could have complimented it better with a strong running game. Furthermore, they could have focused more on low hanging fruit and time of possession. Alabama demolished teams, Tua put up Heisman worthy stats, like last year, but they failed to establish a consistent running game and yet again they didn't really reign in Tua. Alabama was content to throw TDs in blowouts when they could have been working on other things. Some people thought Alabama would never lose with Tua, and if Alabama has been able to use him appropriately that might have been the case. Instead, Alabama transformed their team into something that looked more like Oklahoma than what we saw from most of the past championship teams. Alabama gained an elite offense but gave up 40+ to Clemson and LSU in the process.
How do you fix that? Tua's departure forces the issue, but can Alabama get back to being dominant on defense and having a strong running game, without giving up important gains made in the passing game? Fields at Ohio State is showing us that you can put up really impressive numbers without forcing the ball. He's only thrown one pick this year, he's only completed 20 passes once this year, but his play has been fantastic and Ohio State has the top offense in college football. It isn't that Fields can't do more, but why should he? That, not an Oklahoma like offense is the model to follow.
There's no good reason for Alabama to not turn to the running game now. Worst case scenario it protects Tua more. Best case scenario Alabama rediscovers the ability to power it in, in the red zone and a more balanced offense. If it doesn't make a difference this season, it might next season when Alabama won't have Tua to lean on. Alabama lost time of possession by nearly 9 minutes against LSU, despite only 18 less yards and that's been another consistent problem. They need to regain control of the clock.
The kicking game has been a train wreck. What's new? I don't even know how to solve that, other than just benching Reichard for the rest of the season. He's the best place kicker by a mile, but he has to get healthy. Alabama might as well keep giving Perine reps at punter. The botched punt is an example of why he wasn't given a shot sooner, but at this point what is there to lose? If he can become a little more consistent, he might be the long term solution at the position.
I could go on, but there are problems. They shouldn't wait until the third quarter, in such a big game, and this late in the season to unleash their supremely talented running back. Why could Najee average 7.7 per rush and not get more touches? Why is Tua still trying to force the ball in close games? We saw a similar movie before during the Clemson game (unforced errors, Najee averaged 6.6 on only 9 carries), but this Alabama team is too good have this kind of result. They've given up 40+ twice in the past 10 games. If that's the new reality, consistent success (by Alabama standards) will become nearly impossible. If they can get back to Alabama football though, this dynasty isn't over.
I'm proud of Alabama fighting and coming back. It keeps a sliver of hope for both Alabama's playoff and Tua's Heisman chances. However, Alabama isn't good enough to give LSU that lead. Tua made two crucial mistakes that cost the team at least 10 points, and that was just too much to come back from. In both instances he took an unnecessary risk. It's a shame because so much talent was wasted, not the least of which being Tua's who had a fantastic second half.
I am a little taken aback because I expected Alabama to really try to protect Tua early. Rely on the running game, limit his exposure, and early on try to give him a lot of easy opportunities. He wasn't 100% and that wasn't his fault. Instead we saw a lot of what we're used to seeing, Tua dropping back and trying to make a play, despite LSU bringing a lot of pressure.
I'm usually one of the first people to point out that Alabama still has a shot at a championship after a loss. The problem is Alabama just doesn't have the SoS this year. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Miss. State aren't good enough to give the usual boost. Thanks to the ACC screwing Alabama with the Duke matchup, Alabama doesn't have much to lean on. Arkansas losing to Western Kentucky made things worse, and South Carolina failing to beat App. State didn't help either. If the committee doesn't give Alabama serious bonus points because Tua wasn't 100% healthy, this might be it. Short of a lot of carnage, I don't see a clear path.
Obviously some of this stuff isn't the fault of anyone currently with the program, sometimes it's just bad luck, or bad calls. One of Saban's biggest challenges at Alabama is that he never actually gets to rebuild. His teams are always contenders, and he can't hit the reset button. No matter how many key players he loses to the draft and injuries there are, no matter how many assistants he loses, he has to do what ever it takes to get his team competitive. That takes a toll. I was thinking about why some coaches have success taking over for a program, and one reason is they get to hit that reset button. Kirby Smart as Georgia is a good example, he had the luxury of being able to come in and change everything he didn't like. Sometimes that produces instant results, sometimes it takes a few seasons, but Nick Saban can't afford to turn things upside down.
Alabama got outcoached at both coordinator positions in the first half. Given the instability at coordinator, that's no big surprise, but it's also what happened against Clemson in both halves. Elite talent is one thing, but it's not easy to win when the other team has better coaching. I don't know what the solution to that is, but rather than be caught off-guard by coaching defections later in the process, now might be a good time to start figuring out how to get better performance from the coordinators. I'm not trying to second guess Saban, but this is something that's costing Alabama dearly at this point.
I don't want to say I told you so, because at points even I bought into it, huge passing numbers are intoxicating. But, all those concerns about a gunslinger quarterback and a offense reliant on the quarterback have been realized, twice. As supremely talented as Tua is, he and well pretty much anyone just isn't going to be good enough to continually take risks and never pay a price for it. Turnovers happen, drops happen, and you have to limit the risks. You have to pick your shots, and Tua hasn't learned that level of restraint. I'm not asking for Hurts 2.0, but Alabama needs to get quarterback play that doesn't put the outcome in jeopardy unnecessarily.
I thought Alabama would spend the spring and fall creating a more balanced and risk averse offense. Yes, they had a massive weapon in Tua, but they could have complimented it better with a strong running game. Furthermore, they could have focused more on low hanging fruit and time of possession. Alabama demolished teams, Tua put up Heisman worthy stats, like last year, but they failed to establish a consistent running game and yet again they didn't really reign in Tua. Alabama was content to throw TDs in blowouts when they could have been working on other things. Some people thought Alabama would never lose with Tua, and if Alabama has been able to use him appropriately that might have been the case. Instead, Alabama transformed their team into something that looked more like Oklahoma than what we saw from most of the past championship teams. Alabama gained an elite offense but gave up 40+ to Clemson and LSU in the process.
How do you fix that? Tua's departure forces the issue, but can Alabama get back to being dominant on defense and having a strong running game, without giving up important gains made in the passing game? Fields at Ohio State is showing us that you can put up really impressive numbers without forcing the ball. He's only thrown one pick this year, he's only completed 20 passes once this year, but his play has been fantastic and Ohio State has the top offense in college football. It isn't that Fields can't do more, but why should he? That, not an Oklahoma like offense is the model to follow.
There's no good reason for Alabama to not turn to the running game now. Worst case scenario it protects Tua more. Best case scenario Alabama rediscovers the ability to power it in, in the red zone and a more balanced offense. If it doesn't make a difference this season, it might next season when Alabama won't have Tua to lean on. Alabama lost time of possession by nearly 9 minutes against LSU, despite only 18 less yards and that's been another consistent problem. They need to regain control of the clock.
The kicking game has been a train wreck. What's new? I don't even know how to solve that, other than just benching Reichard for the rest of the season. He's the best place kicker by a mile, but he has to get healthy. Alabama might as well keep giving Perine reps at punter. The botched punt is an example of why he wasn't given a shot sooner, but at this point what is there to lose? If he can become a little more consistent, he might be the long term solution at the position.
I could go on, but there are problems. They shouldn't wait until the third quarter, in such a big game, and this late in the season to unleash their supremely talented running back. Why could Najee average 7.7 per rush and not get more touches? Why is Tua still trying to force the ball in close games? We saw a similar movie before during the Clemson game (unforced errors, Najee averaged 6.6 on only 9 carries), but this Alabama team is too good have this kind of result. They've given up 40+ twice in the past 10 games. If that's the new reality, consistent success (by Alabama standards) will become nearly impossible. If they can get back to Alabama football though, this dynasty isn't over.
