Possible Playoff Scenarios - with Bama

Tug Tide said:

I assume that if the committee thought Utah/OK were better than Bama they would have them ranked above us already

Click to expand...

I may be wrong but I'm beginning to think that Alabama is in if they win barring a Ohio State over Wisconsin type beatdown from Utah or Oklahoma.

It was funny though to hear the ESPN guys try to hype up Minnesota, like really? Everybody and their momma knows their path (if they beat Wisconsin) goes through Ohio State and Ohio State will mop the floor with the Gophers.

RammerJammer15 said:

I may be wrong but I'm beginning to think that Alabama is in if they win barring a Ohio State over Wisconsin type beatdown from Utah or Oklahoma.

It was funny though to hear the ESPN guys try to hype up Minnesota, like really? Everybody and their momma knows their path (if they beat Wisconsin) goes through Ohio State and Ohio State will mop the floor with the Gophers.

Click to expand...

I can still see them jumping Bama with a 1 loss conference champion. Especially if the boys barely beat Auburn. Just have a feeling they are looking for any combination of excuses to rearrange things in that final ranking.

Cruloc said:

I can still see them jumping Bama with a 1 loss conference champion. Especially if the boys barely beat Auburn. Just have a feeling they are looking for any combination of excuses to rearrange things in that final ranking.

Click to expand...

How many iron bowls in the last ten years have been decided by 7 or less points? Let’s be realistic, a W by 7-14 is a thrashing in this game.

Tug Tide said:

I assume that if the committee thought Utah/OK were better than Bama they would have them ranked above us already

Click to expand...

They have both played weaker schedules, with weaker wins and losses to bad teams.

B1GTide said:

They have both played weaker schedules, with weaker wins and losses to bad teams.

Click to expand...

The more I look at this, Bama needs to treat the Auburn game almost like a first round game in an eight team playoff. A win Saturday and you advance to the semis.

IF*** the goal is to identify “the best four teams” then how do you keep Bama out over a one loss Utah (loss to USC) or one loss Oklahoma (loss to KSU and “bullet dodging” with Baylor, ISU & TCU), even if they are conference champs? The Bama loss being to #1 or #2 ranked team (depending on which poll) by five points?

*** Unless the goal is to find the best four teams NOT named Alabama......

CB4 said:

The more I look at this, Bama needs to treat the Auburn game almost like a first round game in an eight team playoff. A win Saturday and you advance to the semis.

IF*** the goal is to identify “the best four teams” then how do you keep Bama out over a one loss Utah (loss to USC) or one loss Oklahoma (loss to KSU and “bullet dodging” with Baylor, ISU & TCU), even if they are conference champs? The Bama loss being to #1 or #2 ranked team (depending on which poll) by five points?

*** Unless the goal is to find the best four teams NOT named Alabama......

Click to expand...

Bama has been in EVERY playoff because it was one of the 4 best. They’ve held true to their original goal and mission IMO so far. Until otherwise proven I’ll trust they’ll keep doing the same.

Tug Tide said:

I assume that if the committee thought Utah/OK were better than Bama they would have them ranked above us already

Click to expand...

My understanding is that the committee does not project out but ranks teams based on what has taken place up to the time of the rankings. If a team just below Bama gathers a quality win while Bama does not, that team has a chance to move up the next week.

So Oklahoma is probably our biggest concern. We probably need them to lose to Oklahoma State.


Utah is no longer a concern to me. If they beat Oregon it will be the same as us beating Auburn. As long as the scoring margins are similar we shouldn't have to worry about Utah as long as we beat Auburn.

Obviously, we also need LSU to beat Georgia. And as long as they don't choke they should.

Beat Auburn and we have a chance. Think I saw that Alabama has a 47% chance of making the CFP and a 65% chance if they can beat Auburn.

Outside of that, after seeing not one of our players was selected as a finalist for anything.....not one thing....just have this feeling if Utah or Oklahoma don't lose again that Bama won't make #4 even with LSU beating Georgia. I think they are looking for any reason to not move Bama up.

We are favored by 4 at Auburn....really the only question going in is how does Mac respond to the environment and DL pressure. If he handles it well and settles in....we win by 2 scores. If he starts expecting the pressure we are in trouble, he won't go through his progressions. How does he respond if he throws a pick?

Ultimately, yes how the OL handles their DL is a big part of the game, but LINE PLAY is always a big part of EVERY game....but how Mac does is how we go. Hate that all the pressure is on him like that, but that's what you come to Bama for, moments like this in a big game.....rise up and you become a legend.

Two things are possible (this is assuming we beat Auburn and the 3 unbeaten hold serve this week and championship week):

1. Either the committee thinks Bama is currently the best 1 loss team not named Georgia and that's why we've stayed at #5 since our loss to LSU.

2. OR, the committee is playing games with these rankings and they are wanting to please the masses in the last poll and suddenly jump another 1 loss team over us for the bang of it.

#2 "could" be true, but I don't think so. Win and we are in cause it's #1.

RollTide_HTTR said:

So Oklahoma is probably our biggest concern.

Click to expand...

I’m thinking this too. This is especially true after I saw where they dropped Baylor. Personally I’m not seeing them as a top 10 school at all but the Big 12 needs help this year. A lot of help. They say they don’t project... whatever! I’m thinking OU is the backup for Bama should Bama lose. I don’t care what they say they do not want Utah versus anybody in that playoff!!!!

BamaMoon said:

Two things are possible (this is assuming we beat Auburn and the 3 unbeaten hold serve this week and championship week):

1. Either the committee thinks Bama is currently the best 1 loss team not named Georgia and that's why we've stayed at #5 since our loss to LSU.

2. OR, the committee is playing games with these rankings and they are wanting to please the masses in the last poll and suddenly jump another 1 loss team over us for the bang of it.

#2 "could" be true, but I don't think so. Win and we are in cause it's #1.

Click to expand...

I'm concerned that #2 might actually play out simply due to Bama fatigue. This could be the year that the committee reverts back to hanging its proverbial hat on conference champions and jumps Oklahoma or Utah in ahead of us because of that argument.

Honestly, I think the only way we get in is (a) beat Auburn, and (b) another loss by both Utah and Oklahoma. Assuming LSU, Ohio State and Clemson all win out, the committee would have absolutely no choice but to include us in that scenario.

Cruloc said:

I can still see them jumping Bama with a 1 loss conference champion. Especially if the boys barely beat Auburn. Just have a feeling they are looking for any combination of excuses to rearrange things in that final ranking.

Click to expand...

I think some thought will be given to the absence of Tua i.e. is Bama one of the 4 best teams without Tua

TexasBama said:

I think some thought will be given to the absence of Tua i.e. is Bama one of the 4 best teams without Tua

Click to expand...

If we beat Auburn it shouldn't matter. Especially if we beat them big

bamacon said:

I think the message of the committee was very clear...Bama is in if they win!

Click to expand...

Tug Tide said:

I assume that if the committee thought Utah/OK were better than Bama they would have them ranked above us already

Click to expand...

And the curtain finally falls on those ridiculous conspiracy theories.

TexasBama said:

I think some thought will be given to the absence of Tua i.e. is Bama one of the 4 best teams without Tua

Click to expand...

If you beat Auburn, the answer will be a clear yes. None of the other teams trying to land that spot could beat Auburn in their house.

If you lose, the answer will also be a clear one.

The fact that Baylor jumped to #9 is huge for OU. Assuming we win out ( a big assumption ) it would add a top 10 win to our list of top 25 wins. We would be a one loss conf. champion. Auburn would be the Tide's only top 25 win and they will still not be conf. champs. If Utah beats Oregon ( not a cinch ) that gives them only one top 25 win. For the Tide to get in, in my opinion, OU needs to lose to the Pokes and then beat Baylor in the CCG & Oregon needs to beat Utah. Obviously, the Tide must beat Auburn.

owenfieldreams said:

The fact that Baylor jumped to #9 is huge for OU. Assuming we win out ( a big assumption ) it would add a top 10 win to our list of top 25 wins. We would be a one loss conf. champion. Auburn would be the Tide's only top 25 win and they will still not be conf. champs. If Utah beats Oregon ( not a cinch ) that gives them only one top 25 win. For the Tide to get in, in my opinion, OU needs to lose to the Pokes and then beat Baylor in the CCG & Oregon needs to beat Utah. Obviously, the Tide must beat Auburn.

Click to expand...

Agreed. The only caveat I'd make is if we blow the doors of Auburn it makes the argument more interesting. Right now Oklahoma has the clearest path to the playoff outside of the top 3 and Georgia.