Possible Playoff Scenarios - with Bama

81usaf92

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Apr 26, 2008
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That's exactly what they've done in the past, though. In 2014 TCU was 3rd enterting the final week then dropped to 6 despite winning by like 40 points.

They will essentially argue that they didn't know Oregon was "better" than Alabama until they saw them beat a #6 ranked Utah to clinch the conference championship.
You are forgetting a few things about 2014. Mainly the last week of the season and who TCU lost to.
 

81usaf92

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Apr 26, 2008
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Oh and another thing. Guess who the Chairman of this CFP committee is... if they put Oregon in after Bama hangs 30-40 on the Barn on the plains then there will be hell to pay for the CFP. Unless the CFP really wishes to expand right now then I doubt Alabama is passed over for Oregon unless there is some serious bias.
 

bamaltc

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Dec 8, 2010
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If LSU wins out in a big way and we win out in a big way, we will be in the conversation on selection night. The only one-loss team with who played toe to toe with the top ranked team.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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Best thing is none of the teams in contention for the #4 spot will have a better loss than us. Most teams won't have a better win as long as we beat AU.

Really, if Utah and Oregon both drop a game between now and the end of the year I think we're a shoe in. That's not really that far fetched. We've made it in as a non-SEC champion needing a lot more help than we do now with 4 weeks of the season to go..
That's the big part. It would really help if Auburn beats Georgia which seems like a pretty legitimate possibility.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Nov 30, 2015
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You are forgetting a few things about 2014. Mainly the last week of the season and who TCU lost to.
I'm not forgetting it. I'm specifically referencing it. Ohio State murdered Wisconsin and leapfrogged BOTH teams that were ranked ahead of it, and once it was clear Baylor and TCU were co-champs Baylor jumped TCU too (because they won the head to head.)

That's my point -- that even if we're ranked higher than Oregon tomorrow night (I think we will be) that doesn't necessarily matter because they'll use conference title weekend to shake it up to how they want it. We know they're capable of doing this because they've done it before.
 

VernonTider

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Nov 9, 2019
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That's the big part. It would really help if Auburn beats Georgia which seems like a pretty legitimate possibility.
I hate to pull for Auburn, but I agree; that was what I was thinking, plus it takes Georgia down another peg with another loss. I will only pull for Auburn if it helps Alabama -- and I think that's a very rare case, but it's true here.

I just looked at the schedules of both Oregon and Utah. More than likely, they'll both just have one loss when they play.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Oh and another thing. Guess who the Chairman of this CFP committee is... if they put Oregon in after Bama hangs 30-40 on the Barn on the plains then there will be hell to pay for the CFP. Unless the CFP really wishes to expand right now then I doubt Alabama is passed over for Oregon unless there is some serious bias.
I think you're viewing this through the perspective of a Bama fan. The average fan perceives a bias in favor of Alabama and the SEC and most of them didn't want us in in 2017. Putting 11-1 Alabama in over 12-1 conference champions will raise more ire and be more controversial than the other way around.
 

Ledsteplin

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Guys, this is my first post; I'm a long-time lurker. I grew up in NW Alabama, live out in Kilgore, Texas now, and I trust this site for Alabama news much more than I do anything else, mainly because of bias against the Tide.

I've got to say this: I am surprised by the amount of "we're probably out" that I'm hearing.

Georgia lost to SOUTH CAROLINA. Oregon lost to AUBURN.

I honestly think when the rankings come out Tuesday, it'll be LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, even though I don't think Georgia should be there. Oklahoma barely beat Iowa State and Oregon was off.

If we win out -- 11-1 -- means we'd have beaten Auburn IN Auburn. That trumps Oregon's neutral site loss to Auburn in the season opener. If LSU beats Georgia, a pretty good assumption, I think, and Ohio State and Clemson win out, I believe we'll be the fourth team. The committee's job is to take the four best teams but it's also for the best ratings. What do you think the ratings for a 1 LSU versus 4 Alabama rematch would be?

I know morale is down around here right now, understandable. I know I'm a new poster. Y'all don't write us off.
Are you from Vernon?
 

VernonTider

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Nov 9, 2019
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LOL, depends on why you're asking...

;)

Just kidding, man. Yeah, I am, Vernon, Alabama, not Vernon, Texas. Seems every state has a Vernon.
 

TIDEnGA

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Sep 25, 2007
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As many of you have stated my biggest concern is Oregon. If they beat Utah they could be trouble. They would only have the loss to auburn at the very beginning of the year (long long time ago) on basically the last play of the game with a conference championship to boot. Granted they only have a 4point win over #25 Washington, but if Utah stays highly ranked they'd have that feather in their cap too. The committee doesn't want Oregon and definitely doesn't want Utah. They could argue away Utah with a conference championship but not Oregon. It would be too funny though if the last possession loss to auburn by Oregon is the one thing that gets us in. :p

And let me rewind big time for a moment. Right now WE just need to concentrate on beating Mississippi State then auburn. WE all need to refocus and remember what we learned about tackling among all other mistakes. I left out Western Carolina, but I'm hoping that's a given. Heck, throw them in there as well. Let's destroy EVERYONE.
 
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Cruloc

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Sep 1, 2019
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I think you're viewing this through the perspective of a Bama fan. The average fan perceives a bias in favor of Alabama and the SEC and most of them didn't want us in in 2017. Putting 11-1 Alabama in over 12-1 conference champions will raise more ire and be more controversial than the other way around.
Would be ironic if Bama got that 4th seed, played LSU and beat them....within 2 years there would be an 8 team playoff. Didnt take long after everyone was upset about the 2011 rematch to go from BCS to playoff.
 

KrAzY3

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I was tempted to make a post about it, but there's just so many things that need to break the right way. Things almost turned out fairly well last week with Oklahoma and Baylor nearly losing. That would gone a long way towards what needs to happen, happening.

Aside from the nearly impossible happening and Clemson tripping on a nobody (ESPN has their win out % at 83.9), it's easier to say what can't happen. Minnesota has to lose, Baylor has to lose, and Georgia has to lose.

In terms of who needs to win, Ohio State (if not it could open up a slot for another Big 10 team), LSU (one loss won't help) and yes you want Auburn to win out. I don't hate Auburn more than I like Alabama, they lose and it hurts Alabama's chances of a championship.

Then if all that goes right, you still have to hope for a little more help, mainly you don't want 1 loss teams playing each other in conference championship games. You want at least one team in there with 2 losses.
 
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VernonTider

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Nov 9, 2019
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Saw on Finebaum where Tim Brando has us EIGHTH and Georgia 10TH.

Brando has been an Alabama hater at least since my time in college in the late 80s, and this "poll" destroys whatever credibility he had left. He never had any with me.
 

81usaf92

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Apr 26, 2008
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Saw on Finebaum where Tim Brando has us EIGHTH and Georgia 10TH.

Brando has been an Alabama hater at least since my time in college in the late 80s, and this "poll" destroys whatever credibility he had left. He never had any with me.

Ive personally met Brando twice, and neither time did I feel he was smarter than a 5th grader. He is a Corndog thru and thru, and he can never make an opinion based in fact over an emotional one when it comes to Alabama or Georgia.
 
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KrAzY3

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Saw on Finebaum where Tim Brando has us EIGHTH and Georgia 10TH.

Brando has been an Alabama hater at least since my time in college in the late 80s, and this "poll" destroys whatever credibility he had left. He never had any with me.
The thing I hate about the committee is you just need one guy in the room like that to ruin the whole thing. Alabama is 4th in both polls, and they would have been 4th in the BCS standings right now. All we'd really need to hope for have a playoff lock would be for Minnesota, Georgia, and Oregon to lose.

We're not in that world though, so they can justify putting any one loss team above Alabama if they want. They have enough options in terms of what they can prioritize that they can basically justify any choice they make.
 

tide96

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We want them all to win out. Auburn beating Georgia would help A LOT.

Then there is one spot left. If Baylor is 13-0, they get it, after that, if Utah or OU at 12-1, they probably get it over us. We MIGHT get it over a 12-1 Oregon with the Auburn thing, but that would be tight. If both the Pac-12 and Big-12 champs have two losses, we are almost a lock.

A lot of things we can't control, but not done yet.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Would be ironic if Bama got that 4th seed, played LSU and beat them....within 2 years there would be an 8 team playoff. Didnt take long after everyone was upset about the 2011 rematch to go from BCS to playoff.
It feels like we're already trending in that direction, but I agree that would be a big catalyst. The Pac-12 and Big XII (assuming they had one loss champs) would raise a stink.
 

CajunCrimson

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1/2 LSU
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We want them all to win out. Auburn beating Georgia would help A LOT.

Then there is one spot left. If Baylor is 13-0, they get it, after that, if Utah or OU at 12-1, they probably get it over us. We MIGHT get it over a 12-1 Oregon with the Auburn thing, but that would be tight. If both the Pac-12 and Big-12 champs have two losses, we are almost a lock.

A lot of things we can't control, but not done yet.
Baylor won't beat OU......they can't score enough......
 

deliveryman35

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Jul 26, 2003
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We have the best loss of any of the ‘one loss’ teams. As long as it stays that way—and we win out—then I think we have a chance to get in.
 

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