I think this will be strong with the committee. However, we need someone in the Top 4 to lose a game... :cool2
Possible Playoff Scenarios - with Bama
- Thread starter CajunCrimson
- Start date
I agree. We'll see what precedent the committee sets tomorrow night. I can't believe they'd follow Brando's stupid path and drop us big. I would be shocked (which means nothing, I guess) if they drop us farther than fifth. We don't give up that last touchdown, and Smith's late-game TD is the game-winner, even after all of our mistakes.
Do we deserve to get in? Well, does Oregon? Who have they beat? Who has Utah beat? I'll grant Georgia the Notre Dame win, but look at their loss! What about Oklahoma's loss? How good does that Texas win look now for OU?
I agree with you guys that say we need LSU (no question) and Ohio State to win out. I think Clemson's going to, regardless. That would leave one spot. I don't know that we trump a Pac-12 champion, and I'm pretty sure we don't trump an undefeated Baylor-Big 12 champ. But I don't believe Baylor will go undefeated. I'm counting on folks wanting to see more Alabama-LSU, with a healthy Tua, to give us the upper hand in a tiebreaker situation with Oregon or Utah.
I think it's possible WE are number four. It's not the be-all, end-all, but tomorrow night will tell a tale. Doesn't mean someone can't jump us later, though.
If they put Alabama 5th, that's already a major problem because it's a team that has to lose for Alabama to get in. Right now at least Alabama can cling to hope that they get in over a one loss Oklahoma or Oregon, but if they're already ahead of Alabama that's a big problem. About the only team that won't matter much with would be Georgia, but even then it's just about respect. We need the committee to show respect for Alabama because if they don't, Alabama is in trouble. There's going to be some other one loss teams no matter what, that's fairly certain so the committee needs to like Alabama.
One thing to listen for is if any mention of Tua's injury is made. Yes, a conference champion is part of their criteria, but so are injuries! I hate both those things, but in this case two wrongs could make a right. If they factor in Tua not being 100% that opens the door a little wider for Alabama.
If Alabama is 5th, any team that they might put at #4 would be in line to play another team in the top 4, so not a problem. GA, PSU, MN - all have dates with destiny.
No way I believe Minnesota will win out, not beating Wisconsin and no way in heck they beat Ohio State, in my opinion. Baylor and OU likely will play twice, unless Baylor just completely collapses between now and the Big 12 title game. Might help if we root for a split. A one-loss Baylor doesn't jump a one-loss Alabama, I don't think, because of the perception of the Big 12 being a weaker conference. A two-loss OU, even with a Big 12 title (as in, they lose to Baylor Saturday, then beat them in the title game) doesn't jump Alabama, either.
A one-loss Oregon COULD get in over us, but again, I'd argue an 11-1 Bama means we beat AU at Jordan-Haire, and they couldn't beat 'em in Arlington.
A one-loss Oregon COULD get in over us, but again, I'd argue an 11-1 Bama means we beat AU at Jordan-Haire, and they couldn't beat 'em in Arlington.
While that's true in terms of just looking at the standings in a more traditional sense, as you know the committee can move teams around whenever they want for what ever reason they want.
The lower Alabama is ranked, the more the committee is signaling that they don't think much of them. Even then, there's a lot of complicated stuff that can go on. For instance what if Minnesota is undefeated going into their conference championship game. What if Penn State beats Ohio State? Alabama needs all the cushion they can get, heh.
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We also need to see who is play who during Western Carolina week -- as if other teams are playing rivals, and we are playing a cupcake, that's where we can lose ground
You will only go backward during championship weekend, if it happens at all. Everyone will notice another dominating win - even over a cupcake. It will show the voters that Alabama is still Alabama.
All in all, I feel pretty good considering......
I think the step out/step in TD that LSU got, coupled with the Tua fumble/bad ankle, and the fact that LSU looked like the second best team after half-time....all will play into the minds of the committee......
Accurate assessment although it'll be tough to blow out Auburn. Their defense is too good. I don't think we can lay 40 on them since LSU only managed 23. If we can win something like 28-14 I'll take it.
or lsu lose to ole miss and texas a&m and we win the West. I like my scenario better.
FYI if this does happen, I will definitely have to give Kate Upton a call.
Neither can I but I don't have a problem pulling for their opponent to lose if it helps us. RTR.
We really need to beat them (and the refs) silly to have a shot. Not an easy task at JH.
Short of something really whacky happening, like Minnesota or Baylor winning out, it is probably going to come down to us vs. either Oregon or Utah, assuming all win out apart from the loser of the PAC 12 championship. On paper we should look better than whichever of them wins the PAC 12, with a better loss, a tougher schedule, and in Oregon's case, a better outcome against a common opponent. If Auburn beats UGA and/or we beat Auburn convincingly, that helps too. But this isn't accounting for Bama fatigue. If the Committee decides that they want to take any credible excuse to keep us out, then we are out unless there is an insane string of upsets that leaves them no choice but to take us.
Overall I'd give us about a 25 per cent chance. I do think if we get in we'll be playing with house money and our hair on fire.
Overall I'd give us about a 25 per cent chance. I do think if we get in we'll be playing with house money and our hair on fire.
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