Possible Playoff Scenarios - with Bama

An Auburn win vs Georgia would help some, yes.

The big ones to watch I think will be Oregon and Utah. I'm hoping Oklahoma and Baylor split, but I can see Baylor losing twice. Minnesota will lose once or twice. Penn State will likely lose to Ohio State. Georgia likely loses to LSU. The teams left are Alabama, Oregon, and Utah.

Oregon remaining schedule:
vs Arizona (4-5)
at Arizona State (5-4)
vs Oregon State (4-5)

They could lose any three, but I'd guess the most hopeful of the 3 would be Arizona State on the road.

Utah remaining schedule:
vs UCLA (4-5)
at Arizona (4-5)
vs Colorado (4-6)

UCLA still has a shot at the South division...if they win out they play Oregon, I think. They'd be tied and have both tiebreakers.

Oregon winning out and being a 12-1 Pac 12 champion with a loss to Auburn in the first game of the season is what keeps Bama from #4 if it happens. I just don't see Utah winning out. Oregon I think has a chance.

Assuming we win out, and LSU beats UGA, I think it all comes down to the Pac12. I'm hoping Oregon beats Utah in a game where both teams play poorly and maybe the Ducks pull it out on a fluke play or a bad call of some sort. Otherwise, I think they jump us for the #4 slot.

mlh said:

Assuming we win out, and LSU beats UGA, I think it all comes down to the Pac12. I'm hoping Oregon beats Utah in a game where both teams play poorly and maybe the Ducks pull it out on a fluke play or a bad call of some sort. Otherwise, I think they jump us for the #4 slot.

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Besides Utah and Auburn, which top 25 teams did the ducks play? If they do win out and we handily beat Auburn, then I think we keep ahead fo them based on us having mire quality opponents. At least I hope.


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BamaFlum said:

Besides Utah and Auburn, which top 25 teams did the ducks play? If they do win out and we handily beat Auburn, then I think we keep ahead fo them based on us having mire quality opponents. At least I hope.


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I think the committee would consider the win over Utah, who would be #7, would trump our win over Auburn. Add in the conference title and you have the justification to move them ahead of us.

That's why I hope they both play poorly and obviously don't pass the 'eye test' as well as we do.

This post assumes that LSU finishes the regular season 12-0, and Bama finishes 11-1 with solid wins over MSU and Auburn. It helps me think about this more clearly to lay out various scenarios that would affect our chances of getting in for better or worse.

Thought experiment #1: If UGA wins out and upsets LSU. UGA and LSU definitely in. Any way in for us? I say no, unless Clemson is shocked by someone, and even then I'm skeptical the committee would ever go with three SEC teams.

Thought experiment #2: Ohio State loses to Penn State or Michigan, but wins the B10 championship game. No way that gets us in over OSU.

thought experiment #3: UGA loses to Auburn, then upsets LSU. LSU is in regardless, UGA is out with two losses. Our win over Auburn takes on a lot of extra value, and we are almost definitely in. This is the scenario that gives us the best chance (note that I'm not saying it is the most likely scenario).

Thought experiment #4: What happens if Minnesota or Baylor shock the world and run the board? If it is Minnesota, I think they are in, Ohio State is in if that is their only loss, and we are out. If it is a 13-0 Baylor, I think it is a toss-up between them and us. It will probably turn on whether their win or wins over Oklahoma are convincing or flukish. If they both finish 13-0, the End Times are here so it doesn't matter if we are in the playoffs or not.:wink:

Thought experiment #5. The most likely scenario: UGA and Bama both beat Auburn, but Bama does so by a wider margin. LSU wins out including handling UGA. Oregon or Utah finish 12-1 PAC 12 champions, and Oklahoma finishes the 12-1 Big 12 champ. Then we find out if the committee has already pre-baked a decision that it will take a one-loss B12 or PAC 12 champion over a one-loss non SEC champion. If they truly want the four best teams, we will be in.

If Auburn beats UGA this weekend then our chances tick up a bit, because thought experiment #3 becomes a less remote possibility, and our body of work under scenarios 4 and 5 looks more impressive.

Blueguitar said:

thought experiment #3: UGA loses to Auburn, then upsets LSU. LSU is in regardless, UGA is out with two losses. Our win over Auburn takes on a lot of extra value, and we are almost definitely in. This is the scenario that gives us the best chance (note that I'm not saying it is the most likely scenario).

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That is a pretty enticing scenario. I'd wonder if the committee might then get weird about Georgia (or an Auburn team that won out) though. They put a 2 loss Auburn team above 1 loss Alabama and that wasn't even with their magical bonus conference champion stuff.

KrAzY3 said:

That is a pretty enticing scenario. I'd wonder if the committee might then get weird about Georgia (or an Auburn team that won out) though. They put a 2 loss Auburn team above 1 loss Alabama and that wasn't even with their magical bonus conference champion stuff.

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I disagree with blueguitar this is our best chance to get in.

I think an undefeated #1 ranked LSU after the conference championship weekend is our best argument. We played half a game against the very best team and barely lost.

Honestly, I would really rather just play the Golden Gophers or Sooners in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, and call it a season. If that’s the case I can actually afford to go to the game.

dWarriors88 said:

Honestly, I would really rather just play the Golden Gophers or Sooners in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, and call it a season. If that’s the case I can actually afford to go to the game.

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Than to have a chance to play for a NC? I mean it's your prerogative Bobby Brown but I guess I don't understand.

dWarriors88 said:

Honestly, I would really rather just play the Golden Gophers or Sooners in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, and call it a season. If that’s the case I can actually afford to go to the game.

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So you would rather Alabama be eliminated from the CFP so you can afford to see them play in a nothing bowl game? I have seen Alabama play in a few nothing bowl games. They are not as much fun as you think they are.

B1GTide said:

So you would rather Alabama be eliminated from the CFP so you can afford to see them play in a nothing bowl game? I have seen Alabama play in a few nothing bowl games. They are not as much fun as you think they are.

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\

Plus we tanked the last two times we ended up out of the playoffs and in the Sugar Bowl. We usually play our best when we have something to play for.

BamaMoon said:

I disagree with blueguitar this is our best chance to get in.

I think an undefeated #1 ranked LSU after the conference championship weekend is our best argument. We played half a game against the very best team and barely lost.

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You may be right. My main point, which others have also made, is that Auburn beating Georgia helps us, by giving us a chance to build a stronger resume while knocking Georgia out of it.

Blueguitar said:

You may be right. My main point, which others have also made, is that Auburn beating Georgia helps us, by giving us a chance to build a stronger resume while knocking Georgia out of it.

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Yes, agree it would be better for Auburn to beat Georgia. But LSU beating Georgia, in the SECCG, I think would be preferable for our chances and would likely set up the "Rematch"

'bama probably sneaks in at number four if they win out convincingly and LSU wins out. Take all personal bias out of it.
1) The top 5 teams in the SEC are better than the top 5 teams in any other conference
2) Therefore, a one loss team in the SEC whose only loss is by less than a touchdown to the undisputed number one team in the country has a better loss than any other one loss team would have. Especially when the franchise quarterback of the one loss team was rusty and coming off recent surgery. No one loss team in the Pac 12, Big 12 or B1N can honestly say that their loss is better than bama's

BamaMoon said:

Yes, agree it would be better for Auburn to beat Georgia. But LSU beating Georgia, in the SECCG, I think would be preferable for our chances and would likely set up the "Rematch"

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Obviously the above is correct. LSU needs to win out for 'bama to get in to playoffs.

Watch for upsets in the Pac 12, too. Oregon has a cupcake schedule but Utah doesn't. Utah has to play three pretty good teams and Utah just isn't that good. Zona has Utah at home and if their QB gets untracked he could beat them almost singlehandedly. UCLA has consistently had much higher rated recruiting classes than Utah and could upset them. Then 2 loss Utah could beat Oregon. Voila.

dWarriors88 said:

Honestly, I would really rather just play the Golden Gophers or Sooners in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, and call it a season. If that’s the case I can actually afford to go to the game.

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If that is the case, a lot of Bama players probably won't play because of the upcoming NFL draft. It is what they do now. BTW, the Sugar Bowl matchup will be an SEC and BIG12 game if I am not mistaken.

cubzwin said:

Obviously the above is correct. LSU needs to win out for 'bama to get in to playoffs.

Watch for upsets in the Pac 12, too. Oregon has a cupcake schedule but Utah doesn't. Utah has to play three pretty good teams and Utah just isn't that good. Zona has Utah at home and if their QB gets untracked he could beat them almost singlehandedly. UCLA has consistently had much higher rated recruiting classes than Utah and could upset them. Then 2 loss Utah could beat Oregon. Voila.

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If Utah loses a game, then manages to beat Oregon for the Pac-12 championship, that should get us the #4 spot, providing LSU beats UGA.

Ya'll seen LSU doing interviews about the game this past weekend? They are being reckless.... I"m not sure if they are completely focused on this weekend game.

JustNeedMe81 said:

Ya'll seen LSU doing interviews about the game this past weekend? They are being reckless.... I"m not sure if they are completely focused on this weekend game.

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I think LSU really made it tough for themselves going forward. The way they're acting, they way they're talking, they didn't win anything yet, but don't tell them that. All the more reason for Auburn to beat Georgia though, I don't want an LSU slip up to take Alabama down with them.