Possible Playoff Scenarios - with Bama

PA Tide Fan said:

I'll give UGA credit for Florida but I don't think ND is much better than TAMU.

Click to expand...

Still, the win over FL would be enough. Doesn't matter - they are not making the CFP this year. The 4th spot is still up for grabs.

Just win!

Oregon and Utah sitting right behind us worries me. One of those two will be the Pac-12 champion. Neither should lose the games they have left on their schedule. So one of them should finish with only 1 loss and a conference championship.

TIDE-HSV said:

The ratings just dropped and we're #5. If LSU takes care of business, we'll be #4...

Click to expand...

Well, personally I'm hoping the Barn will take care of business this week and knock Georgia out. Then we can move up, beat an improved rank Barn team, then hopefully that would allow us to hold on to the #4 spot. I don't like all the talk about BAMA getting to #4 but not being able to hold it.

B1GTide said:

:willy_nilly:

Click to expand...

Not sure what you imply, but I think it’s reasonable to assume undefeated and 1-loss conference champions will have a decided edge over a 1-loss non-champion with at best 2 “quality” wins. We absolutely need some chaos. To think otherwise I think is fooling yourself.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Saban will claim he does not keep up with the rankings, but he probably does (or someone on his staff has told him). I am sure the players know too. I just hope this motivates them to dominate in every aspect. Chaos does need to happen with other teams, but Bama also needs to win out and look great doing it, especially on defense. Auburn will be a challenge, especially if they do beat UGA and are hyped up.

I just hope that the players still play dominate if Bama happens to make a bowl game instead of the playoffs. I do not want Bama to play OU.

As others have mentioned, if we win out then we need Ohio st and LSU to be no worse than one loss conference champs as well. The problem is that the probability of Ohio st beating Penn St coupled with LSU beating UGA is probably less than 50% chance of that happening.

If we beat Auburn, especially if we do so convincingly, then I don’t think we have to worry about the PAC12 champ. My amateur committee member mind leads me to believe that a win over Auburn and A&M trumps anything Utah or Oregon have. The fact that they will play each other and that one of them has to win shouldn’t result in either going ahead of us.

Oklahoma is interesting even though the committee doesn’t think much of them right now. If they go scorched earth against Baylor, Ok St and Baylor again, then they could be a problem. I just get the sense that the committee is kind of sandbagging them right now.

I think our best option is Auburn over UGA. Ole Miss upsets LSU, Bama wins out, then UGA beats LSU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Saban4Ever said:

Saban will claim he does not keep up with the rankings, but he probably does (or someone on his staff has told him). I am sure the players know too. I just hope this motivates them to dominate in every aspect.

Click to expand...

You're right that he would never own up to it, nor should he, but once you lose control of your own destiny then I think you have to start paying attention to the rankings. As crazy as it sounds, it probably does impact game management.

BamaSC said:

I think our best option is Auburn over UGA. Ole Miss upsets LSU, Bama wins out, then UGA beats LSU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

I like this scenario! Let's make it better.... A&M also beats LSU. Then Bama beats UGA and is SEC Champion!
Hey.... Stranger things have happened in football!

deliveryman35 said:

We have ZERO quality wins. Who you play in the regular season matters.

Click to expand...

Clemson says, "Hi."

selmaborntidefan said:

Clemson says, "Hi."

Click to expand...

Yes, but...
Defending champion and undefeated and will be conference champion. If they lose, they are absolutely done.

Keeter said:

Tim Brando is already whining about the eye test and Bama privilege.........what a crybaby

Click to expand...

Yeah, let's see...

TB:
The CFB Playoff Committee has all their cronies on TV all day preparing everyone for Alabama privilege tonight. There’s no doubt they’ll drop only 1 or 2 spots. Committee will claim “eye test” and forget their non Conference schedule. An embarrassment! I dropped em’ 5 spots.



1) Brando has actually advocated for G5 teams - most notably UCF - to get into a playoff.

The moment he did that, he lost all ability to argue "but the schedule."

2) He's apparently not got a very good memory AT ALL.


In 1993, Florida State was an unbeaten #1.
They went to South Bend and lost, 31-24, in a game they were down by 21 points in the fourth quarter and came back.
When they lost, FSU only dropped TO NUMBER TWO in the poll.

Why?

Because most voters thought they were the best team in the country despite the loss.

The very next week, Notre Dame lost on a last second FG to Boston College.....and FSU was #1 again.

(Now.....how did N Dame losing to BC turn FSU's loss into a win????)


Better yet, look at 2003.

Oklahoma is number one.
They get killed by Kansas St, 35-7.
Oklahoma REMAINS number one after a 28-point loss.

Or what about 2001?

Nebraska is #1.

They get boat raced by Colorado, 62-36.

They "only" drop to #4.


So Alabama was 3 and dropped to 5.



This isn't the first, second, or even THIRD time this has happened.


When you play and lose to a GOOD team, you don't drop far (see FSU-Notre Dame)
When you play and lose to an AVERAGE team, you DO (N Dame dropped to 5).


When #1 Notre Dame lost to USC in 1964, they only fell to #3.
When #2 Oklahoma lost to #1 Nebraska in 1971, they only fell to #3.
When #1 Miami lost to Notre Dame in 1988, they only fell to #4.
When #1 Florida lost to FSU in 1996, they only fell to #4.
When #2 Michigan lost to Ohio State in 2006, they only fell to #3.
When #2 Clemson lost to an UNRANKED Pitt in 2016, they fell to #4.


Michigan had ONE win against a ranked for in 2006 - they beat #2 Notre Dame (who eventually got smashed by LSU in the bowl game).
Yeah, they beat then unranked Wisky (who wound up at 6), but that team also pole vaulted in the final 3 polls.


Lose to a good team? You don't drop very far.

It's been the way of CFB for a long time - through all systems.

Tammy Brando is upset for one reason: Alabama is still in the conversation.

Tammy may “claim” she is an Ole Sis gal, but she is a corndog through and though.

Tammy and her sister Heather “Dim”mich know if Bama gets a rematch with LSU like 2011, Bama will work them like a rented mule.

I can't let Selma have all the long posts in this thread, so here I go.

Here's the big games this weekend and my take on them. I'm going to assume teams win the lesser games, but obviously things can happen there to.

#1: Georgia vs. Auburn
This game will not determine if Alabama gets into the playoff or not by itself, but it is the most realistic chance of creating a win and they're in scenario for Alabama. If Georgia wins, it will not only take away some value from a win over Auburn, but it will preserve Georgia's playoff hopes. If Auburn wins, there's a very good chance they come into the Alabama game as a top 10 team. I'll be rooting against Georgia.

#2: Minnesota vs. Iowa
Minnesota skyrocketing up the playoff standings sent a clear message that they're not going to ignore undefeated Power 5 teams forever. Minnesota has to lose and it might as well be now. Minnesota does not have a good SoS, so a loss here could doom their chances entirely, even if they somehow manage to win out. This will be the easiest game to watch because it's clear who we want to win here.

#3: Oklahoma vs. Baylor
This one is really tricky because a #13 ranked Baylor doesn't seem like much of a threat. They are though and they could make a Minnesota like leap if they win. On the other hand, Oklahoma will continue to creep up if they keep winning. I will probably cheer for Oklahoma here, they can end Baylor's undefeated season and the Pac-12 teams might keep them from moving up too far after a win. Either way the loser is probably knocked out and the winner still has a shot.

On the Sooners vs Baylor - they will likely play twice, so I want a split. But I want them both to have a loss, so I will be pulling for OU in the first game.

B1GTide said:

On the Sooners vs Baylor - they will likely play twice, so I want a split. But I want them both to have a loss, so I will be pulling for OU in the first game.

Click to expand...

I wouldn’t sleep on Baylor or TCU versus Oklahoma. Prior to playing Kansas State, the highest rated defense (total defense) the Sooners had played was West Virginia (mid 70’s at that time). Everyone else was 100+. The highest rated defenses they’ve played (KSU and Iowa State) presented problems. The KSU wasn’t as close as the score indicated (I know you know...we were in that game thread together) and KSU, once they got a big lead, traded points for time off the clock in the fourth quarter.

And last Saturday, Jalen was fortunate not to have at least two (if not three) passes intercepted. Literally two of them hit ISU defenders in the hands and could possibly been the “pick 6” type plays.

Baylor and TCU will be the best defenses they face all year. If they don’t lose to Baylor, I could see TCU pulling the upset.

CB4 said:

Baylor and TCU will be the best defenses they face all year. If they don’t lose to Baylor, I could see TCU pulling the upset.

Click to expand...

Having the Sooners beat Baylor and then lose to TCU would be perfect. :biggrin2:

Cruloc said:

Yes, but...
Defending champion and undefeated and will be conference champion. If they lose, they are absolutely done.

Click to expand...

I'm trying to figure why "defending champion" is even an argument; this isn't last year's team.


However - undefeated is a different ballgame.


We as Tide fans CANNOT rant about 1966 and then say we hope an unbeaten Clemson is left out. Not and be consistent anyway.

The biggest thing we need is for LSU to either:
a) win out OR
b) lose two


The WORST thing for us is for LSU to lose one game - and particularly if they lost to Arkansas.