Re: CFP = #5...
I don't know if I believe this -- "the how did the fair vs. Auburn" thing will only matter so much especially when we're literally talking about the first game of the season vs. the last game of the season.
You're absolutely correct.
Now that Bo Nix has played some, Auburn would actually beat Oregon by MORE points.
I have no doubt we'd beat either of the Pac-12 teams but I think the committee will have a hard time putting an 11-1 Alabama team over a 12-1 conference champ and that conference title game win while we're idle gives them all the reason to do it.
Listen carefully because I'm only going to say this to every single Eeyore that shows up here and has reading comprehension problems (note: no reflection on you my good man):
Conference championships ONLY MATTER if the committee decides the conf champ and Alabama are EQUAL via the eye test.
The rules state this so explicitly it's not even funny. Pay attention to the bold.
Ranking football teams is an art, not a science. Football is popular in some measure because the outcome of a game between reasonably matched teams is so often decided by emotional commitment, momentum, injuries and the “unexpected bounce of the ball.” In any ranking system, perfection or consensus is not possible and the physical impact of the game on student athletes prevents elaborate playoff systems of multiple games.
For purposes of any four team playoff, the process will inevitably need to select the four best teams from among several with legitimate claims to participate.
Four. Best. Teams.
The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to
honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non‐champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non‐champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are
comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
That's the KEY word - "comparable."
Oregon/Utah only gets the vote IF the committee looks at them and us and says, "this is a close call."
Then
and only then do we get.....
Championships won
Strength of schedule
Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
========
We can rule out "head to head" since Alabama hasn't played Oregon/Utah.
That leaves the other three.
Comparative outcomes?
Auburn - that's it
We're in about as good shape as could be expected.
Current Sagarin SOS
Ohio St (34)
LSU (13)
Alabama (54)
Clemson (71)
Oregon (30)
Penn St (23)
Georgia (52)
Georgia 52 vs Alabama 54
I'm sorry but that's NOT enough to rank them ahead of us; the loss to SCAR overturns one that close (seriously, an SOS that close, you're basically saying if Duke won 3 more games).
