1982 Atlanta Braves Retrospective

[selmaborntidefan]

(Note: I've been thinking about this for awhile. I got through two full seasons without a problem, not so much the third one, which I'll pick up at that point...somewhere down the line. But this is a fun season to consider, so it's better if I'm able to preload a lot of the research now rather than later. It won't begin daily until early April, but we can lay out the predicate for the season ahead).

PRELUDE TO A BASEBALL SEASON
There is one slight uptick of optimism among baseball personnel: this promises to be the first year free of labor problems in over a decade, and given what happened last year - and what's ongoing in the NFL right now as they appear perched for their first-ever in-season strike - it came none too soon for fans put off by the infighting. Before previewing the season, let's review how we got here and what the current status is across Major League Baseball (MLB).

THE BIRTH PANGS
Prior to 1966, MLB had a "union in name only", powerless players who could do nothing but beg and hope. Players were bound to their teams for life by a catch-all termed "the reserve clause." Put bluntly, it meant that if Hank Aaron got sick of playing for the Braves and retired and came back five years later, he was still a member of the Braves unless he'd been traded. In an effort to change things, two events in 1966 flipped the momentum. The first was the joint holdout of Dodger star pitchers Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. In the wake of 2 world titles in three years, Koufax got sick and tired of his skill - and low pay - being used against other Dodgers seeking pay increases, so he hired an agent to do his negotiation and got Drysdale to agree to holdout with him. Dodger owner Walter O'Malley actually admired the guts of both men while opposing a third party, but they settled, and the Dodgers won the pennant (although they got creamed in the World Series by Baltimore). The second event was the hiring of labor lawyer Marvin Miller as head of the MLBPA. Every player union lawyer prior to Miller had basically just been there; Miller spent 15 years shaking up the sport, the most obvious the strike that gutted the entire summer last year.

In 1968, citing the joint negotiation of Drysdale and Koufax, the collective bargaining agreement Miller negotiated made it illegal for owners or for players to negotiate in tandem. Miller then led the first strike in history that cancelled the first 13 days of the 1972 season when the owners refused to pay even a tiny amount of money to an agreed upon pension plan. Miller would later say that strike shocked him completely, figuring the current players would not go nuclear over a pension many years hence. But when the owners coughed up $500K - more than they'd promised - the power of the player's union grew. Miller had offered to let an arbitrator settle the whole thing, but neither the players nor the owners were interested.

The owners retaliated with a lockout in 1973, angry over an agreed upon procedure for salary arbitration. The players backed off a bit here, not permitting arbitration until after completion of two consecutive full seasons or three non-consecutive seasons. Arbitration allowed a player seeking a raise to preach his virtues to an impartial third party if he sought one value for his pay increase while the owner sought a lower value. Another lockout occurred in 1976 after the basic agreement expired at the end of 1975, but it was a decision just eight days prior to 1976 that set the stage for all of the acrimony to follow between the players and owners over the next six years. On December 23, 1975, arbitrator Peter Seitz issued a decision that altered the baseball landscape forever.

The argument centered over the following phrase, one still found in the Basic Agreement:
If prior to March 1, the Player and the Club have not agreed upon the terms of the contract, then on or before 10 days after said March 1, the Club shall have the right by written notice to the Player to renew this contract for the period of one year.

In 1975, Dodgers pitcher Andy Messersmith and Expos Pitcher Dave McNally played the season without signing contracts, contracts automatically renewed in accordance with the above phrasing. The union then filed a grievance, arguing that "one year" meant one year, the owners arguing that "one year" meant "one year and another and another into perpetuity." The arbitrator basically told the owners that if that's what they meant, that's what they should have said. Seitz immediately declared both players free agents, and Messersmith signed a 3-year, $1 million contract with the Atlanta Braves, purchased just days earlier by new Atlanta owner Ted Turner. In retaliation, the owners locked the players out for 17 days in 1976 in an attempt to demand concessions and maintain the reserve clause. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn then angered the owners by ordering the camps opened, and eventually the two sides came to an agreement through the end of the 1979 season as to when exactly a player could become a free agent (e.g. after six full years in the majors).

That same year, the umpires went on strike, angry over low pay. It took six weeks and some bad feelings, but the umpires got a new deal in May. One year - almost to the day - later, the players were about to strike when just 15 minutes before deadline, everyone agreed to play out the season with one unsettled issue, free agent compensation, that would be the focal point of the 1981 strike. Given we now know a strike occurred, what exactly happened?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

THE 1981 MLB STRIKE
There can be no denying the first regular season strike in American sports history tore the heart of the country and particularly its baseball fans. From June 11 through August 9, the heart and heat of the summer, there were no major league baseball games played in the USA. And the issue, now settled, was yet another attempt by the owners to pull free agency back as close to the days of the reserve clause era as possible. The issue was "the 16th Man."

The position of the owners was that a team that lost a free agent to another team somehow needed to replace that starter immediately, a fact that made compensatory draft picks or elevation from the minors less than ideal solutions. The owners' proposal was DIRECT compensation from the team that signed to the team that lost the player. Their plan involved every team declaring 15 players "protected", but the team that lost the player could then choose any of the other players (aka the 16th man or worse) from the signing team. Basic economics should explain why this would never be agreed upon by the players: direct compensation meant you were essentially TRADING a player, and the loss of the 16th player would drive the free agent salary of a player southward and weaken his negotiating position. Consequently, it is obvious why the players would never agree to that particular proposal.

The position of the players was, in fact, more nuanced and thought out than was that of the owners. AGREEING in principle with the owners that the team losing the player needed to replace him, the players offered multiple proposals both prior to and during the strike to create a "player pool" of available selections that the team losing the player could choose, determined by the value of the free agent. In other words, the players agreed with the owner regarding the problem, but they disagreed regarding the solution.

To make matters worse, the owners had no need whatsoever to barter in good faith. They purchased - and received - a $50 million strike insurance policy from Lloyd's of London that provided them with their own monetary compensation during last year's strike, money that just happened to run out the day the owners agreed to the very proposal (with a slight addendum) that the players had proposed in February 1981. And then, as if their luck couldn't be any worse, the owners made one of the most colossal mistakes in history with their proposed solution to how to resolve the regular season.

Because the network contracts with NBC and ABC ALLOWED for an extra round of playoffs, owners figured they could cut some of their losses by creating brand new pennant races as well as an additional round of playoffs, the Division Series. Much like minor league baseball, MLB decided to declare the teams in first on the day of the strike as division winners of the first half and start the season from scratch, with an extra five-game playoff to determine the division winner. They had one problem to solve and, unsurprisingly, they blew it. The owners decided if the same team won both halves then the second place team from the season's second half would play the first-half winner. This had an immediately recognized flaw in that it might lead to a team intentionally throwing a game to ensure they - or a favored opponent - made the playoff. It didn't help when managers Whitey Herzog (Cardinals) or Tony LaRussa (White Sox) proposed creative ways to ensure desired outcomes, Herzog saying he would have everyday players pitch and LaRussa saying he would forfeit games. The season eventually went on and the Dodgers and Yankees, both winners of the first-half, played in a so-so World Series last fall, Los Angeles finally prevailing.

But the outcome was still unjust.

Had the entire season been played overall then the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, and Athletics would have squared off in their respective LCS games. Cincinnati had the best record in baseball (66-42), four games better than the Dodgers, but because they finished 1/2 game behind the Dodgers in a first half that saw them play ONE FEWER GAME and 1.5 games behind Houston in the second half where they ALSO PLAYED one fewer game, baseball's best record sat at home last fall watching the other teams play for a shot at the World Series. The defending AL champion Kansas City Royals were 3 games under .500 for the entire year - but because they won the second half, this team with a losing overall record made the playoffs.

The Dodgers were by no means an undeserving champion; they were 5-2 against the Reds, and they did have the second most wins in the NL while playing more games than any team but the Giants. But let's face it, the owners screwed up the game in every way possible last year, and we are still stuck with them for 1982.

Next time, we will look at the biggest free agent signings since the end of the 1981 season.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Despite whispers of collusion from Marvin Miller's office, players ARE on the move both via trade or free agency. Today we'll cover the most notable free agent signings and next post will cover the major trades during the offseason.

Without question, the biggest free agent signing off the offseason was the departure of slugger Reggie Jackson out of New York, all the way across the country, signing a deal with the California Angels of four years for nearly $1 million per season. California edged out the Atlanta Braves in signing the 35-year-old slugger (he turns 36 in May), who let it be known he wanted a short contract for a lot money. Jackson, who has 425 career homers, would like to become the 12th member of the 500 home run club, and the low fence and high altitude in Atlanta's Launching Pad was a definite selling point made by Atlanta owner Ted Turner, as was the fact Reggie, one of the few athletes you know by a singular name, would be on television nearly 150 times this season thanks to the Braves cable deal with WTBS. Four teams - the Braves, Orioles, Yankees, and Angels - expressed interest in Jackson, although New York's interest appeared to be perfunctory since it was known that George Steinbrenner wanted nothing to do paying a sixth season to a lousy defensive outfielder who strikes out a lot and whines even more. At the same time, you cannot deny that the man is a winner, having played for nine first-place teams the past 12 seasons, including five World Series champions. Indeed, one theory is that Steinbrenner's interest was to drive up the price if the Orioles, who have been every bit as good as the Yankees the last 15 years, wanted to bring Reggie back.

Reggie's contract negotiations hit an amusing point when Angels GM Buzzie Bavasi let it be known that since California didn't want to participate in free agency, he'd be glad to offer direct compensation to the Yankees in the form of a trade of a lesser player, an amusing concession given what the recent strike was all about. The most amusing episode in this bizarre saga was probably Jackson's agent asking Turner why so many home runs were hit in Atlanta, and he offered a theory of "molecules", saying, "The higher you hit it, the farther it goes." Turner said the only place Reggie would hit more homers was on the Space Shuttle. At the same, Jackson - understandably - was having to be sold on Atlanta's hospitality, given his experiences with racism in Birmingham just 15 years ago as a minor leaguer. Turner concluded his meeting by telling the media, "Reggie likes me. He's always liked me."

Jackson's departure was made all the more likely by the fact the Yankees grabbed 2/3 of the outfield from last year's best team record-wise, signing Dave Collins as a free agent and trading for Ken Griffey.

The Rangers signed Frank Tanana, who was absolutely terrible last year in Boston after coming over in the infamous "paperwork trade" as the BoSox dumped Fred Lynn. Boston, trying to rekindle a long lost past, signed Mark "The Bird" Fidrych to a free agent contract in the minors, which generated more ink than most major signings or trades. For one brief stellar season as a rookie in 1976, Fidrych remined the world baseball is supposed to be fun. Rookie of the Year and runner up for the Cy Young, he tore knee cartilage in the spring of 1977 and has never recovered. It makes sense that Boston would give him one last chance as he's originally from Massachusetts.

The Angels signed Ed Ott, starting catcher for the Pirates in their World Series year just three years ago, presumably to spell Bob Boone, who they bought from Philly in December.

The Dodgers signed soon to be 38-year-old no bat/all glove shortstop and union rep Mark Belanger as a free agent, which brings up an interesting observation: of the four MLB players who were the public representatives during the strike last year, two have been traded and Belanger has also been let go. Only Steve Rogers, a potential Cy Young candidate, remains with his team.

Finally, the Toronto Blue Jays have decided Danny Ainge really means it when he says he's going to play professional basketball with the Celtics and have released him.

Next time, we'll cover the most meaningful trades, including a couple of blockbusters that may well determine the champion in 1982.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

There are always a few trades that get made every year, and the 1981-82 offseason was no exception. A number of these involve teams dumping potential free agents in the hopes of getting "something" for them, which appears to be on the way to becoming the new norm. Just wait until all the newcomers who live entirely under the new rules (6 years to free agent) are available. Obviously, teams who make the trade think - or hope - that the trade will work out in their favor, whether now or later. Some trades, of course, work out both ways. We'll view the best-known trades, explain why they were made and consider whether the trade is a good, bad, or a push.

THE BLOCKBUSTER
The biggest trade of the off-season, at least in terms of prestige, was made by the ultimate shrewd chess player, Whitey Herzog. Six players changed teams between San Diego and St Louis, but the central players in the trade were the shortstops, Ozzie Smith (San Diego) and Garry Templeton (St Louis). Both players have issues with their clubs, and both are different kinds of specialists playing the same position. Smith was demanding his salary be doubled by owner (and McDonald's founder) Ray Kroc, followed by a trade out of San Diego; Templeton had a public meltdown last August, when he first refused to run out a ground ball, flipped off the crowd at Busch Stadium, and got into an altercation with Herzog in the dugout. Templeton requested the trade while undergoing psychiatric care. In short, both shortstops are unhappy where they are, and both wanted to leave. Templeton is the much better hitter of the two while Ozzie is the much better fielder. Smith, who has completed only four seasons in the majors, cannot become a free agent until after the 1983 season while Templeton can become a free agent after this year. So it made sense from that standpoint for both teams to hopefully soothe ruffled feathers and smooth things over before negotiations begin for the next contract.

Besides, the Cardinals are a legit contender this year. They are gambling that Smith, whose career batting average is nearly 70 points lower than Templeton, will make up for that gap by allowing fewer runs with his wider range at shortstop on artificial turf. The Cards also picked up pitchers Steve Mura and Luis DeLeon for outfielder Sixto Lezcano and Al Olmsted. Smith did not get double his money, but he agreed to let arbitration settle it. Meanwhile, Templeton's agent, a St Louis fan named Richie Bry, declared, "The Cardinals are going to live to regret this. It’s an unfortunate deal, yet it’s right for Garry. They really had no choice."

BIG TRADES
The Big Red Machine, already limping along, is officially dead. Three big trades and a free agency loss have cost the Reds their entire outfield as well as the heir apparent to Pete Rose at third base, Ray Knight. Knight was traded to the Astros for the team's leader in virtually all hitting statistics in the 20-year history of the franchise, Cesar Cedeno, who has been a good player but appears to have never fully recovered from the murder allegation that has dogged him since the 1973 death of his girlfriend in a Dominican Republic hotel room. And why did Knight leave? So Johnny Bench can stop catching and play third base. Well, that and the fact Knight is a free agent after this season. The Reds also traded George Foster, the only big leaguer since Roger Maris to top 50 home runs to the Mets for Alex Trevino, Greg Harris, and closer Jim Kern.

Also gone is Ken Griffey, traded to the Yankees for two minor leaguers. Griffey, who will turn 32 in April, laid out his trade criteria, primarily that he did not wish to continue playing on artificial turf, and hoped to play for a contender that could afford to pay him. Griffey got his wish, and the Yankees now have four starting outfielders with a combined homer total less than Reggie in a season.

A three-team trade that was a bit wild promises to be interesting as well, involving three teams. Cleveland, perhaps busier than any team in baseball during the offseason, sent starting catcher Bo Diaz to the Phillies, who sent Lonnie Smith on to the Cardinals, who in turn sent Larry Sorenson and Silvio Martinez to the Indians. The Philles threw in a no-name towards Cleveland.

Another big trade may be punishment, or it may be a turning of the page. Doug DeCinces has been an outstanding third baseman for the Baltimore Orioles for the last six seasons, is underrated for one reason: defensively, he's simply not Brooks Robinson. DeCinces was heavily involved with the strike negotiations, which has led to speculation his owner tossed him aside vindictively. Earl Weaver is frustrated, planning to bring up minor league phenom Cal Ripken Jr in hopes of having one of the best (maybe the best) defensive infields in baseball. DecCinces is now among a team of all-stars in California, traded for Dan Ford, who is best known for his corked bat suspension last season, though a pretty good player.

GOOD FOR BOTH TEAM TRADES
Sparky Anderson's five-year plan for a world champion in Detroit is in its third season (assuming we count his 2/3 of the 1979 season and last year's strike shortened season as one full year), and he got a defensive upgrade by trading Steve Kemp to the White Sox for Chet Lemon. Sparky's other trade of pitcher Dan Schatzeder to the Giants for outfielder Larry Herndon is an upgrade, simply because Schatzeder was no better than a fifth starter, and he wasn't very good at that, either. Herndon may not be Hank Aaron, but he's okay.

Rick Sutcliffe was not on the team roster last fall, but he was awarded a World Series ring by the Dodgers. That did not soothe over his bitter feelings towards Tommy Lasorda, whom he called a "liar" and demanded a trade. The Dodgers got even with him, sending him to baseball's worst franchise (Cleveland) with throw-in Jack Perconte in exchange for Jorge Orta, Jack Fimple, and Larry White. This now means the Dodgers have both (Vance) Law and Orta on the same team, and can't you just imagine Chris Berman's happiness?

Since Willie Mays Aikens is playing first and near .300 every year Hal McRae designated hitting, there was no way to get the bat of Ken Phelps into the Royals' every day lineup, so the portly batter was shipped off to Montreal for Grant Jackson, who will turn 40 this year and will be one of those long relievers you only see when the team is either blowing out or getting blown out. Speaking of Kansas City, the experiment with former phenom Clint Hurdle is over, and he's gone, sent to the Reds for Scott Brown. Hurdle, the cover story on Sports Illustrated in spring training 1978, is now lucky to make the agate type transaction print of the newspaper less than four years later. It remains to be seen if he can live up to his projected potential - the poor kid is only 24 - or if he will join the list of guys like David Clyde or Clint Hartung.


THE INTERESTING TRADE
The most interesting trade is another swap of shortstops that could get bizarre and should give everyone pause. Days after the Phillies were eliminated from the playoffs by Montreal, Philly manager Dallas Green bolted for a new job as the General Manager of the Chicago Cubs, who are newly enriched thanks to the Tribune Company purchasing the team from the Wrigley family. He then engineered a shortstop swap of 30-year-old Ivan DeJesus from the Cubs in exchange for 36-year-old Larry Bowa of the Phillies. He also invited Philly to throw in a minor leaguer with little chance of making the majors with Philly, Ryne Sandberg. Sandberg is considered a natural shortstop, but he clearly isn't playing that position well enough to simply move him up. And in Philadelphia, Sandberg has zero chance of ascending to the majors ahead of third baseman Mike Schmidt and second baseman (and all-time record holder for consecutive errorless games played at second) Manny Trillo.
But Green has been involved with the Phillies for over two decades in both the front office and managerial job. So why would any team trade a throw-in to a divisional contender whose new GM just happens to be the manager of the team from which he's seeking to obtain players? Bowa, despite the age, is still a better all-around player than DeJesus. Sandberg is likely to start the year at either second or third, and who knows what will happen?

As if this wasn't enough, Green managed to get Philly to send him three players - Keith Moreland, Dickie Noles, and Dan Larson - for a so-so starter in Mike Krukow. Philly just won the World Series the season before last, and the Cubs are perpetually rebuilding, but picking up five players for two is just the kind of deal that might make Chicago a contender soon.

Next time, we'll list the teams by potential and being a breakdown of each of the league's 26 teams, including additions and losses to project the year's results.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

The Contenders:
Baltimore Orioles
Milwaukee Brewers
New York Yankees

On The Rise:
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays

Maybe Up, Maybe Down:
Boston Red Sox

Better Off Staying Home:
Cleveland Indians

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

The Contenders:
California Angels
Kansas City Royals
Oakland Athletics

On The Rise:
Chicago White Sox

Maybe Up, Maybe Down
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

Better Off Staying Home:
Minnesota Twins

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

The Contenders:
Montreal Expos
Philadelphia Phillies
St Louis Cardinals

Maybe Up, Maybe Down:
Chicago Cubs

On The Downhill Slope:
Pittsburgh Pirates

Better Off Staying Home:
New York Mets

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

The Contenders:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros
San Francisco Giants

On The Rise:
Atlanta Braves
San Diego Padres

On The Downhill Slope:
Cincinnati Reds

Next time, we will begin our preview of all 26 teams for the 1982 season, including major acquisitions and losses, direction of the franchise, outlook for the season, and place predictions. Preview will occur via teams in alphabetical order starting with the AL East. First preview is the Baltimore Orioles.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Overall finish last year: 2nd
Major Additions: Dan Ford,
Major Losses: Doug DeCinces, Mark Belanger,
Strength(s): pitching staff, manager, experience
Weakness(es): lost entire left side of infield,
Projected Finish: 1st

Since 1966, the Baltimore Orioles have won more games than any team in baseball and only one, the Oakland Athletics, has won more world championships. During these last 16 seasons, Baltimore has finished first seven times and second six times if you combine their records from each half last year and only once (1967) have they finished with a losing record (and under .500). Along with the Big Red Machine, Baltimore have been the most consistent team across the years since 1970, and although they lost the left side of their infield, it should not be very difficult to replace Mark Belanger's .195 batting average at shortstop, though it may be a tad more difficult to replace the power of Doug DeCinces at third.

The story of Baltimore begins, as always, with an astounding pitching staff anchored by three Cy Young winners, assuming Steve Stone returns from the shoulder tendinitis that ruined his 1981. No pitching staff has ever had three Cy Young winners on it (the 1978 Yankees had two and then Ron Guidry won the award that year, but I'm not referring to staffs with players who won the Cy Young later; Sparky Lyle's departure before the 1979 season prevented this). The Orioles will employ a five-man rotation anchored by future Hall of Famer and 3-time Cy winner Jim Palmer, 1979 winner Mike Flanagan, Stone, Dennis Martinez, and Scott McGregor. A bullpen by committee consisting of Sammy Stewart and the returning Don Stanhouse in long relief and Tippy Martinez and Tim Stoddard in short relief should produce a number of wins.

The man in the spotlight is Belanger's replacement, rookie shortstop Cal Ripken Jr. Great things are expected both in the field and at the plate from the newbie, while the O's have currently not found a replacement for DeCinces at third and may employ multiple utility infielders such as Lenn Sakata or Jim Dwyer. The outfield is solid with the platoon of John "Tonight Let It Be" Lowenstein and Gary Roenicke in left, Al Bumbry in center, and Ken Singleton or Dan Ford in right with the other serving as the DH. And in the event of a close game needing a pinch-hitter, Baltimore has the best in baseball with Terry Crowley.

The talent available all around enables Baltimore to make a trade if necessary to get that one player that will ensure the mission is completed. Earl Weaver is back for his 14th full season as the skipper, and his record and use of statistical analysis in making decisions appears to be currently unrivaled among managers. A number of observers (including Howard Cosell, who wouldn't shut his mouth about it during the 1979 World Series) believe Weaver is the best manager in the game today, although that opinion might be strongly contested by Detroit's Sparky Anderson.

Look for Baltimore to be like they have been every year since 1966, a steady if unspectacular workhorse that has great pitching, excellent defense, and just enough hitting to get them over the hump and back into the playoffs. .

 

[selmaborntidefan]

BOSTON RED SOX
Overall finish last year: 5th
Major Additions: None
Major Losses: Frank Tanana, Joe Rudi, Bill Campbell
Strength(s): hitting (at least in their own park), infield defense
Weakness(es): pitching (both starting and relieving)
Projected Finish: 4th

The most difficult team to project in the AL East is the one built to win in the coziest ballpark in the AL that least resembles the other parks that, voila, are a major problem for full half their games. The team returns three pitchers who have, at different times, had decent reputations - but none recently. Throw in the loss of their "sort of" closer (Bill Campbell), and it's tough to see the Red Sox winning the division. Cleveland and perhaps Toronto ensure they won't finish last, but the talent of Baltimore, Milwaukee, and New York make it even less likely they will finish first. Boston has the look of a team that if they could reach the end of July still in contender status might swing a one-sided deal to bring over a player or two that might mean the difference between first and fourth.

Boston's power hitting can be found in the outfield, where Dwight Evans, the best defensive right fielder in baseball, never gets the same attention for his bat as his glove, but he's a decent hitter who, yes, led the AL in home runs last year (in a four-way tie). Jim Rice will bring the power from left field, though his defense is not that great, and they will be supported by Carl Yastrzemski, the designated hitter in the twilight of his career at age 43 (in August). Yaz will play some occasional first base, but his best years are clearly far in the rearview mirror. The infield defense will be among baseball's best, with Jerry Remy at second and Carney Lansford at third, and although Glenn Hoffman is a definite downgrade from Rick Burleson, his defense will still be tolerable on the grass at Fenway Park. Although Dave Stapleton is penciled in to start at first, a place in the lineup will likely be found for rookie Wade Boggs, who made the team in spring ball and is a natural third baseman. Boston agonizes over the attempt to replace Carlton Fisk - and it ain't happening this year.

The pitching staff won't win any awards for consistency if 1981 is any guide, but Boston has three good though not great starters. Staff ace Dennis Eckersley hopes to return to the starter who won 20 games (1978) and 17 (1979) while compiling a 2.99 ERA both years, but he has become hittable the last two seasons. John Tudor and Mike Torrez round out the established part of their rotation, and the Red Sox will try Bob Ojeda, Chuck Rainey, and Bruce Hurst in an effort to fill the gaps for days four and five. The bullpen by committee is likely to be led by Bob Stanley and supplemented by Mark Clear and Tom Burgmeier.

If the Red Sox still had Fred Lynn, Rick Burleson, and Fisk, they would be a better than even prediction to win the East even with average at best pitching. But Boston is in transition from their powerful teams of 1975-80 into something not quite good enough to challenge for the flag this year. The real shame if you're a Boston fan is that if your team was in the AL West, even this watered down team would be one of the favorites to win it.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Overall finish last year: 6th
Major Additions: Lary Sorenson, Silvio Martinez, Bill Naharodny, Rick Sutcliffe, Jack Perconte
Major Losses: Duane Kuiper, Bo Diaz, Tom Veryzer, Sid Monge, Wayne Garland, Jorge Orta
Strength(s): base stealing, hitting for average, starting pitching
Weakness(es): hitting for power, everything else
Projected Finish: 6th

This will be the 14th season of divisional baseball. The previous 13 have seen Cleveland finish last or next-to-last 10 times, and the Tribe have not finished in baseball's upper one-half since 1968 and haven't contended for a pennant since the Eisenhower administration.

And there doesn't appear to be much hope for improvement this year, either. Cleveland may well finish ahead of Toronto again, but the Blue Jays have plenty of reason to believe they'll be out of the cellar no later than 1984 while Cleveland continues to watch the Cuyahoga River burn along with their hopes of a post-season game.

Cleveland returns six everyday players out of nine (including the DH in the American League) from a sixth-place team that only avoided seventh because of a still maturing expansion team. Two of the three departed players will be replaced by players not even as good as they were. On a sixth-place team. Von Hayes is an improvement over Jorge Orta, but this is not adding Babe Ruth to a .500 lineup. Rick Manning, Miguel Dilone, and Toby Harrah will steal bases about as well as any team in the AL that doesn't have an appointed base stealer (like Rickey Henderson). Their fielding will range from average to below average depending on the day. And Andre Thornton will hit about 25 homers and drive in around 100 runs, if he's healthy.

The most important addition on the mound is former Rookie of the Year Rick Sutcliffe, who couldn't wait to get out of Los Angeles. If he thinks that was bad, he's seen nothing yet. Sutcliffe and Bert Blyleven will combine with Len Barker to give the Indians an adequate starting rotation. If John Denny can get his head screwed on straight, Cleveland may have a formidable rotation if Barker can avoid regaining the weight he lost and everyone stays healthy. A bullpen by committee will be tasked with saving what few wins Cleveland gains, although Dan Spillner is expected to be the first among equals there.

Cleveland has no shot at a miracle, no shot as winning the division, and their fans will be happy if they can just climb out of 6th place in 1982. But with the major obstacles ahead of them, the problem appears to be as much the divisional strength as it is the team's weaknesses.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

DETROIT TIGERS
Overall finish last year: 4th
Major Additions: Chet Lemon, Larry Herndon,
Major Losses: Steve Kemp, Dan Schatzeder, Ron Jackson, Champ Summers
Strength(s): power hitting, starting pitching, manager, batting average, infield defense
Weakness(es): relief pitching
Projected Finish: 5th

When Detroit lured Sparky Anderson out of involuntary retirement in June 1979, their agenda and his demand were of equal value: win the World Series, but it will take me five years to get us into contention. Tom Monaghan (Domino's Pizza) agreed, and Anderson heads into what will only be his second FULL season as Detroit's manager, and here's something to consider: in his 12 seasons as a manager, whether partial or full, Anderson has ONE losing season and that by only two games. Even when he took over a below average Tiger team in 1979, they were six games above .500 the rest of the way. And that track record more than anything suggests Detroit IS, in fact, on the rise, but in the best division in baseball it may take another year or two to see the Tigers lurch towards the front.

Like a few teams already mentioned, Detroit has three solid starting pitchers in Jack Morris, Dan Petry, and Milt Wilcox. And here's where it all gets bizarre: Anderson has long been known as Captain Hook, a manager who will yank a pitcher at the first sign of trouble. But in the past two seasons, Detroit have finished fourth and third in complete games, largely because whoever follows the starter is easier to hit. Detroit had only 22 saves last season, and neither Dave Rozema nor Aurelio Lopez looks like the kind of pitcher who will increase that number much. Rozema won 15 games in 1977, but his failure to strike batters out has caught up with him, and he's stuck in middle relief.

Detroit's offense is not the best in the league, but it's very good. Homers tend to come quite cheaply in Tiger Stadium, which helps their offense but hurts their pitching numbers. The addition of Chet Lemon to the outfield is an upgrade that will likely pay huge dividends if Kirk Gibson can stay healthy. For 1982, Glenn Wilson is penciled into centerfield, but once Gibson comes aboard, expect him to be in right while Lemon moves to center and Wilson, well, probably moves on. Again - I assume.

Detroit has perhaps the best infield defense in baseball now that Mark Belanger has left Baltimore, with the keystone combination of Alan Trammell at short and Lou Whitaker at second. And Detroit also has one of the league's best if unsung catchers in Lance Parrish. In all honesty, all Detroit needs to become championship material is get better players at the infield corners, get a guy who can close games effectively, and get the hustle of Gibson into the everyday lineup. Combined with the demonstrated managerial effectiveness of Anderson, Detroit is closer than they've been in a decade.

If there's one team in the AL East that can surprise with an unexpected pennant, it is Detroit. But they appear at least one year away from a potential run.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Overall finish last year: 1st
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: none
Strength(s): hitting, relief pitching, fielding (except Molitor and Thomas)
Weakness(es): starting pitching
Projected Finish: 2nd

1981 saw the Brewers make the playoffs for the first time, peaking a run that began in 1978. They had the Yankees down, 2-0, in the LDS before the eventual AL champs came back to win, and the question is whether the Brewers have staying power or whether they will begin the descent back to rebuilding in 1982. Their offense suggests contender, and if they can get decent starting pitching, they could well close the deal this year, coincidentally the 25th anniversary of Milwaukee's last championship won by the 1957 Braves.

This is the best hitting everyday lineup in baseball. Milwaukee will hit homers, and they will hit for average, and only California can approach them in these categories. The left side of the infield has perhaps the two best hitters in their lineup, third baseman Paul Molitor and shortstop Robin Yount, and they will be the first two hitters in the lineup most days. Right behind them is Cecil Cooper, he of the .300 batting average nearly every year who never walks and has already won two Gold Gloves at first base. And assuming you can get two of these three out starting the game, you have the powerful Gorman Thomas behind them, the guy who will either strike out or connect for a home run, both categories in which he lead the league in 1979. His defense in center field is suspect, and if Milwaukee could get a better defensive outfielder who could hit .290 or above, Thomas would likely find himself as the DH. Catcher Ted Simmons is perhaps the most underrated backstop in the game, largely because he isn't Johnny Bench, and he hits well. And the everyday players who aren't at the top of the lineup - Charlie Moore, Jim Gantner, and Ben Oglivie - are still very good ballplayers capable of contributing every day.

And Milwaukee has the defending Cy Young winner and best reliever in the American League in Rollie Fingers. The Brew Crew has the offense, and they have the relief pitching, particularly since Fingers has never been a guy limited to the last three batters of the game. The biggest issue that Milwaukee has to solve is how to get to Fingers with the lead in hand.

Mike Caldwell is the staff ace, and he followed up two stellar campaigns in 1978 (22-6, 2.36 ERA, 2nd in the CYA vote) and 1979 (16-6, 3.29) with two years of barely above .500 pitching and a high ERA (nearly 4.00 both years), bailed out by the powerful Milwaukee offense. And he's 33 years old this year, meaning he's unlikely to do better than the last two years. A staff ace slightly above .500 is not a team that's going to win the league. Or maybe Caldwell is replaced as the ace by Pete Vuckovich, who had the best year of his career last year (14-4, 3.55 ERA in the strike shortened season) and has basically been a .500 pitcher like Caldwell prior to 1981. If these two pitchers are at their best, Milwaukee is there at the end; if they aren't, the Brewers may finish as low as sixth in a competitive American League. And these are the best the Brewers have. Behind them are such everyday names of pitchers as Moose Haas (50-49 lifetime), Bob McClure (15-17, a former reliever), and Randy Lerch (42-51). In short, their pitching staff consists of guys of barely above .500 records with unacceptably high career ERAs who will attempt to let the opposition score fewer runs than they surrender. It is a recipe that hardly ever works in MLB, which is why the Orioles (with the better pitching) get the nod over the Brewers. Combine the Milwaukee offense with the Oriole pitching staff, and you'd have the best overall team in baseball.

Milwaukee has to get off to a fast start to win the pennant. Their first six games are against Toronto and Cleveland, and their first 20 games feature 14 against the worst teams in the league and the other six against teams slightly above .500. If the Brewers can reach the 20-game mark with 16 wins, they have a great shot at riding out the competitive race sure to unfold. They'll contend. The question is whether or not they will win.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

NEW YORK YANKEES
Overall finish last year: 3rd
Major Additions: Ken Griffey, Dave Collins, Doyle Alexander, Butch Hobson
Major Losses: Reggie Jackson, Willie McGee, Aurelio Rodriguez, Dennis Werth
Strength(s): pitching
Weakness(es): old team, owner, base stealing
Projected Finish: 3rd

Last year's American League champions, the Yankees last won the World Series four years ago (1978). With the departure of Reggie Jackson to a high-dollar free agency contract, guess how many members of the 25-man roster are still on the team? The correct answer is five, and rumor has it that if the Yankees can swing a trade for the talented Twins shortstop Roy Smalley, Bucky Dent will be the next one out the door. All that remain are the staff ace (Ron Guidry), the closer (Rich Gossage), a defensive whiz at third base who will be 38 years old before the season ends (Graig Nettles), and a temperamental right fielder come off injuries that limited him to 60 games last year and who will turn 39 before season's end (Lou Piniella). That's the story underlying the Yankees that nobody seems to want to mention - the everyday cast was and is getting older by the minute. Think about it: nine members of that team have retired, another (Thurman Munson) is dead, and yet the team couldn't sign 35-year-old Reggie Jackson of all people. And then consider the everyday lineup and you'll see why a number of pundits think the Yankees got just plain lucky there was a strike last year - along with their ages by season's end:

1B - Bob Watson, 36
2B - Willie Randolph, 28
SS - Bucky Dent, 30
3B - Graig Nettles, 38
RF - Ken Griffey, 32
CF - Jerry Mumphrey, 30
LF - Dave Winfield, 31
DH - Lou Piniella, 39
DH2 - Dave Collins, 29
C - Rick Cerone, 28

Consider that a baseball player's decline phase (with rare exceptions) generally starts at 32, and you can understand why it is that folks might think the Yankees, who have finished first in the division five times in the last six years, might be due for a regression. While Winfield is among the best players in baseball, it's not as though their young guys (Cerone, Randolph) are among the best players at their positions anyway.

That and the fact their owner is a certifiable nutjob.

What the Yankees appear to have plenty of and will presumably keep them in contention, injuries notwithstanding, is pitching up and down the line. It starts with "Louisiana Lightning" Ron Guidry, who cashed in his successful years for a big free agent contract (5 years for 900K per season; when he was baseball's best pitcher in 1978, Guidry made $47,000). Whether this will result in the pressure that free agents often find with new riches, particularly in New York, remains to be seen. He is backed up by the seemingly ageless (39 in May) future Hall of Fame candidate Tommy John. Still a rookie - and rushed to the big leagues because owner George Steinbrenner was insanely jealous of the ink Fernando Valenzuela got for his hot start last year - Dave Righetti will be the third starter, but he appears to be more of a bullpen pitcher as this time. The starting crew will be rounded out by Mike Morgan and Doyle Alexander, neither of whom is a superstar but both adequate starters. After losing a record three games in last year's World Series, middle reliever George Frazier (who is a dead ringer for Guidry visually albeit a right hander) and Dave LaRoche will hope to close out teams in the 7th (or sometimes 6th) inning and turn the game over to the lights out finisher, Goose Gossage. Their staff does not quite have the hardware of Baltimore's staff, but if Guidry can pitch anything approaching even his 1979 year, the Yankees can match the Orioles pitch for pitch.

There are three big questions facing the Yankees in 1982:
1) How much will the loss of Reggie Jackson's bat hurt the Yankees?
2) Has the public love affair between owner Steinbrenner and Winfield ended after Winfield's forgettable World Series last year?
3) Can Steinbrenner keep his hands out of the kitchen while the manager manages?

The answer to these questions are "quite a bit", yes, and hell no.

Reggie is one of those transcendent players, particularly in October (hence the nickname "Mr October"), and he just led the AL in homers two years ago (41). A full season this year might net the slugger another 40 bombs in Yankee Stadium, with its easy and short right field line. Ken Griffey is a good player, but his career high home run total is 13. He isn't going to steal enough bases to make up 27 home runs.

Steinbrenner was put out with Winfield's horrid Series performance (1 for 22, 1 RBI, lowest among regulars) and anything less than a championship this year will further fracture the relationship. He spent most of last year needling Reggie, who is now gone, allowing Steinbrenner to focus his ire on one superstar.

And given Steinbrenner has sent notes to managers recommending whom to play and strategy, something the equally insane Ted Turner never does (okay, Ted did manage one game). But he has been fortunate in recent years that his team has continued to win the World Series. But let's review his actions to this point as principal owner of the team.

Steinbrenner bought the Yankees from CBS in 1973 and inherited Ralph Houk as manager. Houk quit on his own, and Steinbrenner decided he wanted Dick Williams, who had resigned from Oakland after winning two straight World Series because (irony alert) he didn't want to deal with a meddling owner. But Williams was still under contract, leading Steinbrenner to pick up Pittsburgh's fired Bill Virdon, who won the NL East in 1972. He fired Virdon after less than two full seasons and replaced him with Billy Martin. Martin won the AL in both 1976 and 1977 (and the World Series the last year) only to get dumped with his team seemingly hopelessly in third place in July 1978. Bob Lemon replaced Martin and won it all - but was already living under the shadow of Steinbrenner's public invitation - less than two weeks after of Martin to return in 1980. When Lemon floundered in 1979, Steinbrenner fired him and brought Martin back early. He then fired Martin a second time after the manager got into a fight with a marshmallow salesman. Dick Howser became the manager and won more games than any team in baseball only to find himself fired because he wouldn't fire a third base coach (Mike Ferraro) whom Steinbrenner singularly blamed for the Yankees' loss in the ALCS to the Royals. (Another irony - Howser now manages the Royals). That brings us to last year.

Steinbrenner hired Gene Michael, who won the first half pennant and had to deal with all matter of injuries and off-the-field issues. But tired of being threatened publicly by Steinbrenner repeatedly, Michael called a press conference and unloaded on the owner, all but daring him to fire the manager. Steinbrenner did, Lemon came back, and the Yankees again made the World Series against the Dodgers.

Lemon is back for 1982.
Everyone including Lemon will be surprised if he's back for 1983.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Overall finish last year: 7th
Major Additions: Bobby Cox, Hosken Powell, Aurelio Rodriguez
Major Losses: Danny Ainge, Paul Mirabella
Strength(s): Dave Stieb on the mound, optimism
Weakness(es): everything else
Projected Finish: 7th

It will be another long season in Toronto (especially outdoors at Exhibition Stadium at season's end), but for the first time in their brief existence, the Blue Jays have hope. The hiring of the well-regarded Bobby Cox, late of Atlanta, and the development of several players at key positions will not bring a pennant this year or next, but it will bring the hope of moving out of last place towards first possibly as soon as 1983.

The most well-known departure is surely the least relevant as Danny Ainge, after hitting .187 as Toronto's starting third baseman last year, has opted for an NBA career with the Boston Celtics. Whomever replaces him will be an upgrade, and Garth Iorg has the inside track unless the Jays pull off a trade before the season begins. Indeed, when Cox looks at his lineup, it's going to look a lot like his Atlanta lineup in 1981 as far as ability. He has one true starting pitcher, the same average at best everyday lineup, and his team can't hit home runs but will surrender a lot of them.

Dave Stieb is Toronto's superstar, but he will only be pitching every fifth day. While he did not place in last year's CYA voting (11-10, 3.19 ERA) and DID strike out in the ninth inning of the All-Star Game when Jim Frey ran out of pinch-hitters, Stieb had a better ERA but far less run support than two high vote getters (Dennis Martinez, Pete Vuckovich) and is capable of preventing long losing streaks from ending Toronto's season early. But behind him, well, are a bunch of question marks. Jim Gott is a rookie picked up in the draft, Luis Leal had a horrid 1981, and Jim Clancy, their original pitcher, is solid but unspectacular.

The Jays' best offensive player is probably one Cox traded over here a few years back, Barry Bonnell, a decent player Atlanta let go because they had too many outfielders as it was. The best defensive player the Jays have is probably shortstop Alfredo Griffin, the former Rookie of the Year whose glove work suggests a future Gold Glove winner. And surrounding them are players who range from good to "someone has to play there" that will be swapped out when Cox and GM Pat Gillick opt to make moves.

1982 will not be the year Toronto stuns the world and finishes first, nor will they be a competitive team that fades in late September to finish third. That could possibly happen in the AL or NL West, but not in baseball's toughest division. But they are unlikely to be the pushover of recent years, either. The Jays lost over 100 games each of their first three years in the league and 95 in the fourth; the only reason they didn't last year is because of the strike. But Toronto will show some improvement and while they will not break the .500 mark, it is not out of the realm of possibility they could lower their loss total below 90, either.

They're not a very good team, but they will be soon if they can just continue development.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

CALIFORNIA ANGELS
Overall finish last year: 4th
Major Additions: Reggie Jackson, Bob Boone, Tim Foli, Doug DeCinces
Major Losses: Dan Ford
Strength(s): hitting, defense
Weakness(es): pitching staff - and it's not too bad
Projected Finish: 1st

This time, the "Singing Cowboy" Gene Autry has to feel very good about his chances at finishing first in the division; he also has to feel he has a decent chance at finally seeing a World Series in Anaheim. Autry opened his checkbook and brought Reggie Jackson back to the West Coast along with one of the game's best third basemen (Doug DeCinces), who just happens to be an Orange County native, and one of the game's best catchers, Bob Boone. Indeed, California is suddenly loaded with players who have quite a bit of post-season experience. The trick, of course, will be getting them there in the first place. It may be an even bigger trick in Manager Gene Mauch's first full season at the helm, given his reputation for choking. Mauch, for those who may not remember, was the infamous manager of the 1964 Phillies that blew a 6.5 game lead in the final 12 games. Less remembered is the implosion of Mauch's 1977 Minnesota Twins, who were one game out with 36 games left as they went 12-23 (one game was not played) and finished fourth, a whopping 17.5 games out. He's a good manager, but he has an unremarkable history and has never finished first. Perhaps 1982 will be the year.

Mauch and the Angels enter the season with enormous firepower at the bat. It starts with first baseman Rod Carew, he of the seven batting titles and 2505 base hits. He will be backed with support from Brian Downing, the catcher turned leftfielder and 1979 batting champion/home run threat/superstar defensive outfielder Fred Lynn. And even just one of those guys reaches, 400+ home run bomber Reggie Jackson comes to the plate with speed on base. And just in case you think, "Well, Reggie strikes out a lot," you have excellent fielder and 25 home run threat Doug DeCinces protecting Reggie and batting from the opposite side of the plate, precluding the usual tactics employed with endless relief pitchers. And just in case you get through these guys, you have Bobby Grich and RBI machine Don Baylor in the lineup as well. Based on their current trends, we're talking about two already surefire Hall of Famers (Carew and Reggie), two future HOFers if they keep current trends (Lynn, DeCinces), and two others who could be if they can continue to add to their numbers for a long time (Grich, Baylor). Six potential Hall of Famers in the lineup sounds a lot like the old Yankees dynasties. Their weakness, assuming it qualifies, is that while their hitting can match Milwaukee batter for batter, their pitching will not match Baltimore. But that won't matter so much as far as winning the Western division.

The Angels' mound staff features five starters that while none are superstars, all are very capable of pitching well enough and deep enough into games to emerge victorious. And if California is still in the hunt come August, who knows what kind of money Autry might be willing to spend. The best pitcher on staff is probably Ken Forsch, who went 11-7 last year with a 2.88 ERA. With California's additions at bat, that same ERA will likely net Forsch 17-19 wins. Geoff Zahn is considered the ace starter, and though he doesn't strike enough batters to remain viable for many years, he has had his best years in Minnesota with Mauch as his manager. Mike Witt, Steve Renko, and Bruce Kison round out a so-so pitching staff, but here Mauch has an advantage: his three main relievers (Andy Hassler, Don Aase, Doug Corbett) are not a significant downgrade, so Mauch will have the luxury of making a move or not with fewer worries.

Look for the Angels to win the West. They are clearly the best team in their division on all sides of the equation. Whether that will mean anything remains to be seen, but California is the West division's best chance at a world champion in 1982.

 

[Bazza]

Pretty amazing details, Bill. As a long time die hard Braves fan, but quit after the cancelled post-season....I look forward to reading these when time allows.

The old TBS Superstation was the best!

Thank you!

 

[selmaborntidefan]

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Overall finish last year: 3rd
Major Additions: Steve Kemp, Tom Paciorek, Vance Law
Major Losses: Chet Lemon, Todd Cruz, Ross Baumgarten, Harry Caray, Ed Farmer
Strength(s): hitting, starting pitching, outfield depth
Weakness(es): bullpen
Projected Finish: 3rd

Chicago's rebuilding plan enters its 17th season in 1982, and the one positive is that they do appear headed in the right direction. Finally. This year's White Sox are not stellar at anything, but they are solid at virtually everything, and if they can figure out their bullpen situation, they could well challenge California for the division title.

The biggest loss might not be much of a loss at all. Harry Caray, the bloviating announcer with the drinking problem who is twice the size and half as talented as his son, Skip, who calls Braves games, moved across town after 11 years as a bad luck charm for the Sox and has a 79% disapproval rating from Cubs fans realizing he's replacing Jack Brickhouse as their lead announcer. Don Drysdale replaces Harry on lead, and his sidekick, Jimmy Piersall, was shown the door as well thanks to his repeated on-air criticisms of the team's ownership. Ken "Hawk" Harrelson switches colors as he comes over from the Red Sox booth to provide color to Drysdale.

The biggest loss for the Sox might be the easiest to overcome simply because Chicago has six quality outfielders anyway. Chet Lemon's departure had more to do with Detroit refusing to pay Steve Kemp a long-term $1 million contract that he wanted than anything else. With outfielders to spare, the Sox figured they could pay Kemp the $600K he was making in Detroit and if he's good and leaves, they'll get a decent player via compensation. But when you already have base stealer extraordinaire' Ron LeFlore, the newly acquired Tom Paciorek, former Philly slugger Greg Luzinski, Harold Baines, and Rudy Law as well as Kemp, you have enough talent to spare at the outfield positions. If the Sox are contenders in August, expect a deal that might land them a better infielder. Mike Squires, Bill Almon, Tony Bernazard, and Jim Morrison (not the one who led the Doors) are a solid cast that will provide steady constancy in the face of turmoil And the mound is where the turmoil may or may not arise.

Management traded number five starter Ross Baumgarten, but it was a trade made possible by the late season acquisition of 1969 Mets alum and two-time 20-game winner Jerry Koosman at the waiver deadline last year and the continuing improvement in newcomer LaMarr Hoyt. Tony LaRussa saw a chance to pick up another infielder in Vance Law, and Baumgartner was gone. Hard luck Britt Burns returns and his sub-3.00 ERA but not as stellar record, and the combined talents of Rich Dotson and Steve Trout make the White Sox legitimate contenders if they can resolve their one glaring issue, the bullpen. Hoyt and Ed Farmer combined for 20 saves in a bullpen by committee last year, but Hoyt pitches well enough to be a starter (they think) and Farmer is now plying his trade in Philly.

The White Sox will win games in 1982. Whether they have enough to contend with the Angels, Royals, and Athletics or at least stay close enough to make a trade for a key player worthwhile will be the question that is answered only after half a season is played. They may not be there yet, but they are getting there.

They are, in fact, there enough that LaRussa has told the fans to plan on buying LCS tickets in October, declaring, "We will win the West."

 

[selmaborntidefan]

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Overall finish last year: 4th
Major Additions: Bud Black, Jerry Martin, Grant Jackson, Dave Frost, Greg Pryor
Major Losses: Manny Castillo, Ken Brett, Clint Hurdle, Rich Gale, Ken Phelps
Strength(s): offense, speed, closer
Weakness(es): starting pitching
Projected Finish: 2nd

Subtract a long bomb hitter and the Royals are basically the Milwaukee Brewers with a better bullpen and worse defense. And playing on the Royals Stadium turf means their high percentage hitting and low strikeout total will be their greatest asset as they attempt to regain the American League championship they held two years ago only to lose last year after getting swept out of the playoffs. But the first thing to go right for the Royals is they will have Dick Howser, one of the most highly regarded minds in the sport at any level, leading them for a full season. It's not often a team fires a manager less than one year after winning the World Series, but when Jim Frey failed to adjust his team to the scouting reports mimicking Philadelphia's plan to beat them in the 1980 World Series, he was out and Howser, who ironically lost his job because Frey beat him in the 1980 payoffs, came aboard.

KC's strength starts at the bat and most specifically the bat of third baseman George Brett. Brett hit .314 last year, a superb accomplishment were Brett not the guy who challenged .400 until the waning weeks of the previous season (he won the batting title with a .390). He's a smart player, good defense, gets on base, and he's a team leader who turns 29 in May. He is in the prime of his career and one of the best players in the game. The Royals' offense, however, has four other players in the everyday lineup capable of hitting .300 and getting on base: Willie Wilson, Hal McRae, and Frank White. These guys assure the Royals have plenty of high average hitting fast baserunners at the top of the lineup, and Wilson is the best base stealer in baseball not named Rickey Henderson. Hits and runs will keep Kansas City in contention all year, and if the team can get enough 7-inning performances out of their starters to bring in lights out Dan Quisenberry, KC may return to the top of the American League. The problem, however, will be getting there.

There's no kind way to say it: the Royals have an old pitching staff. They have pitchers on their staff who were once very good, but who are, well, OLD. The staff ace is 34-year-old Larry Gura, who has had recent years with records of 16-4 and 18-10. But he is a year older and doesn't strike out many batters, which is walking a fine line. Next in the rotation is the former phenom Vida Blue, a six-time All-Star, a three-time World Series winner, and one of the few guys to win the MVP and Cy Young in the same season (1971). But Vida is 32 years old and though he's the only pitcher to win the All-Star Game in both leagues, he, too, has regressed from his early career high strikeout totals to allowing balls to be put into play, always a disaster. Third in the rotation is 35-year-old Paul Splittorff, whose pitching has gotten worse each year since 1979 and only KC's high run total has made his won/loss records respectable. Fourth in line is Dennis Leonard, who won 20 or more games three times in four years and had a respectable 13-11 record last year with a 2.99 ERA. As the youngster on the staff, he will be expected to make it deeper into games than the others.

All together, KC is a pretty good team. But it's difficult to fathom how a team with three starters whose best days are clearly behind them (with nothing come up from the minors soon) will be able to finesse the season enough to finish first.

How close is it between KC and California? Well, if Reggie Jackson had signed with someone else, KC would still be the favorite. They are likely to top 88 wins, which may be enough to win the division. KC's pitching is better than California's, but the Angels' offense is enough to overcome it.

Or so it appears at the moment.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

MINNESOTA TWINS
Overall finish last year: 7th
Major Additions: Greg Wells, Bobby Castillo
Major Losses: Glenn Adams, Danny Goodwin, Hosken Powell
Strength(s): new ballpark will bring out more fans than otherwise
Weakness(es): everything top to bottom
Projected Finish: 7th

The Minnesota Twins have exactly one chance to win the AL West this year: the destruction via annihilation of everything in America except the Twin Cities and the division title trophy. They're moving out of the collapsing outdoor Metropolitan Stadium into the warm confines of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, which is about the only positive news they'll experience in 1982. The question concerns whether they'll be good a few years up the line because the Twins are a very young team, so young they will be starting rookies at catcher, first bae, third base, and centerfield plus a second-year player (Tom Brunansky) in right field. And because the Twins are rebuilding, rumor has it that 1979 All-Star Game starting shortstop Roy Smalley is on the trading block, which might mean yet another rookie. In all honesty, the Twins' every day starting lineup is no better than many teams in Triple-A (and might lose to a few). And because Twins owner Calvin Griffith is a cheapskate (to say nothing of being a racist), good luck getting quality players that you don't develop in your own minor leagues.

Just five years ago, the Twins were in the heat of the pennant race as late as August 23. But they've let their best every day players from that team (Rod Carew, Larry Hisle, and the late Lyman Bostock) leave for virtually nothing as well as their pitchers (Bert Blyleven, Jerry Koosman). In its place are a bunch of minor leaguers facing major league pitching for the first time.

There are two bright spots for the Twins in their everyday lineup in the infield, rookies Kent Hrbek (first base) and Gary Gaetti. Hrbek is a burly first baseman with some power who might be helped by the short right field porch in the new stadium. Gaetti struck out six times in 26 at bats in late September last year, but he also smashed two homers. As balls are likely to fly out of the small stadium with regularity, his numbers (and those of Hrbek and Brunansky) will receive a jolt - but that jolt will be returned with interest when Minnesota's mound staff takes the hill because they have pretty much nobody who has proven themselves as a major league pitcher.

How bad - or maybe I should say INEXPERIENCED - is their pitching staff? The Twins will have 11 pitchers on the roster: six of those pitchers were never on a major league roster prior to 1980 (just two years ago). Of the five others who were, Bobby Castillo was a Dodger middle reliever whose record reflects the value of his team more than him, Fernando Arroyo lost 18 games as the replacement for Mark Fidrych in Detroit in 1977 and followed that up with only 8 appearances on the mound in 1978-79, Darrell Jackson joined the staff in 1978 and has two years as a starter and two as a reliever with unremarkable results, Pete Redfern has pitched as both a starter and reliever since 1976 and only once has his ERA been below 4.07, and Roger Erickson had a stellar rookie campaign in 1978 (14-13, 3.96 ERA, 14 CGs) on a mediocre team and has done nothing since.

In short, with 11 pitchers on staff the Twins have exactly ONE player who had ONE really good pitching year FOUR YEARS AGO - and nothing else. It is not a recipe for success. Rookies in the starting lineup, inexperience on the mound. The best hope for the Twins is the future, so don't be surprised if Smalley and Butch Wynegar are dealt for numerous players (most notably pitchers) in hopes of working something out long-term.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Overall finish last year: 1st
Major Additions: Joe Rudi, Dan Meyer, Danny Goodwin, Davey Lopes
Major Losses: Mike Warren, Rich Bordi, Craig Minetto
Strength(s): base stealing (speed), Tony Armas' power
Weakness(es): pitching staff is walking a tightrope
Projected Finish: 5th

The timer is ticking, and the only question is whether it detonates this year or next. Oakland is living on borrowed time, and only a contradiction of past history will save them from the inevitable. And if their pitching implodes, which is what the whispering around the league suggests, it will claim casualties both in careers and the front office.

Billy Martin is a good manager with a shelf-life of around 400 or so games. Once he reaches that point, his dismissal, whether through poor managerial decisions or his tendency to find trouble away from the diamond thanks to his temper mixed with alcohol, is inevitable. Martin's past history indicates a momentum rewarded first year, a second year filled with drama and trauma, and a third year where he's fired if he makes it that far. In his first year as a manager with Minnesota in 1969, Martin won the division and was fired days after getting swept in the LCS by Baltimore for a series of off-the-field incidents and earning the wrath of owner Calvin Griffith for not starting Jim Kaat in a do-or-die game. After sitting out the 1970 season, Martin took over 79-83 Detroit and finished 2nd his first year (91 wins), won the division on a technicality his 2nd (when Detroit played more games than Boston due to a strike and won by 0.5 games), and was fired his 3rd for ordering his pitchers to throw spitballs. The following year, he took over 105-loss Texas and finished 2nd (with 84 wins) until his volatile temper got him fired in 1975 for several off-the-field issues. The Yankees picked him up and won two straight pennants and the 1977 World Series only to fire Martin while 14 games down in 1978. His careers in these jobs spanned 162, 452, 278, and 471 games to which Martin added more in a pointless 1979. Given this history, Oakland has peaked and it's only a matter of time; Martin will reach his 400-game shelf-life in late August this year.

Oakland won the Western division last year by starting 11-0, holding onto first place when the strike began (by only 1.5 games), and beating second-half champion Kansas City in the division series. And Oakland did lose the second half by a mere game to the Royals, which given the lack of incentive was not bad. But in three games against the Yankees, Oakland only led for three batters in game two and failed to cross the plate once in the last 14 innings despite leading the league in home runs in the worst hitter's park in the league. All signs are pointing to a team entering a downward spiral.

The biggest problem facing the Athletics and the biggest whisper around dugouts is that Martin has destroyed the arms of his young pitchers through overuse. Oakland has thrown 154 complete games - that's an entire season - across the last two seasons combined. The next closest team (Detroit) has slightly more than half that total (73). The popular current theory is that the only reason Oakland didn't see their arms go down last year is because the strike gave their starters a full two months off after being overused in the season's first half.

Oakland surely feels cheated because in the last two seasons under Martin's guidance the Athletics have had the runner-up for the Cy Young both years and probably should have won it twice. Mike Norris was 22-9 with a much better ERA and exceeded winner Steve Stone is every category except starts, where had had four fewer but still logged 34 additional innings. But Stone won 25 games, and it was Billy Martin versus Earl Weaver with the sportswriters so even though Norris had as many first-place votes as Stone, it was the lower votes that cost him. Steve McCatty was the best pitcher in baseball last year - yes, better than Fernando Valenzuela, who got all the ink and won the NL Cy Young with one less win. (Valenzuela's stats were achieved his first time facing teams who had never seen him; he regressed substantially as the year went on whereas McCatty was consistent all year). McCatty was undone by Rollie Fingers, a good pitcher who had no business winning the CYA much less the MVP.

McCatty and Norris return to head up a four-man rotation rounded out by Rick Langford (12-10, 2.99), who led the league in complete games just four years removed from leading all of baseball in losses (19) and Matt Keough (10-6, 3.40) with spot starter Brian Kingman, who led the league in losses (20) in 1980. At any one time, they have five to six other pitchers in the bullpen, most of them average at best. They have nothing resembling a closer or even a long distance reliever. If one or two arms on the starters go, Oakland could be in big trouble.

Oakland, as noted above, led the league in home runs last year as well as strikeouts, resulting in a low average, but they have one ace in the hole, superstar base stealer and all-around hot dog Rickey Henderson, entering his third season at only 23 years old. Henderson can unquestionably steal 100 bases in a season, he already did it (1980), although his pace was a little below that last year. Henderson is the highest batting average hitter in the Oakland lineup (.319), and he's capable of getting on base, stealing second, and scoring on a hit for a quick run. (He's also capable of stealing third better than any player in the game - and coming home on any kind of contact). Oakland also has last year's leading home run slugger Tony Armas back. Unfortunately, that's about it as far as their offense is concerned, though the addition of another base stealer, Davey Lopes, might open some National League-style offense.

Oakland's defense is reasonably good with Dwayne Murphy, winner of two Gold Gloves thus far, in center between Armas and Henderson. Mike Heath won't win any awards for his hitting, but he can manage a pitching staff with the best of them, and he's tough to boot if things get out of hand. Fred Stanley and Wayne Gross will provide adequate infield defense along with Lopes, and Dan Meyer is about as good defensively as Jim Spencer - and five years younger - at first.

Oakland will win some games, and they benefit from the fact they're in the West, where winning the division is easier. But it will only take a bit of bad luck or Billy volatility to spell the end of their competitiveness, and the clock suggests it coming soon.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

SEATTLE MARINERS
Overall finish last year: 6th
Major Additions: Todd Cruz, Rich Bordi, Gaylord Perry, Thad Bosley
Major Losses: Bud Black, Rick Auerbach, Dan Meyer, Tom Paciorek, Jeff Burroughs, Mike Parrott
Strength(s): relief pitching, Bruce Bochte
Weakness(es): pretty much everything else
Projected Finish: 6th

The jury is out on whether Seattle can show improvement in 1982. Keep in mind that the franchise CAN continue to move forward but wind up with a worse record, depending on what other teams in the division do. Rene Lachemann begins his first full year at the helm, and he did a reasonably good job at showing improvement after the disastrous tenure of Maury Wills as manager. Then again, who wouldn't have, and therein lies the problem in assessing Seattle. Wills was so terrible as a manager - perhaps the worst in the history of Major League Baseball - that Lachemann could be 100 times better than Wills and still be an incompetent disaster. Lachemann isn't likely to declare an already traded player his projected starting outfielder, delay a game for ten minutes deciding on a pinch-hitter, pull a starting pitcher with no reliever warming up in the bullpen, fly out in the middle of a spring training game, or have the grounds crew redraw the batter's box out of acceptable parameters to stifle a hot opposing hitter - all things Wills did by the way - but even subtracting the bizarre, the jury is out on what Lachemann can accomplish, and a simple look at who the Mariners lost in comparison with their gains might be enough to suggest that only the more lousy crew in Minnesota is insurance Seattle cannot finish last.

The Mariners did decide to get a little attention, though, signing 41-year-old former Cy Young winner Gaylord Perry, whose third win this year (if he gets it) will be #300 for his career. Only 14 pitchers have reached that mark - none since 1963 - and you would have thought the Atlanta Braves might could have used the attendance boost and good press of having a 300th win there. But unimpressed by his 8-9, 3.94 ERA season, the Braves appear to think they have a contender this year, so Seattle figures this will garner media coverage, and they're correct. (For the record, Perry was at a career total of four wins when Early Wynn became the last 300 game winner).

That's not to say Seattle doesn't have some bright spots. Floyd Bannister has a lot of potential as a starter while Bill Caudill and Larry Andersen shore up one of baseball's better bullpens. But a bullpen only matters if you get late into the game with a lead, and the issue with Seattle isn't so much the offense as it is the pitching staff behind Bannister (and Perry if he's doing well) is a bunch of has-beens and names out of the phone book.

Seattle's brightest spots for both 1982 and the future are the infield defense built around Julio Cruz and Todd Cruz, two excellent fielders on the turf of the Kingdome. Second-year outfielder Dave Henderson brings a powerful bat to the lineup, but Seattle will struggle to score runs away from the friendly confines of the home ballpark.

It could go either way. Seattle is highly unlikely to win the division, but challenging early with a respectable third-place finish would go a long way towards securing the future. And such a rise is possible in the AL West.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

TEXAS RANGERS
Overall finish last year: 2nd
Major Additions: Ramon Aviles, Doug Flynn, Frank Tanana, Lamar Johnson
Major Losses: Dave Rajisch, Jim Kern
Strength(s): consistent lineup, adequate pitching staff
Weakness(es): bullpen unknown, lack of depth
Projected Finish:3rd

The big question hanging over the Texas Rangers that the season will answer is whether or not they can follow up their 1981 success with a season in contention and then grab a free agent in hopes of winning the division in 1983 or whether they will sink back to their normal level of average to mediocre. Either direction is just as likely, their sole hope the fact they're in the softer West division than the monster known as the AL East.

The 1981 Rangers stayed below the radar all year long with minimal attention, mostly because they failed to make the playoffs, finishing 1.5 games behind Oakland in the first half and 4.5 behind the
Royals in the 2nd. Their hitting and their pitching both were near the top of the league, and they return most of last year's team. On the mound they have added Frank Tanana, about whom there are many questions, the most important being whether Tanana reverts to the form that made him the AL leader in ERA five seasons ago or the guy who went 4-10 in Boston last year. Their five-man starting staff of Tanana, Charlie Hough, Rick Honeycutt, Doc Medich, and Danny Darwin is solid though unspectacular. The loss of Jim Kern, the AL's best reliever in 1979, can hopefully be absorbed by Steve Comer, who was the ace of that staff but has been pushed back to the bullpen due to shoulder injuries. The Rangers have the most balanced staff in the AL West if they can get enough offense to piece together a win. The experience and defense of catcher Jim Sundberg will play a key role in the eventual outcome for Texas this year.

Texas has a solid offense with the infield combination of Pat Putnam, Bump Wills, and Buddy Bell contributing; we'll ignore the putrid offense of defensive first-class shortstop Mario Mendoza, who cannot seem to keep his batting average above the line named after him. Mickey Rivers, Billy Sample, and Johnny Grubb are, like their pitching teammates, solid everyday players that nobody will confuse with Willie Mays. Don Zimmer returns after a successful first season in the dugout and hopes to take the next step, if not this year then in 1983.

Texas should have a good but not great team. The only question is whether 1982 will show progress or regress.

Next time we'll begin our look at the National League, starting with the Cubs in the NL East.