April 19, 1995
NL WEST: POTENTIAL FOR THE BEST RACE IN THE LEAGUE
The NL East is a two-team race. Everyone that knows anything about baseball knows that. The NL Central potentially has a four-team chase depending on extraneous factors and who comes through. And then there's the NL West, which has the potential to be a three- or even four-team race depending on how it shakes out. The Dodgers were leading at the strike last year, and the Giants won 103 games the year before only to miss the playoffs due to the Braves winning 104 and there being no wildcard. The Braves are gone. Unfortunately for the Giants, so is their starting pitching.
The Giants do have what might be the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball at the plate with Barry Bonds and Matt Williams, who was on a pace to break Roger Maris's single-season HR record last year when the strike hit. They also have one of the best closers in the game in Rod Beck. Problem? They have almost nobody else in the lineup that opposing pitchers will have to fear - and closers only get the ball if the team has the lead in the 8th or 9th inning. And with this Giants pitching staff that may be a problem. Mark Leiter, Terry Mulholland, and Mark Portugal anchor a staff that, well, isn't very good to put it mildly - and all 3 of them are 32 years old and beginning the decline phase of their pitching careers.Trevor Wilson is likely to be the fourth starter. The most likely scenario for the Giants is they begin unloading players after the All-Star Game who are potential free agents and build for the future. It must be acknowledged that most of their success in 1993 was due to a high number of players - including their two starters, John Burkett and Bill Swift - having career years. (Barry Bonds is the obvious exception to this rule on the Giants). The Giants may contend, but they'll need another move or two. Kirt Manwaring and Robby Thompson bring valuable experience, and Dusty Baker is demonstrating he's a competent manager, but the Giants will need a few breaks to go their way.
So, too, will the San Diego Padres, who are the odd team out this year. The Padres unloaded high-priced free agents in their 1993 salary purge (Fred McGriff to Atlanta being the most famous), and they have made a trade they think will help build them for the future, acquiring Ken Caminiti, Andujar Cedeno, Jody Reed, and Steve Finley. There's talent on the mound with the "Andy Twins" - Ashby and Benes - and there's also an old-timer making another run, Fernando Valenzuela, whose 1981 days of being a marquee attraction ended, well, around the All-Star break of 1981. They also have Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, and San Diego has a much better chance of reaching their closer with a lead than do the Giants. The Padres are like the Giants but with a better chance to make a run at the flag.
And then there's the real wild card in the deck, the Colorado Rockies. Boosted by the sales of 50,000 season ticket holders, the Rockies are making sure amateur night in Denver gets serious REAL quickly. And the new park has the potential for mischief as well. If the Rockies can keep games close - and they have some powerful offensive bats with the addition of Larry Walker to those of Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette, and Vinny Castilla - they will have a home field advantage like no team since the 1987 Minnesota Twins, and that team won it all. The Rockies are trying to become Atlanta West, and they've done it by adding former Braves players who are no longer of any service to Atlanta. Two of their starting pitchers - Marvin Freeman and Armando Reynoso - were members of the 1991 Braves team that won the pennant, and they grabbed an unprotected Vinny Castilla in the expansion draft to the chagrin of the Braves who wanted to keep him but wanted to keep Chipper Jones even more. The Rockies even have solid defense up the middle with Walt Weiss at short, and Joe Girardi handles a pitching staff as well as any catcher in the league. The gaping flaw for the Colorado is the lack of a lights out closer. They will go with the bullpen by committee and hope for the best even though it never works. But if the Rockies are in the hunt at the trade deadline, look for them to make a deal for an available closer to cash in on the pennant.
And speaking of cash, we are left with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have the most and go off as the clear favorite even though it's not for certain that they will be able to cash in this year in this division. The Dodgers have bid farewell to their pitcher of the 80s, Orel Hershiser, and they also jettisoned Kevin Gross. The Dodgers are in the midst of a youth movement to mimic what Montreal attempted last year (it is just coincidence that Manager Tom Lasorda used to be at the Dodger minor league facility in uh Montreal). The Dodgers continue to win the annual Dodger of the Year, I'm sorry, Rookie of the Year award as they have the last three seasons with Eric Karros, Mike Piazza, and Raoul Mondesi. This year's candidate is Japanese import Hideo Nomo, who reminds fans of Valenzuela and not merely because both were pitchers from other nations. Valenzuela's noticeable tic was that he rolled his eyes upward during delivery of a pitch. Nomo takes a very long windup before releasing the pitch, an advantage at surprising the hitter and disrupting his timing but a major disadvantage when he has someone on first base with speed. LA will go with a "United Nations" staff of knuckleballer Tom Candiotti (US), Ramon Martinez and Pedro Astascio (Dominican Republic), Nomo (Japan), Ismael Valdez (Mexico), and potentially newcomer Chan Ho Park (South Korea).
The Dodgers will have the best pitching staff and some good offense, the Rockies will have an okay pitching staff and a blistering offense. These two are likely to battle it out, but you have to give LA the advantage over a young team in the pennant race, particularly with Tom Lasorda still calling the shots.
PREDICTED FINISH
1) Los Angeles
2) Colorado
3) San Diego
4) San Francisco
Tomorrow: AL East
NL WEST: POTENTIAL FOR THE BEST RACE IN THE LEAGUE
The NL East is a two-team race. Everyone that knows anything about baseball knows that. The NL Central potentially has a four-team chase depending on extraneous factors and who comes through. And then there's the NL West, which has the potential to be a three- or even four-team race depending on how it shakes out. The Dodgers were leading at the strike last year, and the Giants won 103 games the year before only to miss the playoffs due to the Braves winning 104 and there being no wildcard. The Braves are gone. Unfortunately for the Giants, so is their starting pitching.
The Giants do have what might be the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball at the plate with Barry Bonds and Matt Williams, who was on a pace to break Roger Maris's single-season HR record last year when the strike hit. They also have one of the best closers in the game in Rod Beck. Problem? They have almost nobody else in the lineup that opposing pitchers will have to fear - and closers only get the ball if the team has the lead in the 8th or 9th inning. And with this Giants pitching staff that may be a problem. Mark Leiter, Terry Mulholland, and Mark Portugal anchor a staff that, well, isn't very good to put it mildly - and all 3 of them are 32 years old and beginning the decline phase of their pitching careers.Trevor Wilson is likely to be the fourth starter. The most likely scenario for the Giants is they begin unloading players after the All-Star Game who are potential free agents and build for the future. It must be acknowledged that most of their success in 1993 was due to a high number of players - including their two starters, John Burkett and Bill Swift - having career years. (Barry Bonds is the obvious exception to this rule on the Giants). The Giants may contend, but they'll need another move or two. Kirt Manwaring and Robby Thompson bring valuable experience, and Dusty Baker is demonstrating he's a competent manager, but the Giants will need a few breaks to go their way.
So, too, will the San Diego Padres, who are the odd team out this year. The Padres unloaded high-priced free agents in their 1993 salary purge (Fred McGriff to Atlanta being the most famous), and they have made a trade they think will help build them for the future, acquiring Ken Caminiti, Andujar Cedeno, Jody Reed, and Steve Finley. There's talent on the mound with the "Andy Twins" - Ashby and Benes - and there's also an old-timer making another run, Fernando Valenzuela, whose 1981 days of being a marquee attraction ended, well, around the All-Star break of 1981. They also have Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, and San Diego has a much better chance of reaching their closer with a lead than do the Giants. The Padres are like the Giants but with a better chance to make a run at the flag.
And then there's the real wild card in the deck, the Colorado Rockies. Boosted by the sales of 50,000 season ticket holders, the Rockies are making sure amateur night in Denver gets serious REAL quickly. And the new park has the potential for mischief as well. If the Rockies can keep games close - and they have some powerful offensive bats with the addition of Larry Walker to those of Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette, and Vinny Castilla - they will have a home field advantage like no team since the 1987 Minnesota Twins, and that team won it all. The Rockies are trying to become Atlanta West, and they've done it by adding former Braves players who are no longer of any service to Atlanta. Two of their starting pitchers - Marvin Freeman and Armando Reynoso - were members of the 1991 Braves team that won the pennant, and they grabbed an unprotected Vinny Castilla in the expansion draft to the chagrin of the Braves who wanted to keep him but wanted to keep Chipper Jones even more. The Rockies even have solid defense up the middle with Walt Weiss at short, and Joe Girardi handles a pitching staff as well as any catcher in the league. The gaping flaw for the Colorado is the lack of a lights out closer. They will go with the bullpen by committee and hope for the best even though it never works. But if the Rockies are in the hunt at the trade deadline, look for them to make a deal for an available closer to cash in on the pennant.
And speaking of cash, we are left with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have the most and go off as the clear favorite even though it's not for certain that they will be able to cash in this year in this division. The Dodgers have bid farewell to their pitcher of the 80s, Orel Hershiser, and they also jettisoned Kevin Gross. The Dodgers are in the midst of a youth movement to mimic what Montreal attempted last year (it is just coincidence that Manager Tom Lasorda used to be at the Dodger minor league facility in uh Montreal). The Dodgers continue to win the annual Dodger of the Year, I'm sorry, Rookie of the Year award as they have the last three seasons with Eric Karros, Mike Piazza, and Raoul Mondesi. This year's candidate is Japanese import Hideo Nomo, who reminds fans of Valenzuela and not merely because both were pitchers from other nations. Valenzuela's noticeable tic was that he rolled his eyes upward during delivery of a pitch. Nomo takes a very long windup before releasing the pitch, an advantage at surprising the hitter and disrupting his timing but a major disadvantage when he has someone on first base with speed. LA will go with a "United Nations" staff of knuckleballer Tom Candiotti (US), Ramon Martinez and Pedro Astascio (Dominican Republic), Nomo (Japan), Ismael Valdez (Mexico), and potentially newcomer Chan Ho Park (South Korea).
The Dodgers will have the best pitching staff and some good offense, the Rockies will have an okay pitching staff and a blistering offense. These two are likely to battle it out, but you have to give LA the advantage over a young team in the pennant race, particularly with Tom Lasorda still calling the shots.
PREDICTED FINISH
1) Los Angeles
2) Colorado
3) San Diego
4) San Francisco
Tomorrow: AL East