BREAKING 2025 LB Luke Metz Commits to Alabama

jjv0004

1st Team
Dec 13, 2017
979
1,492
167
Greenville, SC
Ratings don't matter, yet all projected Alabama 1st round picks (Turner, Latham, etc) in this year NFL draft were top 50 recruits.
The same for last year.
Yes. Clearly the best recruits are typically the best players. I get that. My point is that you can have a handful of guys on your roster that are not highly ranked that turn out to be great players. Those guys will make your overall ranking go down, which will keep you from winning a recruiting title. But, Clemson and Michigan have proven over the last 10 years that you don't have to always win at recruiting to have success.
 
  • Like
Reactions: some_al_fan

some_al_fan

Scout Team
Jan 14, 2024
125
209
52
For Bama yes and for some others but many 1st rounders were 4*, 3* and even 2* and some were not in the top 250 of Rivals.
Of course, not every 5* will become a 1st rounder. However, it would have been ~34% (11 on your list for 2023). So, if you’ve signed a 5* then 34% chance then that player would be drafted in the 1st round.
On the other hand, there are ~300(https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-com-football-team-recruiting-rankings-formula) 4*. 9 were drafted in the 1st round. That is a 3% chance.
For 3*, 8 were drafted in the 1st round in 2023. Out of 500 3* players. That is a 1.6% chance.

So, based on 2023 draft, if you are:
- 5* -> 34% chance to be drafted in the 1st round
- 4* -> 3% chance to be drafted in the 1st round (what is not accounted for here is that top100 had a higher chance)
- 3* -> 1.6% chance to be drafted in the 1st round

So, ratings matter.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gtgilbert

TiderJack

Hall of Fame
Jul 9, 2010
12,486
6,957
187
Inverness, AL
Of course, not every 5* will become a 1st rounder. However, it would have been ~34% (11 on your list for 2023). So, if you’ve signed a 5* then 34% chance then that player would be drafted in the 1st round.
On the other hand, there are ~300(https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-com-football-team-recruiting-rankings-formula) 4*. 9 were drafted in the 1st round. That is a 3% chance.
For 3*, 8 were drafted in the 1st round in 2023. Out of 500 3* players. That is a 1.6% chance.

So, based on 2023 draft, if you are:
- 5* -> 34% chance to be drafted in the 1st round
- 4* -> 3% chance to be drafted in the 1st round (what is not accounted for here is that top100 had a higher chance)
- 3* -> 1.6% chance to be drafted in the 1st round

So, ratings matter.
I think a better way to look at would be what percentage of 5*, 4* and 3* were drafted in the 1st round. Of course there are a lot more 4* and even more 3* players in every class than 5*'s. I agree rankings matter.

1st round percentage
5* 34%
4* 28%
3* 25%
 

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
5,162
5,816
187
Cumming,Ga.
Yes. Clearly the best recruits are typically the best players. I get that. My point is that you can have a handful of guys on your roster that are not highly ranked that turn out to be great players. Those guys will make your overall ranking go down, which will keep you from winning a recruiting title. But, Clemson and Michigan have proven over the last 10 years that you don't have to always win at recruiting to have success.
You can probably leave Michigan out of your argument…but I agree…