Bama vs Barn Point Spread Question

PacadermaTideUs

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I think I read somewhere last year that double-digit favorites in the Iron Bowl win like 95% of the time, or something like that.

Anyone else remember / know more about that?
Win straight up? Or win against the spread?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if double-digit favorites in the iron bowl win straight up 95% of the time. It seems to me like in a rivalry as passionate as the iron bowl, the tendency would be for the spread to be deflated more than it would be inflated. In other words, a definitely inferior team would be expected by bettors to play over their heads and keep the game closer, so the spread would be lower, not higher than it would otherwise be. If the spread was in the double digits, that would indicate a very large disparity between the two teams, and the favorite should probably win outright almost every time.

But I'd be very surprised if the favorite in the iron bowl wins against the spread 95% of the time when the spread is in the double digits.
 
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Bamabuzzard

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Here is a little info about betting lines. The lines are set to encourage betters to bet and lose, they have little or nothing to do with who will win/lose. They put out a line like Bama -15 to hook betters to bet either way. Here is something else to watch...if a line, any line, moves significantly that means the majority of betters are going that way. And finally my point is that most betters lose. JFYI
If that's the case then there are a lot of coincidences every week because on most occasions they are pretty accurate.
 

JIB

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I don't know about that article. The guy said we are playing them on the Friday after Thanksgiving. We have not done that since 2010. Plus, where did he get this about auburn being 7-4?
The article was published in 2009.

So it's actually 28 of 37. I think. Since then the favorite is 3-1.
 

crimsonaudio

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Apologies for this being long, but if you're interested in how the lines are actually set and move, read on...
I appreciate this post - as someone who has never bet on games (and have zero desire to start) it's always been a bit of a nebulous concept to me regarding how it all works.

After reading this, I find it even more interesting that he lines are so close to the final result so often.
 

Bamabuzzard

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I appreciate this post - as someone who has never bet on games (and have zero desire to start) it's always been a bit of a nebulous concept to me regarding how it all works.

After reading this, I find it even more interesting that he lines are so close to the final result so often.
Yeah, me to. That's why I think there is an element of expected outcome (by Vegas) built into the point spread.
 

cbi1972

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Yeah, me to. That's why I think there is an element of expected outcome (by Vegas) built into the point spread.
The starting line is what Vegas expects the betting public to fall on both sides of, which would correlate highly with the expected outcome of the game. Subsequently, the line moves to the extent they were wrong about the betting public's perceptions.
 

tide96

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if you want to talk about an interesting line, look at this week's: Bama -49 O/U: 52. HAHA
 

crimsonaudio

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Yeah, me to. That's why I think there is an element of expected outcome (by Vegas) built into the point spread.
But I don't think they would make as much money if that were the case - and money is why they do it. I think more than anything it shows that the betting public is wrong almost exactly half the time.
 

tide96

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if you want to talk about an interesting line, look at this week's: Bama -49 O/U: 52. HAHA
This is almost free money. If you bet a $100 over/over parlay and a $100 under/under parlay, there are not many scores where you lose money unless the Mocs somehow +10.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Since 1960 the team with the best record (going in) has won 78% (40-11) of the time. On two occasions both went in with a 9-1 record and split 1-1. When there has been a big difference in the records (more than 2 games (9-0 vs. 6-3) or better, the team with the best record has won 92% (22-2).

This year there will be a small difference (11-0 vs.10-1) and the team with the best small difference record going in has won 67% of the games. So, throw the record book out the window: The team with the best record going in has won 66-92% of the time.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Yeah, me to. That's why I think there is an element of expected outcome (by Vegas) built into the point spread.
I have been told that there are ways the "bookies" look at the game, much like JessN compares QB's, the OL's and such ~ and figure the winner off that, then they figure the public thinking into making the line. Interesting that this week Kansas State is favored over Oklahoma by 4.5 points. Of hundreds of thousands of pickers on ESPN pick 'em, 83.26% are picking Oklahoma to win. This is not for money as betting with a bookie. I suppose there is a balance there or the line would move up or down.
 

B1GTide

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But I don't think they would make as much money if that were the case - and money is why they do it. I think more than anything it shows that the betting public is wrong almost exactly half the time.
This is the premise behind sports book lines. They want the public to split perfectly evenly. The book then makes 110% on losing bets, the 100% covering the winning bets. Essentially, if the books sets the line properly they have no risk and a guaranteed 5% profit in a very short time frame on every single game wagered.

Casinos are not in the game to gamble. They do not want to carry any risk if they can avoid it. Sure, sometimes a huge percentage lands on one side in a particular game and no amount of line shifting can fix it - but since the public is wrong about 50% of the time, they win some of those and they lose some of those. Over the course of a year, they earn their 5% and smile all the way to the bank.
 

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