Biden to pull the US out of Afghanistan (Afghan Government has Fallen)

[TexasBama]

Seeing that it was the CIA and special forces who found and killed him (in Pakistan) it seems that a full invasion really wasn’t needed.

 

[Tidewater]

I think the Taliban has been sandbagging until we're out of there.

If they are smart they are. Just lay low until the foreigners are fully gone, then unleash the hounds. They’ll Talibs will make short work of the ANA I would think. Momentum counts for a lot.

 

[81usaf92]

If they are smart they are. Just lay low until the foreigners are fully gone, then unleash the hounds. They’ll Talibs will make short work of the ANA I would think. Momentum counts for a lot.

When I was over there my 2nd time I quickly learned the Afghan police were more competent than the ANA. If we had kids of farmers causing problems for our towers or fences we called the police more than the ANA. Granted that usually resulted in the police bringing a stretcher with them, but it wasn’t like watching a bunch of morons trying to replace a lightbulb.

 

[Tidewater]

I think that the only way we could have "saved" Afghanistan would have been to have a massive surge, deploying a much larger military force over there for a long time. There is no political will in this country for that. (I'm sure that won't stop the Republicans from claiming that Biden "lost" Afghanistan.)

Afghanistan was not ours to "win" or "lose". There has never been a tradition of a strong central government there and it would have taken a sustained effort to have created one. Unfortunately, we took our eye off the ball and chose to enter Iraq. We forgot about Afghanistan.

I think Biden had three choices:

1. Go all out in Afghanistan and make that the priority of our military for many more years. Accept that there is no great likelihood of success and that this will drain the budget and make us unable to deal with our strategic competitors, China and Russia.
2. Go the middle route. Maintain a small force that is not really noticed in this country. Hope that the Afghan government can straighten itself out. This is what we have been doing.
3. Withdraw. Try to make arrangements to provide some logistical support, but accept that this is the Afghans' war to win or lose, with loss being more likely. Do what we can to protect those who supported us.

I will tell you that the US and NATO are shifting gears to prep for what they call “near peer” opponents (because nobody can say Russia and China for fear of offending).
Different skills sets, different procedures are needed for high intensity warfare versus low intensity/counterinsurgency. The US military (and NATO) are getting ready for the high intensity fighting.
To give you some idea, for 20 years, NATO could fly anywhere it wanted inside Afghanistan. The Talibs had no air defense. When facing a near-peer competitor, that most definitely won’t be the case.

 

[Tidewater]

After we killed OBL we should have gotten out. I wonder how much the Iraq war cost? Now that is a country that I think we stay in because it's a local deterrent to Iran.

I think the reason the West did not pack up and leave once UBL was dead was the stupid movie Charlie Wilson’s War (and those who think like that). “If only we had not abandoned Afghanistan once the Soviets were gone, Afghanistan could have modernized,” blah, blah, blah.
I’m sorry, Afghanistan will be a fourteenth century feudal society when the rest of humanity is exploring the galaxy. And blood and treasure spent trying to modernize and democratize that place is money and blood wasted. Let them be what they want to be.

 

[B1GTide]

I will tell you that the US and NATO are shifting gears to prep for what they call “near peer” opponents (because nobody can say Russia and China for fear of offending).
Different skills sets, different procedures are needed for high intensity warfare versus low intensity/counterinsurgency. The US military (and NATO) are getting ready for the high intensity fighting.

The US military machine has been preparing for this since 1945. They are not capable of anything but fear and fear mongering.

 

[TexasBama]

I think the reason the West did not pack up and leave once UBL was dead was the stupid movie Charlie Wilson’s War (and those who think like that). “If only we had not abandoned Afghanistan once the Soviets were gone, Afghanistan could have modernized,” blah, blah, blah.
I’m sorry, Afghanistan will be a fourteenth century feudal society when the rest of humanity is exploring the galaxy. And blood and treasure spent trying to modernize and democratize that place is money and blood wasted. Let them be what they want to be.

I think calling them a 14th century feudal society is generous

 

[crimsonaudio]

Seeing that it was the CIA and special forces who found and killed him IN PAKISTAN it seems that a full invasion really wasn’t needed.

FIFY

 

[Tidewater]

The US military machine has been preparing for this since 1945. They are not capable of anything but fear and fear mongering.

Not sure I understand what you mean.
Does the U.S. military have a preference for high intensity warfighting against near-peer opponents? Sure.
Krepinovich's The Army and Vietnam tells the story of how the army leadership deliberately sabotaged President Kennedy's directive to prepare to fight insurgents in the Third World in response to Krushchev's announcement that the USSR was going to support independence movements there. The army leadership hated the idea and deliberately undermined the president's guidance.
I think the army, navy and air force leadership all prefer to fight the "clean" fight against conventional militaries of competitor nation-states. It is less ambiguous and the U.S. military excels at that.
Sometimes that is not the fight the U.S. get presented, though. The enemy gets a vote.

 

[uafanataum]

I will tell you that the US and NATO are shifting gears to prep for what they call “near peer” opponents (because nobody can say Russia and China for fear of offending).
Different skills sets, different procedures are needed for high intensity warfare versus low intensity/counterinsurgency. The US military (and NATO) are getting ready for the high intensity fighting.
To give you some idea, for 20 years, NATO could fly anywhere it wanted inside Afghanistan. The Talibs had no air defense. When facing a near-peer competitor, that most definitely won’t be the case.

I can tell you that some units shifted to that type of training 3 years ago.

 

[Tidewater]

I can tell you that some units shifted to that type of training 3 years ago.

And none too soon. The military cannot afford to specialize exclusively in either, because the enemy gets a vote.
Take something simple like medevac procedures, for instance. In Afghanistan, a guy get a sucking chest wound, and you call the medevac helicopter, which swoops in, picks him up and he is on an operating table inside an hour.
World War III breaks out in northeast Europe, and a guy gets a sucking chest wound, he ain't getting flown anywhere ("If it flies, it dies."), so unit commanders have to think about how they are going to ground evac seriously wounded soldiers. How long is the drive to the field hospital? How far forward can you place a field hospital. I guarantee you, neither the Russians nor the Chinese feel any guilt over plastering a field hospital with BM 21 rockets. They would not bat an eye.

 

[uafanataum]

China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

Beijing just can’t wait for the U.S. to get out of the way.

www.thedailybeast.com

I think China may be biting off more than they can chew.

 

[UAH]

China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

Beijing just can’t wait for the U.S. to get out of the way.

www.thedailybeast.com

I think China may be biting off more than they can chew.

This is truly a case where China was given third base by the developed world being willing to overlook trade abuses including outright theft of intellectual property in order to purchase cheap poorly made junk produced by their slave labor. Now they think that they hit a grand slam. They must be economic geniuses! Right? It would be good to see how they do when the playing field levels a bit.

 

[TexasBama]

China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

Beijing just can’t wait for the U.S. to get out of the way.

www.thedailybeast.com

I think China may be biting off more than they can chew.

I’d expect their ROE to be less cordial than ours

 

[Tidewater]

I will go on record now. There will be some bad scenes coming out of Afghanistan over the next couple of months. …
Many will make their way to the U.S. and claim asylum, since they were "fighting for the U.S." and so the U.S. owes them. And they will come in the thousands. They will not speak English and will have no discernible skills.

Right on cue. These guys at least speak English.
U.S.Planning to evacuate thousands of Afghan interpreters.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Right on cue.
U.S.Planning to evacuate thousands of Afghan interpreters.

Anything is better than the way we've treated our interpreters and indigenous support personnel in the past...

 

[uafanataum]

I’d expect their ROE to be less cordial than ours

Yes. When I was over there our ROE were down right ridiculous. Of course we were not trying to win a war when I got over there. We were trying to win hearts and minds.

 

[formersoldier71]

There is talk of bringing Afghan soldiers out of Afghanistan to train them, so we can send them back to fight. My guess is that wherever they decide do this "training," every one of the Afghan soldiers will go AWOL as soon as they possibly can and claim asylum.
Many will make their way to the U.S. and claim asylum, since they were "fighting for the U.S." and so the U.S. owes them. And they will come in the thousands. They will not speak English and will have no discernible skills.

I agree with the general sentiment. High up on my "do not trust" list is an Afghan in a uniform.

Right on cue.
U.S.Planning to evacuate thousands of Afghan interpreters.

In this particular case, there should at least be a decent chance that as interpreters for U.S. forces, they can speak English.
And they should already be vetted.

…. the Taliban are ruthless and the Afghan government forces are incompetent.

Agreed and Agreed.

 

[Tidewater]

Well, this is probably not the right answer.
US troops left their key Afghanistan base at 3 a.m. without telling their allies, leaving 5,000 Taliban prisoners in their cells, reports say
I understand the need for OPSEC (and the Afghan military is not really to be trusted), but dang...
I guess that is one way to avoid the "last helicopter out of Saigon" photo op. Just don't tell anyone you're leaving.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Well, this is probably not the right answer.
US troops left their key Afghanistan base at 3 a.m. without telling their allies, leaving 5,000 Taliban prisoners in their cells, reports say
I understand the need for OPSEC (and the Afghan military is not really to be trusted), but dang...
I guess that is one way to avoid the "last helicopter out of Saigon" photo op. Just don't tell anyone you're leaving.

Looters rushed in and occupied the base. When the Afghans found out we were gone, they moved in the next day and evicted the looters. The first thing which occurred to me when I heard the way we left was they were determined there would be no repeat of Saigon, but there does seem to me that there must have been some middle ground...