This is gibberish from a biased source using a study that provides estimates from a population in Geneva Switzerland that we are supposed to extrapolate to the US population? That makes no sense. It's bad "science" and is not relevant to a US population.
I suggest using a source with less bias using relevant data based on information from the real world in the US and not an estimate based on a study out of Geneva.
Due to the unreliability of serum antibody tests at this stage infection fatality rates derived from such seroprevalence are completely unreliable as true estimates. In any case using the population of Geneva to project a rate in the US makes no sense from a scientific standpoint.
A more appropriate projection regarding the US was done. Link:
COVID-19 does not discriminate, and young athletes are not immune to complications
www.cbssports.com
Quote:
A noted University of Illinois computer science professor has some troubling data to consider regarding widespread infection and even death.
Dr. Sheldon Jacobson told CBS Sports he expects a 30%-50% infection rate of the approximately 13,000 players competing in FBS this season.
Based on his research, he also projects 3-7 deaths among those players due to COVID-19.
"A few of them could end up in the hospital, and you'll have a small number who could die," Jacobson told CBS Sports. "I don't want to sugar coat it for you. I just want to give you the facts. … If everybody comes together under normal circumstances, we'll probably see that kind of outcome."
Jacobson made his projections from CDC data that estimates one death per 1,000 people who have symptoms in the college age group (18-22). Taking into account that range and medical care provided for football players, the death rate would be lower than the general population, Jacobson said.
He stressed those numbers could change. Based on available statistics, less than 1% of the U.S. population has been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Approximately 5% of the 2.6 million cases in the U.S. have resulted in death.
Obviously, not everyone has been tested. However, with students assembling in large numbers on campuses in the fall, that ramps up the overall risk and likelihood of infection at universities.
"I guarantee someone is going to die," Jacobson said. "The virus does not discriminate."
Linemen are the most susceptible because of their generally obese body types.
Jacobson's estimates were backed up by Dr. Michael Saag, professor of medicine and infectious diseases at UAB.
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This does not consider the toll on coaches and other staff which will be at much higher risk than the players. Everyone in these sports is at higher risk to become infected as they are engaged in high risk activities and putting coaches and staff in a bubble is not possible on game day, much less practice and other related activities. That is not an option grounded in reality.
Cherry picking is not science. Using unreliable data to create an estimate from a single source in a city thousands of miles from the US and then extrapolating that to the whole of the US when more relevant data is available is, at best, bad science.
The article linked and quoted about a study to answer this specific question is much better suited to make a realistic scenario for college football in this country.