OK, here goes - and I know nothing about the NFL, or at least certainly not what I know about college football. NFL is FAR MORE EQUAL (e.g. in the NFL, the 0-16 Lions could, in fact, beat the 16-0 Patriots on a given Sunday. App State isn't going to beat the current incarnation of Alabama even if Devonta Smith misses the second half. Not so sure about whether Michigan would hold off App State, but I digress).
For starters, I simply have a bit of a problem going against Tom Brady. This is NOT the first time or even the second time he is taking a seeming underdog into a Super Bowl against a stud quarterback. Nobody gave his Pats a chance against Kurt Warner's Rams in 36, and the obligatory "the Patriots dynasty is dead" articles after they lost to the Chiefs (41-14) were followed by Pete "Dunderhead" Carroll outsmarting himself and Brady rising to the occasion in the fourth quarter. Yes, Brady, has lost 3 Super Bowls, but I don't see Eli Manning taking snaps for the Chiefs. (I wonder if I should point out that when Brady lost in 2011, the Patriots were 31st in a 32-team league in yards allowed, 29th in yards per play surrendered by defense, and 31st in passing defense yardage surrendered). In short, two of Brady's three Super Bowl losses have come with some pretty wretched defenses, and the other involved pressure nobody has ever felt combined with perhaps the luckiest catch in 54 Super Bowls by David Tyree.
I'm not saying Brady is invincible, but Tampa has enough of a defense to offset some problems.
The matchup looks relatively even to me statistically speaking. Further proof in this is the fact they met during the regular season, and the Chiefs tore out to a quick 17-0 lead and then held on to win, 27-24, in Tampa. That might be a pretty good guide - but then again, the Saints swept the Bucs in the regular season (including winning a 38-3 massacre in Tampa), and it made no difference in the playoff game.
I'm sorry, but I'm still not on the Andy Reid bandwagon. Look, the guy is clearly a very good coach, but he's a world-class choke artist, and his team suddenly scoring 21 points when down by 10 in the fourth quarter last year no more magically transforms him into a "non-choking" coach than Gene Chizik winning a national title turned him into a competent one. KC was MUCH BETTER in talent on the field than the 49ers last year. Yeah, the 49ers were 13-3, but the 1998 Falcons were 14-2, too - and the 49ers falloff was almost as bad as Atlanta's was back then. I can cite example after example of "team plays above their heads and makes the Super Bowl and then turns back into a pumpkin." the Chiefs were a TON better top to bottom than San Fran last year, and they still needed an all-world performance in the final 8 minutes just to pull out a game they should have won going away.
Tom Brady and Tampa are a better team with a better defense than the 49ers last year, and Tom just flat WILL NOT get nervous no matter how far behind. While I think the Chiefs are the more talented team, it's not the slam dunk, either.
If I have any bias, it's in favor of the Chiefs. My Dad is from Missouri and lives there, and he recalls the old AFL days (even watching Super Bowl IV). I LIKE the Chiefs. I DON'T LIKE Tom Brady - but it's like my "I hate Ohio State" bias, it's because he's damn good!!
I can see this game going one of three ways:
a) Chiefs win big
b) Chiefs win close
c) Tampa wins close
My prediction? I'll go with c. If I'm wrong, sue me.
There's a reason it's VERY DIFFICULT to win consecutive Super Bowls in the free agency era.
Your previous back-to-back winners:
Green Bay - 1,2
Miami - 7, 8 (and lost 6)
Pittsburgh - 9, 10
Pittsburgh - 13, 14
San Fran - 23, 24
Dallas - 27, 28 (free agency begins on March 1, 1993, right after Dallas wins Super Bowl 27)
Denver - 32, 33
New England - 38, 39
Your teams who won one and got a chance for consecutive but lost the Super Bowl (with game lost)
Dallas - 13
Washington - 18
Green Bay - 32
Seattle - 49
New England - 52
Four of the five losses were single-score final scores.