CFP Scenario - #1 - What would you do?

crimsonaudio

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Good point. Look, no one is scared of UGA’s offense. Particularly with Bennett under center. Daniels is a bust too. Their defense is generational though.
Yep - statistically they're almost as good as Bama's 2011 squad.

But I'm not sure how they'll fare against a potent modern offense. They're unquestionably good, but just how good remains to be seen.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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Yep - statistically they're almost as good as Bama's 2011 squad.

But I'm not sure how they'll fare against a potent modern offense. They're unquestionably good, but just how good remains to be seen.
I'd like to see them play Oklahoma this year in the playoffs assuming Caleb Williams is legit. Oklahoma's defense would probably lose them the game but I'm just curious about how it would go
 

PA Tide Fan

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Yep - statistically they're almost as good as Bama's 2011 squad.

But I'm not sure how they'll fare against a potent modern offense. They're unquestionably good, but just how good remains to be seen.
Georgia would have lost the opener to Clemson if the Clemson offense would have had a pulse. Hard to say how their season would have gone if they lost that game. Beating Clemson certainly gave them confidence before starting conference play.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Our 2011 and 2015/16 defenses were too. Each of them lost a game. Lose the wrong game, and well, you know. 2016 did. 2011 and 2015 were fortunate to get another shot.
And to be fair, the 2015 loss was hardly the defense's fault. You can't turn the ball over five times and give people short fields. Yeah, I know the number was 43 points but something like 23 of those points were due to turnovers and another 14 or so due to once in a lifetime plays or uncalled penalties on eighty-one ineligible receivers downfield.
 

JustNeedMe81

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  • Cinci wins out going undefeated
  • Ohio State runs the table
  • Oklahoma wins out going undefeated
  • Georgia goes to the SECCG and loses to Bama
  • Bama wins out
Who do you take?
1. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Georgia.

Cincy lose out because if Georgia wins out and goes to SEC championship and lose... they wouldn't fall from #1 to outside 4.. so they end up #4. There is precedent for that.

Cincy only get in if Alabama beats Georgia so bad or Alabama lose.
 

buckeyeFB_

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It would all depend on how bad BAMA beat Georgia. If we were to expose Georgia, and win a blowout, they would take Cincy. And, that is a possible. WH
It's certainly possible that the committee would leave out a 12-1 Georgia team if ya'll blow them out in the SEC title game, but I don't think it's likely.

Notre Dame got blown out in the ACC title game last season and still got in.
 
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buckeyeFB_

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Yep - statistically they're almost as good as Bama's 2011 squad.

But I'm not sure how they'll fare against a potent modern offense. They're unquestionably good, but just how good remains to be seen.
I agree -- you never really know how good a defense until you see them play an offense with a really good passing game (and the talent level to match them).

Defending Bama's passing game will be a unique challenge for Georgia.
 
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jashleyren2

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  • Cinci wins out going undefeated
  • Ohio State runs the table
  • Oklahoma wins out going undefeated
  • Georgia goes to the SECCG and loses to Bama
  • Bama wins out
Who do you take?
This is interesting, and somewhat likely. I start with the undefeateds, and review who they've beaten, then look at how far above in the final official poll they are, from the first 1 loss team.

Right now, if UGA were to win out, then lose to Alabama, Cincy would move to #1, assuming they are still undefeated, and I think they will be. They are IN. They get in not bc of the strength of their schedule, but because they won all their games, and they are several slots ahead of the next one loss team.

Right now, if Oklahoma wins out, wins their conference, they are IN. Again, not because of the strength of schedule or margin of victory, but because they are undefeated, and they sit a spot or two above the highest ranked 1 loss team. Which would be:

Now, we get to the 1 loss teams scenarios. If Ohio State wins out, and assume they are ranked 3, 4, or 5, because UGA isn't going to fall far should they lose to Alabama (which I do not think it likely they lose to the Tide, sad to say), then Ohio State is the next team in line around Georgia, either a spot above or a spot below. So, I take Ohio State.

Now, the UA/UGA winner: what to do? Assume both would have 1 loss, and Alabama the conference champion. I feel compelled to honor the conference title of the SEC, with a single loss on their record, to a good team, possibly highly ranked Texas A&M.

So, in your scenario, my CFP is 1 Cincinnati, 2 Oklahoma, 3 Ohio State, and 4 Alabama. Georgia, by virtue of that 1 loss and not being the conference champion, but losing it as the last game of the season, is left out. It doesn't seem "fair" to the great team that UGA is, to leave them off, but it strengthens the case for an expanded playoff, which I'm indifferent about. I actually think that my 1 and 2 is going to happen. Easy peasy. But, I feel like OSU and Alabama both are not their best versions of themselves, and will not win their respective conferences. So, I'll keep Georgia as it stands today, as the most realistic 1 seed in the CFP, then Cincy, then OU, and #4 is literally anyone's guess. The Big 10 is far from settled. The PAC 12 is a long way away from having one of their conference champs actually be ranked anywhere near the top 4 teams. The ACC is an afterthought, and Wake Forest may argue that they are deserving, should they run the table and win it, which I also don't think is likely.

Per usual, this stuff comes into greater clarity in the last month of the season.
 

jashleyren2

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Every fan in America would say Cincy should be left out, but they won't be. In an age of hyper fairness and equity, they get in. The bigger debate is who of the one-loss teams gets left out? It seems like it would have to be one of the SEC teams. Surely it wouldn't be fair to have them both in ;) (even though, again, every fan in America would say they were both top 4 teams). If UGA is left out, the state of Georgia's meltdown will be nuclear.
I'm one of those few who feel they shouldn't be left out. Why? Because they won all their games, and the polling folks/coaches poll has given them the high ranking. Put them in, and let them prove it on the field. If they win their semi, they will prove they belong. If they lose their semi, and lose it in fantastic, beat down fashion, coaches and polling folks will be MUCH more picky in the future. I actually don't believe they are worthy to be on the field against any of the other teams mentioned, but we shall see. They handled ND, with relative ease. As would Alabama, OSU, or Georgia. Oklahoma seems like the one that will get in by reputation alone, should the win out, but that remains to be seen.

I don't punish OSU for the early season loss, and a close one to a highly ranked opponent, at that. I also don't punish a 1 loss Alabama, who wins their conference title over presumed #1 Georgia, because the SEC champ should always have one of the 4 seats at the table.

But, I'm not taking Cincy out for anything other than a loss, which I don't think they have a likelihood to pick up, rest of the way. Put them in, let them prove on the field. All the talk about expanding the playoff, and mid-majors not getting a fair shake, gets tested in 2021. Coastal lost at App State last night. Neither of those teams would be alive after the first half against ANYONE in the current top 10. I want to see Cincy prove their worth. They might, or they might get an ugly lesson. But OU is in, if they walk through the rest of their schedule and win the Big 12. OSU is in if they win out, and win the Big 10, a highly competitive conference this year. Georgia, or the SEC champion, also gets in. And that's all.
 

jashleyren2

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One more thought came into my mind, during this fun, and interesting debate: What if a 2 loss Auburn goes to the SEC title game (gag), and defeats UGA to win the SEC title. Do they get in? A 2 loss LSU team got to play for the title in the old BCS days, 2007, the weird year it was. And they won it all.

I see no scenario, assuming Cincy, OU, and OSU win out and win their conference title games, where 2, 1 loss SEC teams can get into the CFP. No scenario. It's either Georgia, undefeated and conference champ, or Alabama, 1 loss and conference champ. Auburn is the fly in the ointment in my scenario, as we stand today. Not considering even, that the BIG 10 still has 2 undefeated teams (UM, MSU), though that will settle soon.
 
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jashleyren2

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I agree -- you never really know how good a defense until you see them play an offense with a really good passing game (and the talent level to match them).

Defending Bama's passing game will be a unique challenge for Georgia.
I hope you're right. I don't have the confidence in our pass blocking to believe we can hold a hard-charging, Kirby Smart, blitzing defensive scheme. Our receivers have been slow, at times, to get open. Bryce has a quick trigger, but his accuracy has been suspect when under pressure.

I challenge Georgia's defense the same way that teams used to challenge our defense when Kirby was at Alabama: have the QB see the blitz, and take off. Huge gaps appear in that defense. Field all day in front of him. This will cause Kirby to back off, which gives the running game more room to work. Result is long drives, and hopefully, points in the end zone.

Bryce has shown he can scramble effectively. If I even sniff that they are going to be bringing a heavy blitz package, Coach BoB needs to instruct the offense to allow it to pass Bryce, and let him run all day. Maybe even some called QB runs to the outside of protection. Spread the field wide.

This is all assuming Alabama gets there, and I'm not certain of it. Auburn stands in Alabama's way. The game is at the Lee County Landfill, it's an odd year, a new coach, they only have 1 conference loss (to UGA), and they are currently playing to get to that game. Heck, they do that every year. Don't say I didn't warn you.