CFP Scenario - #1 - What would you do?

[jashleyren2]

So you are saying if Bama wins out and beats the number 1 team in the SECC game they don't deserve to move up from the number 4 spot?

Oh, no way! If the Tide does what they are absolutely capable of, yeah, they move up. Perhaps my wording didn't make that clear. Bama even moved up in the poll this week, as OU looks so vulnerable, but keeps winning. I think Okla State is going to get them in Bedlam.

But, if 2 undefeateds stll remain, after conference title games (let's say Cincy, Michigan/Mich State, and UGA has just one loss (to Bama in SEC title game), Bama is as high up as they are going to go, at #3. I expect an undefeated Big 10 champ, if that happens, to leapfrog Bama, prior to conference championship week, with the expectation that it will all sort itself out with UGA and Bama playing one another.

The Big 10 is holding the keys to it all, at the moment, but it's a very light grip. The winner of Mich/Mich State this week becomes the favorite to get into the CFP (knowing full well that Mich is still to face a surging OSU, and also win a conference title game).

 

[jashleyren2]

You forgot two key phrases:
a) on the road
b) on the last play of the game

The committee has shown the good sense to view losses in context. This is not a 31-point road loss at Iowa.

And losing a game earlier in the season hurts a lot less than losing in November/December. Ohio State is going to completely be forgiven of their loss to Oregon, who has just played average football since their win, while the Buckeyes have curb stomped everyone.

Basically, we are all just talking about football right now, because we love it. The real ball is about be played starting this weekend, and even more so throughout November.

 

[TideEngineer08]

We lost to a two-loss, unranked team with it's backup qb. I think at some point that might come back to haunt us.

It would be good for us if A&M continues to win. Which, I think they will. The facts you list here won't be erased, but the context will be that A&M was actually a lot better than they were thought of at the time.

 

[jashleyren2]

Cincy's biggest problem is that Alabama still has to play #1 Georgia (hopefully) so they'll theoretically have a win over the then #1 team in this scenario. And Georgia would have its only loss to us while dominating Auburn and Kentucky plus a bunch of other goodish teams.

Ohio State still has to play Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State

Oklahoma still has to play Oklahoma State

Basically all those wins are more impressive than beating Notre Dame (i honestly think Notre Dame drops at least 1 more game possibly 2) and most of those teams other wins are miles better than anyone else Cincy plays outside of maybe SMU.

So cincy's big win isn't as big as any other contender and the rest of their schedule is far below everyone elses.

It just makes no sense for them to make it in the scenario the OP laid out.

I agree with you, but the pollsters and coaches have laid their cards on the table. They believe right now that Cincy is the 2nd best team. Are we going to start bumping undefeated teams down, winning week after week, because someone "prettier" won an admittedly bigger game? Is there precedent for that? Then why not just keep Cincy at 4/5 throughout the year?

Essentially, all of us fans should know that polls don't matter until that first CFP poll comes out. Yet, all the polls the weeks prior seem to matter, as wins during the season are stacked and compared.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

And losing a game earlier in the season hurts a lot less than losing in November/December.

That was true before 1998.
It hasn't been now for almost 25 years.

2016 - Clemson lost to Pitt on Nov 12
2017 - Alabama and UGA both lost to Auburn in November

Hell, 2003 Oklahoma lost in DECEMBER and stayed at number one.

Ohio State is going to completely be forgiven of their loss to Oregon, who has just played average football since their win, while the Buckeyes have curb stomped everyone.

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around how "Ohio State whipped everyone else" translates into "Ohio State didn't actually lose at home to Oregon, who has the same record."

If you're promoting a sport where the results actually matter, there is zero way to get around a head-to-head when a team has the same record. Ohio State got selected over Penn State in 2016 NOT because of the head-to-head loss (which was close like this year) but because Penn State had two. That would not apply to Oregon at this point.

Basically, we are all just talking about football right now, because we love it. The real ball is about be played starting this weekend, and even more so throughout November.

yeah largely.

What never made sense pre-playoff was "loss in December means more than in October." In the playoffs, it makes sense in that immediate context.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

This is all assuming Alabama gets there, and I'm not certain of it. Auburn stands in Alabama's way. The game is at the Lee County Landfill, it's an odd year, a new coach, they only have 1 conference loss (to UGA), and they are currently playing to get to that game. Heck, they do that every year. Don't say I didn't warn you.

It all depends on which officiating crew is assigned to the game...

 

[deliveryman35]

It would be good for us if A&M continues to win. Which, I think they will. The facts you list here won't be erased, but the context will be that A&M was actually a lot better than they were thought of at the time.

I actually think Auburn will beat them too.