Climate News & Discussion: Part 2

TexasBama

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This is his original post in this thread. Seems innocuous. Everybody jumping on him but nobody answered his question.
I think jt answered it in pointing out that pesky sundown. Not to mention an ocean that’s at 50F.

ETA. Conflating CO2 in the atmosphere with a big one day temperature drop doesn’t seem innocuous to me
 
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seebell

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This is about all I could find. Pretty good article.



But as the low-pressure area weakened and shifted to the north late Monday, it allowed onshore flow of winds off the ocean to return to coastal areas, which brought significant cooling.

Portland had its biggest overnight drop in temperature on record between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, as the mercury plummeted 52 degrees, from 116 to 64.
 

NationalTitles18

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This is his original post in this thread. Seems innocuous. Everybody jumping on him but nobody answered his question.
Oh, but I did answer the question.

View attachment 17143

I remember the days of finding every nugget to support my wish that climate change wasn't real while ignoring the sea of science and specialists saying it was. Ahhhhh, the "good" old days of cherry picking ignorance I "enjoyed"...

"Breezy southwesterly winds Monday evening brought rapid cooling..."
 
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TexasBama

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I laugh at my own suffering... Beginning Friday the consecutive highs are predicted as:

100

102

102

101

It's already been like this for over a week with no end in sight.

Our average historical high for July? 84 F
You guys are hot and dry out there, but we've been getting a goodly amount of rain here. Are we in an El Nino?
 

NationalTitles18

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You guys are hot and dry out there, but we've been getting a goodly amount of rain here. Are we in an El Nino?

El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
SPherical map of tropical Pacific showing the May 2021 temperature anomaly

NEUTRAL
The central tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral climate state and is likely to remain that way through the summer. A return to the cool, dry conditions of La Niña is slightly more likely than neutral in late fall and early winter. The chance of El Niño (warm, rainy conditions) is less than 10%.
Latest official ENSO update
Latest ENSO blog update
(image at left) Map of May 2021 sea surface temperatures compared to average showing the continued fading of La Niña's cooler-than-average temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on NOAA EVL data.
We've had a ridge making it hot and dry. No telling when this ends.
 
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NationalTitles18

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
243 PM PDT Mon Jul 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows mainly clear skies across
southern Oregon and northern California. The exception is over
Brookings and offshore where marine status is overhead. A few fair
weather cumulus have started developing in Lake and Siskiyou
Counties as well. Overall, this is indicative of the area of high
pressure we`re under as well as the thermal trough bringing hot,
dry, and breezy conditions.
A heat advisory remains in effect for
portions of Jackson County and Western and Central Siskiyou County through
tomorrow evening. Meanwhile, the air quality alert for East Side
Valleys issued by Oregon DEQ is set to expire at 5PM today. These
remain on track, and with air quality remaining in the moderate
with occasional degradations to unhealthy for sensitive groups,
will wait for DEQ to reevaluate before keeping things ongoing.

The pattern begins to change tomorrow as a weak disturbance moves
across the Pacific Northwest.
This will largely bring breezy winds
with slightly cooler temperatures across southern Oregon and
northern California. With extremely dry conditions, it will
prompt some fire weather concerns for portions of the east side,
so I recommend reading the fire weather portion of the discussion.
The other change that will occur is that some cumulus buildups
will be possible across portions of the Cascades north of Crater
Lake and Chemult and stretching eastward into portions of northern
Lake County. There is a slight chance that one of these cumulus
buildups could overachieve and put down a lightning strike.
Still, expect things to be isolated at best.

This change will be short lived with temperatures beginning to
increase as the next thermal trough builds and pushes inland this
weekend. It is likely that additional heat products will be
needed, but these will need to be evaluated and coordinated with
future shifts. Still, be prepared for the hot and dry conditions
to continue over the foreseeable future.
-Schaaf

&&

.AVIATION...For the 05/18Z TAF Cycle...Along the coast and over the
coastal waters...Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys in marine stratus
and fog will return to the coastal areas this evening and the
coastal valleys tonight. The lower conditions will persist into
Tuesday morning. Over the Umpqua Basin...Areas of IFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys in marine stratus and fog from about Elkton west will
return tonight, persisting into Tuesday morning. Over the remainder
of the area... Areas of MVFR vsbys in smoke and haze, mostly from
the Cascades east will persist for the next 24 hours. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail into Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday 5 July 2021...A thermal trough
along the southern Oregon coast will remain in place through today,
then weaken Tuesday before strengthening again Wednesday. Gusty north
winds and steep to very steep seas will persist through today with
the strongest winds and steepest seas from Gold Beach south. North
winds will weaken tonight into Tuesday but steep seas will persist
through Tuesday morning. Gusty north winds and steep to very steep
seas will return Wednesday and persist through Friday. The strongest
winds and steepest seas will occur south of Cape Blanco.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday 5 July 2021...
The day-to-day changes in our weather during the next week look to
be mostly minor. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for much of
Modoc County and a portion of far eastern Siskiyou County this
afternoon and evening. Have upgraded the more expansive Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Tuesday afternoon. The Red Flag
Warning on Tuesday includes the same area but also larger swaths of
Modoc County and eastern Siskiyou County, and portions of eastern
Klamath and western Lake counties. Near critical conditions are
probable for a few hours Tuesday afternoon along and east of I-5 due
to moderate south winds and low RHs, but are unlikely to last for an
extended period of time.

Conditions will remain hot, very dry, and breezy inland this week
while night and morning marine pushes send stratus into the coastal
valleys. Winds will likely be strongest Tuesday ahead of an
approaching trough offshore. On Tuesday, this pattern should cause
enough instability to be sufficient for cumulus buildups and a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in Northern Klamath and
Lake County.

The upper level trough will result in a stronger marine push Tuesday
night with stratus likely to filter into the Umpqua Valley for
better humidity recovery. The trough will move inland Wednesday and
bring several degrees of cooling for Wednesday and Thursday. While
any improvement in conditions is welcome, the result will be inland
high temperatures that are still several degrees above normal.

This improvement will not be lasting. A ridge will quickly rebuild
Friday. Humidities may be at their lowest on Friday (Min RH
primarily 6-9% on the east side and 8-20% from the Cascades
westward) with a return of hotter temperatures into the weekend.

A continuing concern will be high Haines Indices in and around the
Lava and Tennant Fires. Both sites will mainly fluctuate between a
Haines of 5 and the maximum value of 6, highlighting the potential
for plume-dominated fire behavior.
-Miles
 

B1GTide

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Told a friend the other day "If this is what climate change brings us I'm buying a diesel generator and running it 24/7 in my back yard..." :)
Both of my boys are looking to buy land in the Northeast, away from the coast. They believe that it will be the best place to raise a family in the coming decades. Based on current data, they are probably right.

My wife and I are likely going to sell our place in Cocoa in the next few years. It is hard to ignore the possibility that it could be gone if the right storm tracks just wrong, and we wouldn't rebuild there. Selling while property values are still high makes more sense.