First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

[RTR91]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

Why in the heck are so many people over at ESPN pretending like Alabama's SoS isn't top 10? Their SoS is silly high, their schedule is very hard. They can talk about SoS, but when it came to Alabama they just forgot how to use the word, or what it means. Pretty poor journalism.

They don't want to believe it even though their own ranking system says it.

The players can't try to say they don't watch rankings, either. Video of reaction here

 

[BamaMoon]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

They don't want to believe it even though their own ranking system says it.

The players can't try to say they don't watch rankings, either. Video of reaction here

That's awesome!!!! Thanks for posting!

 

[CrimsonHammer]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

Ole Miss was out the moment they lost to Memphis. That's a bad loss.

According to the poll, that loss was better than our loss. But the fact that it was a second loss likely puts them out barring some crazy finishes for other teams. I won't be surprised when they lose to Arkansas this weekend.

 

[mdb-tpet]

Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

If you go by a fairly objective source like Sagarin's rating, no one has played and won with a schedule even close to Alabama's. We've played and beaten 4 out of 5 teams in the top 30 of his rankings. And we're about to play the 6th team, with a 7th team on the horizon. You can hate our team, but you gotta give this team props for beating some real competition which the playoff committee did, unlike Baylor (104th best schedule) or Ohio State (68th best schedule). If we win out, only a total partisan can say we aren't deserving of a place in the playoffs.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

 

[G8RNGA]

First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I think the committe must have taken into account the fact that Bama has basically ruined two pretty good teams seasons: Georgia and TAMU.

While those teams look pedestrian now, they were "all that" when Bama beat them down.

They also gave us passes on the close loss to OM and the close win agaist UT.

And while we might not like it if the shoe were on the other foot, "the eye test" is being employed in their thinking/rankings at this point.

About the only way to explain Bama's #4 initial ranking.

Yup. As for Florida, it's cheer for FSU to beat Clemson and then Florida win out. Our offense under Treon has been pedestrian as well and although I'm hoping for an improvement over the next few weeks, I honestly think it will require a team win going forward. I'm sure the committee factored in our QB play if they admittedly took into consideration Chubb out at UGA and a 3rd string QB in at UGA when we played them. If our offense was clicking better as when Grier was in, I think we would have been placed slightly higher - say 8 or 9.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I think some folks are not taking into account that all of the Big 12 contenders have yet to play one another. That will boost their SOS. Again I think if they produce an undefeated team, they are guaranteed a playoff spot.

I tend to agree a one loss SEC champion is in. What I don't agree with is that we control our own destiny at this point. We need to win the SEC. Otherwise a lot of dominos need to fall. Basing anything off of this ranking isn't wise. We watched TCU drop from 3rd to 6th in one week last year. Granted I think it was justified, but don't think it won't happen again.

 

[BamaMoon]

Re: What happens if Ole Miss and us both win out?

This is being kicked around in the other big thread, but if we win out and OM wins out a couple of things could happen to render OM as a 2 loss SEC champion an unlikely play off entry.

First, if we win out that means we beat LSU and LSU might just do exactly what other teams Bama has beaten does, fall to pieces.

If OM beats a LSU team that falls to pieces after losing to Bama will not help them as much as it will help Bama beating LSU while they are #2.

Second, if Florida loses to FSU, OM beating them in the SECCG will not look nearly as impressive.

This scenerio (with Bama winning out and finishing 11-1) coupled with some other fortunate breaks with other conferences could in fact land Bama in the playoff.

 

[BAMARICH]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

I too think UF was ranked a little lower than they should have been. However, the good news for you guys is that, along with about 8 other teams, you totally control your own destiny. If y'all win out (including the SECCG), you're going to be in the playoff. If you lose between now and then, the water gets murky...

 

[G8RNGA]

I too think UF was ranked a little lower than they should have been. However, the good news for you guys is that, along with about 8 other teams, you totally control your own destiny. If y'all win out (including the SECCG), you're going to be in the playoff. If you lose between now and then, the water gets murky...

I guess it will depend upon the SEC West champion IMO. If Ole Miss gets there and we beat them again, I'm not sure that will be enough and especially if we don't do so in the same fashion.

It's so hard for me this year since we weren't expected to be at 7-1 and aren't playing the greatest (especially the last two games). The eyeball test says we don't belong, but our resume says we do. It may be the same if we win out and it will take a convincing win over a 1 loss Alabama or undefeated LSU. An SECCG win over Ole Miss may just be ho-hum.

 

[derek4tide]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

When we played UGA, they were ranked #8. When we played aTm, they were ranked #10. When we played Wisconsin, they were ranked #20. The committee looks at the rankings at the time of the game, not now. This is why Bama's SOS is #3.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

I think some folks are not taking into account that all of the Big 12 contenders have yet to play one another. That will boost their SOS. Again I think if they produce an undefeated team, they are guaranteed a playoff spot.

I tend to agree a one loss SEC champion is in. What I don't agree with is that we control our own destiny at this point. We need to win the SEC. Otherwise a lot of dominos need to fall. Basing anything off of this ranking isn't wise. We watched TCU drop from 3rd to 6th in one week last year. Granted I think it was justified, but don't think it won't happen again.

The Big 12 is definitely the hardest to peg right now. How much of the ranking is a message about overall schedule strength and how much is just the reality of a back-loaded schedule?

Totally agree that we shouldn't be basing anything off this ranking as its meaningless. But it sure is fun to make arguments based on these rankings!

 

[EscaTider]

Wow, just getting settled into work and everyone hates me. Tis the way of things when you're the lone Bama guy in a sea of 'Noles, Auburnites, gators, etc. Never heard so much crying and wailing.

Apparently, the REC has infiltrated the playoff committee according to these crazies. [emoji36]

 

[BamaMoon]

When we played UGA, they were ranked #8. When we played aTm, they were ranked #10. When we played Wisconsin, they were ranked #20. The committee looks at the rankings at the time of the game, not now. This is why Bama's SOS is #3.

Thanks for pointing this out. Trying to justify that Bama hasn't played a tough schedule based on where teams are ranked now is revisionist history.

 

[RTR91]

When we played UGA, they were ranked #8. When we played aTm, they were ranked #10. When we played Wisconsin, they were ranked #20. The committee looks at the rankings at the time of the game, not now. This is why Bama's SOS is #3.

Have to love the media members crowing about this. They want to try to go by the current rankings instead of the rankings at the time of the game. If that's the case, why do many participate in the AP preseason poll?

 

[CajunCrimson]

Okay the poll is a bit of a head-scratcher for anyone outside of Birmingham or their fans! Let me begin by saying I'm excited we have two SEC teams in the top 4, that Florida is in the top 10, and that a few teams were not placed higher than they needed to be. I also think Florida is a little low and was hoping for somewhere between 6-8. I will use UF as an example of why it's a bit head scratching. Now, on to a few facts that don't justify UAs 4th best team placement.

1. Florida's best win was over #18, while Alabama lost to #18.
2. Alabama's best win was over #19, while Florida lost to #2.
3. Cumulative record of the teams Alabama has faced is 37-30.
4. Cumulative record of the teams Florida has faced is 36-29.

I'm not advocating Florida to be in the top 4, but how can one be justified and the other not? I've heard that the committee felt that when we played UGA it was without Chubb and their starting QB. Florida can't help that Chubb was injured or that Richt decided to play his 3rd string QB for no justified reason! C'mon man!

Just needing to be Captain Obvious here!

I think people have rationalized that Bama should have beaten Ole Miss - except for a fluke play and an illegal play....

2nd -- you beating Ole Miss has increased OM's SOS - thus helping our SOS.....

Using Sagarin as a rating system.....

Florida has played New Mexico State (Ranked #187), East Carolina (#87), Kentucky (#68), Tennessee (#18), Ole Miss (#12), Missouri (#59), LSU (#11) and Georgia (#30)
Bama has played Wisconsin (#19), MTSU (#98), Ole Miss (#12), UL Monroe (#153), Georgia (#30), Arkansas (#36), A&M (#24), UT (#18)

Florida = 4 vs Top 50
Bama = 6 vs Top 50

Not sure what they are looking it.....and honestly, I'd prefer Bama be #7.....and UF be #4.....

 

[EscaTider]

Have to love the media members crowing about this. They want to try to go by the current rankings instead of the rankings at the time of the game. If that's the case, why do many participate in the AP preseason poll?

Exactly. Also, the fact that we crushed UGA is the biggest reason they started their downward spiral. Of course these teams aren't ranked as highly as when we played them- we've blown them out! Such weak arguments from these clowns.

 

[G8RNGA]

When we played UGA, they were ranked #8. When we played aTm, they were ranked #10. When we played Wisconsin, they were ranked #20. The committee looks at the rankings at the time of the game, not now. This is why Bama's SOS is #3.

I see what you mean, but my point is not to say what they were when you played them, but how the committee sees their value now. If they don't see Ole Miss any better than 18 and UGA any better than 19 today, then why place a 1-loss team to #18 when compared to a 1 loss team that smashed the same team and only loss by 7 points on the road, with a 2nd string QB to the #2 team should be higher? Is a one loss to #18 better than a 1 loss to #2? Don't parse out the SoS or what they were ranked when, just approach it objectively on how they placed the team rankings today.

 

[CrimsonForce]

It matters to the players..

https://mobile.twitter.com/parkerbearden/status/661699325249089536

 

[G8RNGA]

Have to love the media members crowing about this. They want to try to go by the current rankings instead of the rankings at the time of the game. If that's the case, why do many participate in the AP preseason poll?

I personally don't think the polls should come out before now. I think that's part of the problem!

 

[CajunCrimson]

I personally don't think the polls should come out before now. I think that's part of the problem!

Preseason polls are based on where teams are predicted to finish at the end of the year.....

And, I think you'll find that many teams that got beat (by Bama and others) early -- will often come back and be ranked at the end.....

So, UGA may well end up 9-3 and ranked in the Top 15-20....Wisconsin should end up 10-2 and ranked in the Top 12-15.....Ole Miss is likely to end up 9-3 and ranked in Top 15-20.....A&M will be 9-3 or 10-2 if they upset LSU.....and ranked in the top 15-20....

So, at the end, all of a sudden there will be a Top 25 full of teams Bama played.....people's perspective will change.....

This FPI predicts how teams will finish the season - and if they did, they may have analyzed the teams Bama has beaten and realized that many of these teams will end up with great records when it's all said and done....

but, when looking at the UF schedule so far, other than UGA, LSU and OM -- most of the other teams won't finish strong.....