JessN: Georgia preview: Bama already had a tough task before Saban's illness

CoachJeff

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Games are won on the offensive line and the last two games I've watched our defensive line has gotten beat by the opposing team's OL. Ole Miss and aTm's OL handled our DL quite well, especially Ole Miss. They opened up holes the entire game that if they had any form of a defense they would have easily won that game.
Christian Barmore was just getting back for the TAMU game.

Ole Miss had success running the ball with tempo. I think this game will see more lining up, checking everything out, and then snapping the ball.

One guy I expect to have a big impact is Will Anderson. Unlike the Ole Miss game I expect he'll have plenty of chances to tee off on the QB and he won't be put in positions of having to think a lot. I expect that he will have his best game of his young career against UGA.
 
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DogPatch

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It took an EXTRA day of INTERNALIZING to get this pessimistic? JessN, what was your prediction PRIOR to the COVID-19 positive test by Coach Saban? Now, that you are pessimistic, this makes me much more OPTIMISTIC about Bama's DEFENSE. Now, based on what has occurred so far for both teams, I agree with JessN about Alabama's OFFENSE, every position, being better than the Dawgs and the Dawgs DEFENSE being better than Bama's DEFENSE. Maybe #17 will return a couple of punts or Kickoffs for TD's. Maybe the DEFENSE will FINALLY show-up. Maybe Coach Sark will have a few surprises for Jawga, Jess, et al. Maybe our Defense will stop playing COVID-19 DEFENSE. #9 missing the 1st half could hurt some. However, NEXT MAN up. I normally do NOT make a prediction, but Bama 45 Jawga 24 enters my brain. Recommendation for Coach Sark, we may need you again NEXT week, so do NOT get closer than 10 feet to THAT Jawga coach, before or after the game. Just wave at him. P. S. To Alabama's DEFENSE, JessN doesn't think very highly of you guys. It's time to prove to him and me that our DEFENSE can play SOLID DEFENSE! Remember! You are playing at HOME. Don't let Jawga come into YOUR house and embarrass you! Kick Dawg BUTT for Coach Saban!
Dude, chill with the bold and all caps.
 

PA Tide Fan

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Even though the breakdown comes out at 4-4 I think given the importance of QB play in modern football I'll go with the team with the best QB. There's a huge difference between Mac Jones and Stetson Bennett. And if Jones is ineffective or gets injured we have Bryce Young who I think is even better than Bennett.
 

Crimson Speed

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Georgia may not have the innovation on offense Ole Miss has, but they do have the manpower on the OL to do the same to our DL that Ole Miss did. If they JUST do that it will be very hard to win this game. So I see why Jess came to the conclusion he did, not that I think it's going to playout that way. Because I do think we find a way to win. But it is not unreasonable to see why someone could pick UGA, especially after watching the Ole Miss game and parts of the aTm game with respect to our defense.

SO Y'ALL QUIT PICKING ON OLE JESS!!!! :ROFLMAO:
Buzz, I agree with you. However, no way I would place a wager on either side of this one. It could come down to the last team with the ball. And yes, Jess is just calling it the way he sees it. RTR.
 

imauafan

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Last week I started out overly optimistic and then became more pessimistic the closer we got to game time. I began to think about Lane's offense against our defense and it turned out about like I expected. This week is the opposite, I was initially pessimistic after the defensive debacle last week but now I'm becoming more optimistic. I don't think UGA has anywhere near the firepower that Ole Miss has and I have a hunch we will see some improvements with our defense this week. Unless we have some uncharacteristic mistakes our offense should be good for at least 30+ points which I think will think will be enough to win the game. UGA only scored 27 against AU so I don't expect them to score any more than that against us. Bama 33 UGA 26.
 
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GrayTide

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I appreciate Jess's analysis whether you like it or not. I agree with him (no surprise to any of you.... I know). I will go with the team with the better defense, and I also agree it will be extremely close, a real white knuckler. I will be back here after the game to eat crow if I am wrong, as I have done before.
 

BamaNation

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Jess needs no defense from me BUT ... I'm curious...

Why would y'all want to read someone who only picks the Tide to win every single time no matter what? Why would you read that? Who would you trust to give you a fair analysis (even one you disagreed with) - crimson shades dude/ette or @JessN?

Give me Jess ... EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. He knows what he's talking about, puts the energy and effort into crafting beautifully written pieces with incredible analysis and gives us a "break it down and analyze it" without the I'm-a-stupid-talking-head that we get from everybody else. I want Jess to write what he analyzes - even if everyone disagrees with him and even if Bama ends up winning or losing 100-0 - because I know he has the ability and insight the few have and can articulate it. If he picks Bama to lose (which he has rarely done) you know he will be the happiest person alive if he's wrong.
 

81usaf92

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My only issue with the analysis is the part where he said “the best defense generally wins”. I’ve seen Georgia and Auburn for the last few years and neither are great when having to score more than 30. If you think Georgia’s defense is going to hold Mac then we really need to look at last year’s IB when he hung 40 on a better defense than this. Then you look at LSU vs this same UGA team, they have comparable stats to our defense that same year. I personally believe “take the better defense” days are over when you are comparing offenses where one has a dinosaur offense and the other has a video game offense.

I don’t fault anyone from picking UGA. But I just don’t know if “take the better defense” rule really applies in this case. This UGA defense has a habit of getting scorched by these kinda offenses.
 

B1GTide

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I don't expect Jess to predict an Alabama victory if he sees it another way, but here is what I saw in the article:

* He says that GA clearly wins the match-up between GA DL and Alabama's OL. That is so wrong that it has to be driven by despair. Alabama has the best OL in the country. No DL is clearly better than your OL.

* He says that the best defense usually wins. This is no longer true, and hasn't been in a number of years.

* He does not give Alabama's superior offense enough credit - not by a long shot. The team with the best QB generally wins close games, and Alabama's QB, receivers, RBs and OL are ALL better than GAs, by a long shot.

* He gives the ST to GA because they have the best kicker and punter, but Alabama's kicker is awesome and Alabama returners are so much better than GA's that it at least makes the groups a draw - especially since they have a rank amateur running their ST. To add, if their punter continues to kick his punts as he has all season, Waddle will run it down GA's throats. Seriously, that punter could be their downfall. Lots of leg, but his kicks are low and returnable if the returner stays far enough back to catch it while moving forward. He will have to decide - yardage or kick for the sidelines, away from Waddle.
 

TideEngineer08

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Jess needs no defense from me BUT ... I'm curious...

Why would y'all want to read someone who only picks the Tide to win every single time no matter what? Why would you read that? Who would you trust to give you a fair analysis (even one you disagreed with) - crimson shades dude/ette or @JessN?

Give me Jess ... EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. He knows what he's talking about, puts the energy and effort into crafting beautifully written pieces with incredible analysis and gives us a "break it down and analyze it" without the I'm-a-stupid-talking-head that we get from everybody else. I want Jess to write what he analyzes - even if everyone disagrees with him and even if Bama ends up winning or losing 100-0 - because I know he has the ability and insight the few have and can articulate it. If he picks Bama to lose (which he has rarely done) you know he will be the happiest person alive if he's wrong.
He is my favorite writer besides Cecil Hurt. He occupies rarified air in this industry.

I simply disagree with his conclusions at times, but I always enjoy reading his articles and analysis, and frankly, would trust him over myself a great deal of the time.
 
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GrayTide

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If Jess's prognostication is correct (4-4), and it usually is, we will see once and for all whether great defense or great offense decides the outcome.
 

JDCrimson

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I am looking to see how well Rhea & Ballou have prepared our team for a physical game like this. All I have heard this offseason is how much faster and explosive our players are now. But I am not seeing. I see DL that have trouble getting off blocks.
 

GrayTide

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I should have said once and for all Saturday night. Under normal circumstances a championship caliber team has a balance of offense and defense. At this point in the season Clemson appears to have this balance. IF, the OM game proves to be a true indication of our defense then we are nowhere near the team most of us thought we would be. We will know more about this team after tomorrow night.
 

81usaf92

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I should have said once and for all Saturday night. Under normal circumstances a championship caliber team has a balance of offense and defense. At this point in the season Clemson appears to have this balance. IF, the OM game proves to be a true indication of our defense then we are nowhere near the team most of us thought we would be. We will know more about this team after tomorrow night.
Here is the problem: LSU had a defense that gave up ALOT of points last year.

Here are some trouble games


September 76:30 p.m.at No. 9 Texas*No. 6ABCW 45–3898,763


September 2111:00 a.m.at VanderbiltNo. 4SECNW 66–3832,048


November 166:00 p.m.at Ole MissNo. 1ESPNW 58–3753,797


November 236:00 p.m.ArkansasNo. 1ESPNW 56–20101,173


Do any of those teams look like world beater offenses?

Now lets look at the SEC championship game


December 73:00 p.m.vs. No. 4 GeorgiaNo. 2CBSW 37–1074,150

If I was to tell you based on those previous games that the same team would beat Georgia by 27 points; Would you believe me? And the crazy thing is that all having a great defense mattered vs LSU was 80 less yards of defense than Alabama while Alabama rushed for 60 yards more than Georgia.

The point is that it is more about how well a particular offense matches up vs a particular defense, and how good the other side of the equation is. Alabama's defense isnt going against Georgia's defense. Or maybe a better reference is this.... Alabama in the Gene Stallings era constantly had a top half defense in the SEC, and were a running team. What is his record vs Spurrier? 1-5 with an average score of UF 28-18. Offenses have gotten far more explosive and have fewer restrictions than they did when Spurrier was the King of the SEC. Anyone that is committed to running the ball while going against a highpowered offense is basically bringing a knife to a gunfight. Sure the team with the better defense can win, but it far less likely.

The only shootout Kirby has ever won was vs Oklahoma. In all others he has pretty much gotten blown out or he chokes.

Again, I dont fault anyone for picking Georgia. I think the "best defense" argument is a bit outdated. If you say that you believe that Georgia is going to hold us under 30 then fine, but Im just struggling to see why so many believe that Stetson is going to go over 30 when Jake Fromm couldnt in these type games against much of the same defenses in shootouts.

Anyway RTR
 

LeBron47

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Jess love this site... have always loved your analysis and you could be spot on in this one. One thing I would like to bring up and I think the game hinges on and for me it are these two questions that will answer themselves in the game. First is how good is GA defense. Stats aside, this answer depends how how good their opposition has been. Arky simply is not that potent on offense... Anyone who thinks Barney is a juggernaut on offense hasn’t watched their games, and UT while very scrappy isn’t an offensive juggernaut either. I am not sure of their offensive stats apart from the GA game (their opponents) but it’s easy to build terrific stats against inferior opponents. This game for GA will be their first big test and they have struggled against Arky and UT the first half of each game. They can afford no struggles against Our Offense. If UT scored 21 on them we would score 42 ...

How bad is our defense? Since Jeremy left for UT our defense while very talented has never looked the same. Especially with teams that do the “hurry up game”. The main reason that our DC’s are not as quick in getting our calls in leaving our D out of position prior to the snap. Even with that our D has gotten the stops needed to hand the ball back to our potent O to win the game. GA has no “fastball offense” nor are they likely to come up with one in seven days. They will line up leaving time for the defense to get set and I think that will be the difference in the game.

Unless I missed something GA has not out recruited Alabama in any of the past five years. They haven’t done too shabby and do have talented players... perhaps equal in some places but never better than. Unless the coaching is inept the talent will eventually take over in the game.

To sum up I don’t think GA is as good as their stats proclaim, nor is our D has bad as we look against OM. Different offensive philosophy will cause our defense to be in position to get the stops needed to turn this game in our favor. GA defense will spend the entire game trying to keep up with our offense.

I see the game 49 - 20 UA... Hope I am right but can also see where your analysis looks better.

RTR!!!
 
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The Ols

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Four games in CFB so far this week...Four "overs"...Offense is way more prevalent now that in the Defense wins everything and 3 yards and a cloud of dust era...

I love that we're known traditionally as a stone wall on D, but if we have to put op 30+ to beat UGA, I can handle that too...RTR!!!
 

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