Georgia's current run vs Alabama's from 2011 and 2012

[TexasBama]

they have only been in the playoffs for 2 consecutive years. and they were in the playoffs in 2017

math is tricky

 

[BamaMoon]

I may get mooed for this, but I think we'd have lost last night by 17 or more.

We'll never know, but what we saw in Georgia last night was a team that came out on the field KNOWING they were the dominant team and as long as they didn't hand TCU points they'd win going away.

It was the same scenario when we played ND in 2012.

A team that is playing loose, fast and confidently against an inferior team looks like what we saw last night.

Kirby's pregame interview said it all. They KNEW they win. Kirby was like an 8th grader entering a fight with a 4th grader. I doubt he'd been as confident if CNS would have been on the other side.

One thing we know is Georgia doesn't come out playing with that much confidence against Bama. Now, who wins? Nobody really knows. But considering the coordinator issues, yeah, we could have lost by 17.

 

[B1GTide]

GA has been a Tier 1 team for 6 seasons now, with 3 CFPCG appearances and 2 CFPCG wins while playing in the SEC. That is great, and the model has sustained itself through staff changes and player changes - and it is not reliant on super stars to get over the hump.

Alabama needs to find that fire again, and soon, or it really will be over.

 

[Jay Hughes]

I may get mooed for this, but I think we'd have lost last night by 17 or more.

Moo! You probably thought that we would have lost to K State also. We matchup well against Georgia. We may have lost or we may have won. I would have definitely give them the edge.

 

[92tide]

math is tricky

well ackshually, 2 is a number

 

[sanjosecrimson]

All of the justification in the world is not going to change the fact that they have been in the playoffs for a number of consecutive years and have just won two NC's in a row. If we face it honestly the majority of us would believe that they would have beaten Bama last night with the Offensive and Defensive coaching that Bama currently has.

I am not justifying anything, just stating facts. And as far as playing them last night, who knows the exact outcome would be, but I do know a month of preparation under a Nick Saban team would fare much, much better than a TCU team we witnessed.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Let's not forget, Georgia has benefited greatly from Tennessee, Florida and even Auburn being down the last decade or so.

Alabama plays Tennessee every single year.
Alabama plays Auburn every single year, too.

So if Georgia has benefited from those two teams being down, I'm not sure how you say Alabama didn't benefit as well. As far as Florida, well, we played them five times in the last nine years - including 2 national championship years - so it's hard for me to even try and make this a valid argument.

Furthermore, Arkansas hasn't been THAT MUCH BETTER than Vandy the last decade

Vandy since 2012: (52-81)
Arky since 2012: (56-79)

Considering:
a) Vandy won the only game between the two teams during that time frame (45-31 in 2018)
b) the quality of athlete at Arky is VASTLY better than at Vandy

This is a wash. Arkansas has been about two games better than Vandy over the last decade - and that differential came this year, when Arky was four games better.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I am not justifying anything, just stating facts. And as far as playing them last night, who knows the exact outcome would be, but I do know a month of preparation under a Nick Saban team would fare much, much better than a TCU team we witnessed.

We wouldn't have had a month of preparation for the game last night.
Neither did TCU.

 

[Jay Hughes]

Alabama plays Tennessee every single year.
Alabama plays Auburn every single year, too.

So if Georgia has benefited from those two teams being down, I'm not sure how you say Alabama didn't benefit as well. As far as Florida, well, we played them five times in the last nine years - including 2 national championship years - so it's hard for me to even try and make this a valid argument.

Furthermore, Arkansas hasn't been THAT MUCH BETTER than Vandy the last decade

Vandy since 2012: (52-81)
Arky since 2012: (56-79)

Considering:
a) Vandy won the only game between the two teams during that time frame (45-31 in 2018)
b) the quality of athlete at Arky is VASTLY better than at Vandy

This is a wash. Arkansas has been about two games better than Vandy over the last decade - and that differential came this year, when Arky was four games better.

So you don’t think that GA has had an easier path in the SEC than Bama over the last several years?

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Alabama plays Tennessee every single year.
Alabama plays Auburn every single year, too.

So if Georgia has benefited from those two teams being down, I'm not sure how you say Alabama didn't benefit as well. As far as Florida, well, we played them five times in the last nine years - including 2 national championship years - so it's hard for me to even try and make this a valid argument.

Furthermore, Arkansas hasn't been THAT MUCH BETTER than Vandy the last decade

Vandy since 2012: (52-81)
Arky since 2012: (56-79)

Considering:
a) Vandy won the only game between the two teams during that time frame (45-31 in 2018)
b) the quality of athlete at Arky is VASTLY better than at Vandy

This is a wash. Arkansas has been about two games better than Vandy over the last decade - and that differential came this year, when Arky was four games better.

I'm talking about Georgia and their overall SEC East schedule along with those 3 teams I mentioned being down for the most part with the exception of Florida who managed to play in the SECCG 3x in the last 7 years.
You picked Arky as your argument to counter Vandy?? What about LSU, Ole Miss or even Auburn compared to Kentucky, Missouri or S. Carolina??

 

[sanjosecrimson]

We wouldn't have had a month of preparation for the game last night.
Neither did TCU.

Splitting hairs here, aren't we?

I think you know what I meant if Bama were selected for the Playoffs.

 

[bamacon]

The litmus test for me is what Saban and the team do after enduring what he had to endure last night on the ESPN set. When Pollack made it a point to glance over his way and say "Georgia has a hold/grip on college football" and hearing Rece Davis, an Alabama alum emphatically proclaim "Georgia is now the standard of college football", what does that "do" to Saban? How does he respond in his preparation, intensity, etc., when he gets back to Tuscaloosa? We should be able to tell right out of the gate next season what it did or didn't do.

And yet you still only get “WE WANT BAMA” signs

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Splitting hairs here, aren't we?

Not when you're the one who said this:

I am not justifying anything, just stating facts. And as far as playing them last night, who knows the exact outcome would be, but I do know a month of preparation under a Nick Saban team would fare much, much better than a TCU team we witnessed.

We wouldn't have under ANY circumstances had "a month of preparation," which is a point you're claiming to make.

If we had beaten LSU, we would have played UGA seven days after the Auburn game.
If we had won, they would have separated us - especially if the other 3 teams were all the same - to formulate the matchup so the semis weren't both rematches.

There is not a single set of circumstances where Alabama has a month to prepare to play Georgia barring one that wasn't going to happen.

That Alabama would NOT have lost by 58 points, well, nobody in bowl game history had ever done that, either. But then again - had we been a one-loss team, we would be there.


Reminder: you are the one who threw in the caveat of a month to prepare.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

So you don’t think that GA has had an easier path in the SEC than Bama over the last several years?

Who cares?

But let's take that into account and do some analysis. We will set aside the obvious cupcakes not named Auburn for this review (e.g. FCS or WAC, etc).

POWER 5 OOC
Georgia played Clemson (21) and Oregon (22)
Alabama played Miami and Texas (on the road)
Clemson was better than Miami in 21 and Oregon was better than Texas in 22.

Georgia wins that argument on both counts.

COMMON OPPONENTS
Florida 21 - Georgia wins a rout, we escape
Arkansas 21 - Georgia wins a rout, we escape with a 7-point win
Auburn 21 - Georgia wins a rout, we escape with a 4 overtime win
Tennessee 21 - both win a blowout
Auburn 22 - both win a blowout
Vandy 22 - both win by the same 55-0 score
Tennessee 22 - UGA win, Alabama loss
MSU 22 - Alabama by 24 at home, Georgia by 26 on the road
LSU 22 - Georgia blowout win, Alabama loss.

Georgia went 9-0 against all common opponents.
Alabama went 7-2 with 3 narrow wins.

The season consists of 13 games minus the 3 cupcakes is 10, which times 2 is 20 plus we count the SECCG in 22 since UGA DID have to play them with something on the line.

Out of the 21 games that count, NEARLY HALF are common opponents and when you add in the two OOC games where UGA faced tougher teams, OVER HALF of the schedule for UGA is "the same or harder."

Now we look intra-division.

DIFFERENT FOES
Georgia (in division) had Kentucky, Mizzou, Vandy, SCAR both years
Alabama (in division) had Ole Miss, aTm, LSU, Arky both years

2021
Since aTm beat Mizzou and S Carolina by routs, it's reasonable to conclude they were better than any Eastern team save UGA. I think it's reasonable they were better than 10-3 UK.

Ole Miss beat Tenn and Vandy, but who is surprised by that?

Arky beat Mizzou, again who does this shock?

MSU beat Vandy and Kentucky

Auburn lost to both UGA and SCAR

LSU beat UF and lost to Kentucky.

In this limited universe, aTm is better than any SEC team UGA played (other than Alabama) but hardly helps our case given we lost. Florida and Vandy were clearly the bottom of the conference, LSU and Auburn would be right above them. And yes, one could reasonably argue that aTm, Ole Miss, Arky, and MSU were better than 10-3 Kentucky, the 2nd best team in the Eastern division. So that Alabama HAD A MORE DIFFICULT DIVISIONAL ROUTE in 2021 is true. How much does that count, though?

2022
LSU got blown out by Tenn and UGA and beat UF
MSU lost to both UGA and UK
Ole Miss beat both UK and Vandy
Arky beat SCAR (early) and lost to Mizzou
Auburn beat Mizzou on a fluke and lost to UGA (count Mizzou a loss for even being close)
aTm lost to UF and SCAR
Tenn beat Alabama and LSU
SCAR beat aTm and lost to Arky
UK beat MSU and lost narrowly at Ole Miss (by 3)
Florida beat aTm but lost to LSU

So AGAIN (no shock here)....Vandy was the worst.

But in 22, Tennessee was still better than any team in the West (they got blown out by an East team late in the season) - they manhandled LSU and beat us. Who was the 3rd best team in the West this year? Ole Miss needed two UK turnovers in the final 3 minutes at home to escape - and UK beat MSU, who did beat Ole Miss.

So you probably have:

1) Georgia
2) Tennessee
3) Alabama
4) LSU
5) SCAR
6) Kentucky
7) MSU
8) Ole Miss

And Vandy wasn't as bad as they've been in previous years.

It is indisputable the 2021 West was tougher than the East.
It's not all that far apart in 2022, including Vandy. Indeed, you can argue the East was probably as good as the West this past year.

So UGA MAY have had a slightly easier route to the championship than Alabama did - but how much easier? 10%?

Is there REALLY any such thing as an easy route in the SEC?

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I'm talking about Georgia and their overall SEC East schedule along with those 3 teams I mentioned being down for the most part with the exception of Florida who managed to play in the SECCG 3x in the last 7 years.
You picked Arky as your argument to counter Vandy??

How many people think Vandy and Arky have basically been the same ever since Bobby Petrino did his Evel Knievel impersonation with a cupcake not named Mrs Petrino?

Nobody would have believed that - but that's how bad Arkansas has been.
They have been Vandy.

That was all I was saying.


Everybody has "automatic wins" on their schedule.

What about LSU, Ole Miss or even Auburn compared to Kentucky, Missouri or S. Carolina??

I didn't bring up Auburn because:
a) you had already brought them up
b) I had already made that point.

However, Vandy was 5-7 this year - just like Auburn was.

I didn't bring up LSU because UGA beat them this year and we didn't and - oh yeah - they're 2-3 vs the SEC East the last two years with losses by 21, 27, and 20.

Ole Miss was lucky to beat Kentucky this year and played Vandy both years, which isn't a good comparison.


The larger point is that going back a decade even knowing Arky isn't as good as they once were, most folks think their bad teams were basically just the Chad Morris era. They've been "Vandy of the West" since 2012 but most wouldn't think of them that way.

 

[The Ols]

Alabama plays Tennessee every single year.
Alabama plays Auburn every single year, too.

So if Georgia has benefited from those two teams being down, I'm not sure how you say Alabama didn't benefit as well. As far as Florida, well, we played them five times in the last nine years - including 2 national championship years - so it's hard for me to even try and make this a valid argument.

Furthermore, Arkansas hasn't been THAT MUCH BETTER than Vandy the last decade

Vandy since 2012: (52-81)
Arky since 2012: (56-79)

Considering:
a) Vandy won the only game between the two teams during that time frame (45-31 in 2018)
b) the quality of athlete at Arky is VASTLY better than at Vandy

This is a wash. Arkansas has been about two games better than Vandy over the last decade - and that differential came this year, when Arky was four games better.

No way I even mention this to my Arkansas friends...OUCH!!!

 

[selmaborntidefan]

No way I even mention this to my Arkansas friends...OUCH!!!

I was actually shocked myself.

I knew they'd been bad - I didn't know it was THAT bad.

 

[Tenntiderman]

All of the justification in the world is not going to change the fact that they have been in the playoffs for a number of consecutive years and have just won two NC's in a row. If we face it honestly the majority of us would believe that they would have beaten Bama last night with the Offensive and Defensive coaching that Bama currently has.

Very true. Reality...which can be changed. But for now...Reality.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

they have only been in the playoffs for 2 consecutive years. and they were in the playoffs in 2017

And they're still 1-7 against us since 2008.
In five of those seven losses, UGA had a double-digit lead.
Three of those five it was in the second half.

 

[92tide]

And they're still 1-7 against us since 2008.
In five of those seven losses, UGA had a double-digit lead.
Three of those five it was in the second half.

like i always say wrt jawjuh, i don’t need to talk smack, i have reality