Georgia’s perspective on SECCG

landonew

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No, you lost because your receivers covered their hands in grease throughout the game. That was the worst game by a set of receivers on a big stage that I can ever remember. Horrible.
One of those interceptions came in the last desperate moments and made Georgia's win look far more decisive then it was. By that time we had dropped 6 or 7 passes, including at least two likely touchdowns, which had far more impact on the outcome than Bryce's interceptions. Had we caught the ball – at all – the game long would have been over, with a different team significantly in front. In fact, Bryce would have been taking a knee instead of throwing the last pick.
You guys are right. The key to beating Georgia consistently is executing 40-50 pass attempts per game with no drops or interceptions. Have you guys ever thought of applying as Analysts at Alabama athletics. I think you could really make a difference.
 

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
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Cumming,Ga.
You guys are right. The key to beating Georgia consistently is executing 40-50 pass attempts per game with no drops or interceptions. Have you guys ever thought of applying as Analysts at Alabama athletics. I think you could really make a difference.
Why so snarky? Seriously?
Have you ever seen Stripes, the classic Bill Murray/Harold Ramis comedy?
If not, you should.
“Lighten up, Francis.”
*FTR…We DO beat Georgia regularly. 😁
 

landonew

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You guys are right. The key to beating Georgia consistently is executing 40-50 pass attempts per game with no drops or interceptions. Have you guys ever thought of applying as Analysts at Alabama athletics. I think you could really make a difference.
On a more serious note, College Football Analytics influences modern day coaching decisions. Analytics attribute 15.9 expected points to two turnover differential. This is why you can attribute the 2022 NCG loss to those two interceptions.

This is all pretty well accepted and validated by actuarial studies on historical statistics. If you’re interested in understanding more about Analytics, the following website is a good introduction.
 

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colbysullivan

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Dec 12, 2007
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The full games not long made it's way onto YouTube so my first chance to see the coverage.

I'll admit to not having a trained eye, but it didn't seem like the result was ever in much doubt and the 3pt margin was kind to Georgia.
This is what I have been telling all the UGA apologists I keep seeing. Bama took the lead early the 2nd quarter and never looked back.
 

colbysullivan

Hall of Fame
Dec 12, 2007
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I've watched it over and over in slow motion and concluded that's just more of their usual whining...
I’ll just say I’m glad they didn’t review it. While it WAS a catch per the rule, I have absolutely no faith in the officials to get it right. They blew the call where Burton’s foot is clearly in bounds with green between his shoe and the sideline. I will go to my grave remembering Ritter robbing Matt Caddell of that catch against LSU in 2007, and likely Bama of the victory as well. I don’t trust these morons.
 

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
5,152
5,795
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Cumming,Ga.
On a more serious note, College Football Analytics influences modern day coaching decisions. Analytics attribute 15.9 expected points to two turnover differential. This is why you can attribute the 2022 NCG loss to those two interceptions.

This is all pretty well accepted and validated by actuarial studies on historical statistics. If you’re interested in understanding more about Analytics, the following website is a good introduction.
I’ll bet you’re fun @ parties…
 

landonew

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Nov 21, 2023
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You guys are right. The key to beating Georgia consistently is executing 40-50 pass attempts per game with no drops or interceptions. Have you guys ever thought of applying as Analysts at Alabama athletics. I think you could really make a difference.
College Football Analytics attribute expected points
Why so snarky? Seriously?
Have you ever seen Stripes, the classic Bill Murray/Harold Ramis comedy?
If not, you should.
“Lighten up, Francis.”
*FTR…We DO beat Georgia regularly. 😁
I think a lot of thought, information, and expertise/experience goes into making situational coaching decisions. I think this fanbase has certain factons that have developed a sense of entitlement. It’s not enough to beat Georgia, the margin of victory must demonstrate dominance.

We do beat Georgia regularly. I think CNS aspires to 3-peat as SEC and CFP champions before he retires. Under the new conference and playoff structure, you should assume that these teams will play 2-3 times per year, and that Bama would need to sweep 6-9 consecutive games to ensure they 3-peat as both SEC and CFP champions.
 

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
5,152
5,795
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Cumming,Ga.
College Football Analytics attribute expected points


I think a lot of thought, information, and expertise/experience goes into making situational coaching decisions. I think this fanbase has certain factons that have developed a sense of entitlement. It’s not enough to beat Georgia, the margin of victory must demonstrate dominance.

We do beat Georgia regularly. I think CNS aspires to 3-peat as SEC and CFP champions before he retires. Under the new conference and playoff structure, you should assume that these teams will play 2-3 times per year, and that Bama would need to sweep 6-9 consecutive games to ensure they 3-peat as both SEC and CFP champions.
Is grass legal where you live?
 

RammerJammer14

Hall of Fame
Aug 18, 2007
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UA
College Football Analytics attribute expected points


I think a lot of thought, information, and expertise/experience goes into making situational coaching decisions. I think this fanbase has certain factons that have developed a sense of entitlement. It’s not enough to beat Georgia, the margin of victory must demonstrate dominance.

We do beat Georgia regularly. I think CNS aspires to 3-peat as SEC and CFP champions before he retires. Under the new conference and playoff structure, you should assume that these teams will play 2-3 times per year, and that Bama would need to sweep 6-9 consecutive games to ensure they 3-peat as both SEC and CFP champions.
No, it has to do with watching a lot of football across a lot of years. I am sure that a lot of analysis and data mining and statistics creating by some bright eyed data geeks goes into playcalling decision matrixes that coaches walk around with on Saturdays. Cool, good for them.

But just as a continuing example, 4th down analytics Lane has had a lot of close games get away from him by being a slave to data as opposed to just coaching a game. It’s a running joke, and it’s a running joke for a reason. Data geeks get WAY too wrapped around the axle of what a spreadsheet says sometimes.

When people say “I didn’t like how Alabama played ‘not to lose’ against Georgia”, they aren’t saying that because they feel entitled to beat UGA by 17 points. They say it because they have seen a lot of games slip away from a team because they start executing very conservative, low risk, low reward, highly predictable plays that gives the other team more time with the football to come back and win. It has nothing to do with feeling entitled. It has everything to do with believing that maintaining balance and some aggressiveness on offense is a better defense than going 3 & out and punting for large stretches of the game.
 

Tideflyer

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Dec 14, 2011
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Precisely why I watched with no volume…it was game changing. Legit, my frustration meter was sooo much lower, even in such an intense game, just by blocking those clowns out…y’all need to try it!!!
Done it for two seasons. Added immeasurably to the pleasure of watching the games. I just wish there was a way to watch and have TV in sync with the Alabama radio broadcast.
 

landonew

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Nov 21, 2023
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No, it has to do with watching a lot of football across a lot of years. I am sure that a lot of analysis and data mining and statistics creating by some bright eyed data geeks goes into playcalling decision matrixes that coaches walk around with on Saturdays. Cool, good for them.

But just as a continuing example, 4th down analytics Lane has had a lot of close games get away from him by being a slave to data as opposed to just coaching a game. It’s a running joke, and it’s a running joke for a reason. Data geeks get WAY too wrapped around the axle of what a spreadsheet says sometimes.

When people say “I didn’t like how Alabama played ‘not to lose’ against Georgia”, they aren’t saying that because they feel entitled to beat UGA by 17 points. They say it because they have seen a lot of games slip away from a team because they start executing very conservative, low risk, low reward, highly predictable plays that gives the other team more time with the football to come back and win. It has nothing to do with feeling entitled. It has everything to do with believing that maintaining balance and some aggressiveness on offense is a better defense than going 3 & out and punting for large stretches of the game.
Analytics generally does not support going for it on 4th down. It’s a misconception because Lane used analytics as an excuse for his aggressive play calling. Analytics is one factor that must be considered within the context of your team’s strengths and weaknesses. For instance, without an Elite defense, you cannot run the ball 44 times for 2.6 yds a carry and expect to win the game.

Virtually every professional coaching staff incorporate analytics into their coaching decisions. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be coaching professionally for very long. See Saban’s quote below.
 

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AWRTR

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Done it for two seasons. Added immeasurably to the pleasure of watching the games. I just wish there was a way to watch and have TV in sync with the Alabama radio broadcast.
I’ve done that before. If I remember right the radio is second or two behind. It’s not too hard to sync up with a well timed pause of the tv.
 

GulfCoastTider

Hall of Fame
The problem with relying heavily on analytics is that it's a probabilistic approach to a game played by humans. It's more similar to predicting outcomes in poker and stock picking than it is to mechanical or natural processes like relationships between dirt intake and engine wear or rainfall amounts and flood risk.

In all of these you're only forecasting a mean. The forecast mean has confidence bounds. The confidence bounds are about a mile wider on human processes than they are for non-human ones. All of this just means that humans are very, very good at making a stock picker, poker player or football coach look really stupid. Even when the call made perfect sense according to the data.
 

landonew

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[
The problem with relying heavily on analytics is that it's a probabilistic approach to a game played by humans. It's more similar to predicting outcomes in poker and stock picking than it is to mechanical or natural processes like relationships between dirt intake and engine wear or rainfall amounts and flood risk.

In all of these you're only forecasting a mean. The forecast mean has confidence bounds. The confidence bounds are about a mile wider on human processes than they are for non-human ones. All of this just means that humans are very, very good at making a stock picker, poker player or football coach look really stupid. Even when the call made perfect sense according to the data.
For certain, Analytics are one of multiple input parameters that factor into the human’s situational decision. I’m certain Analytics alone would not have supported Saban’s 4th and 4 decision just before halftime.

Here’s the rub. In many environments, you cannot make informed decisions without factoring in basic Analytics. You cannot properly size a preflop bet in poker without understanding the likelihood that suited connectors will make a straight or flush after the river.