Georgia’s perspective on SECCG

CajunCrimson

Moderator (FB,BB) and Vinyl Enthusiast
Staff member
Mar 13, 2001
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On a more serious note, College Football Analytics influences modern day coaching decisions. Analytics attribute 15.9 expected points to two turnover differential. This is why you can attribute the 2022 NCG loss to those two interceptions.

This is all pretty well accepted and validated by actuarial studies on historical statistics. If you’re interested in understanding more about Analytics, the following website is a good introduction.
is this only for games from 2013? I wonder since the game has changed so much if this still has relevancy
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
21,172
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I’ll just say I’m glad they didn’t review it. While it WAS a catch per the rule, I have absolutely no faith in the officials to get it right. They blew the call where Burton’s foot is clearly in bounds with green between his shoe and the sideline. I will go to my grave remembering Ritter robbing Matt Caddell of that catch against LSU in 2007, and likely Bama of the victory as well. I don’t trust these morons.
That was the point I was trying to make earlier about "if they had reviewed it." I was referring to a game stoppage when the head ref looks the play over on the monitor.

I've lost faith in them getting what's right right. While I agree the ball did move even though he had control of it, that introduces an uncertainty in the review and that's when it becomes much more subjective.

We see this happen all the time!

Since it was not "uncovered" by CBS until after the Bama TD, it does matter one way or another. There was nothing to be done other than for every UGA fan in the world to whine about it.
 

DawgAlum2054

1st Team
Dec 20, 2018
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There is a lot that happens in a football game and it is easy to try and point your finger at reasons for shortcomings. It is what is in everyone's nature to do after a loss.

I will say that despite the committee getting the final 4 teams correct, they opened up a huge can of worms by taking injuries into account in my opinion. Georgia had injuries everywhere, and injuries are a part of college football... but* those players would have been healthy for playoffs in 4 weeks. I am not saying that Georgia should have been in playoffs, I am using an example of the can of worms opened up by using injuries to determine team standings.

As far as the game goes from a Georgia fan, there were several things that happened, not just one.

Of course I would have liked to have seen the catch reviewed. It would have been interesting I think and could have gone either way. Why do I say this? Think about a play where a receiver catches a ball, goes to turn up field, and the ball is knocked loose. They look for a duration of control, not an instance of control, or a *football move* to have taken place. Outcome could have stayed the same, I just wanted to see it reviewed

On defense, I told those on this board that the interior defensive line was weak compared to years past... Alabama fully exploited that. I am not sure who was in charge of keeping up with Bond, but they were playing in the dirt instead of watching Bond.

On offense, a boneheaded turnover didn't help. A penalty to push a field goal back didn't help either. Alabama defense did an excellent job at adjusting after Georgia's first drive. I wish yall still had pete golding lol

Overall I am not upset as a Georgia fan. We saw two excellent programs capable of playing 4 quarters of football go at it. I am more appreciative than I am upset at going 44-2 over 3 years. Those two losses though... Alabama... Saban is still Kirbys daddy.

Also....Kirby and Bobo need to sit down and think about some things, primarily in QB. I believe the days of a pro style QB are nearly gone without elite receiver talent. A dual threat gives an OC more options and limits a DC. Georgia lost a defender or two just because they were keeping eyes on Milroe. Georgia also had to play a lot of zone, giving receivers room, all so they could keep eyes on Milroe.

National Champions
2022: Dual Threat
2021: Dual-threat
2020: pocket passer, elite receivers
2019: dual threat
2018: Dual Threat
2017: Jalen hurts, dual threat... Tua, somewhat dual threat
2016: dual threat
2015: dual threat
 
Last edited:

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
5,146
5,779
187
Cumming,Ga.
There is a lot that happens in a football game and it is easy to try and point your finger at reasons for shortcomings. It is what is in everyone's nature to do after a loss.

I will say that despite the committee getting the final 4 teams correct, they opened up a huge can of worms by taking injuries into account in my opinion. Georgia had injuries everywhere, and injuries are a part of college football... but* those players would have been healthy for playoffs in 4 weeks. I am not saying that Georgia should have been in playoffs, I am using an example of the can of worms opened up by using injuries to determine team standings.

As far as the game goes from a Georgia fan, there were several things that happened, not just one.

Of course I would have like to have seen the catch reviewed. It would have been interesting I think and could have gone either way. Why do I say this? Think about a play that where a receiver catches a ball, goes to turn up field, and the ball is knocked loose. They look for a duration of control, not an instance of control, or a *football move* to have taken place. Outcome could have stayed the same, I just wanted to see it reviewed

On defense, I told those on this board that the interior defensive line was weak compared to years past... Alabama fully exploited that. I am not sure who was in charge of keeping up with Bond, but they were playing in the dirt instead of watching Bond.

On offense, a boneheaded turnover didn't help. A penalty to push a field goal back didn't help either. Alabama defense did an excellent job at adjusting after Georgia's first drive. I wish yall still had pete golding lol

Overall I am not upset as a Georgia fan. We saw to excellent programs capable of playing 4 quarters of football go at it. I am more appreciative than I am upset at going 44-2 over 3 years. Those two losses though... Alabama... Saban is still Kirbys daddy.
That had to suck to type…great post.
If it truly was the 4 best teams WE ALL know that UGa would be in…now please go play angry and boat race FSU…
 

DawgAlum2054

1st Team
Dec 20, 2018
921
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That had to suck to type…great post.
If it truly was the 4 best teams WE ALL know that UGa would be in…now please go play angry and boat race FSU…
I read somewhere that if beating Georgia was good enough on a resume to go from 8th to 4th, then Georgia was one of the best 4 teams in the country

a 3 point loss in an SEC championship to Alabama after winning 29 straight games would make you think you are one of the 4 best teams... but you can not lose your way into the playoffs is what I always say.
 

AlexanderFan

Hall of Fame
Jul 23, 2004
11,222
7,750
187
Birmingham
On a more serious note, College Football Analytics influences modern day coaching decisions. Analytics attribute 15.9 expected points to two turnover differential. This is why you can attribute the 2022 NCG loss to those two interceptions.

This is all pretty well accepted and validated by actuarial studies on historical statistics. If you’re interested in understanding more about Analytics, the following website is a good introduction.
Context matters. The final interception, which resulted in six points, was thrown during the final drive. The team knew that was it, and Georgia wanted an emphatic ending. That interception sealed the deal.

Regarding your garbage drop comment, once again context matters. No one is saying to play a perfect game, but Hall dropped a sure touchdown and Billingsley dropped a long third down conversion.
 

RTR2u

Hall of Fame
Nov 30, 2013
10,532
2,826
187
Georgia
That was the point I was trying to make earlier about "if they had reviewed it." I was referring to a game stoppage when the head ref looks the play over on the monitor.

I've lost faith in them getting what's right right. While I agree the ball did move even though he had control of it, that introduces an uncertainty in the review and that's when it becomes much more subjective.

We see this happen all the time!

Since it was not "uncovered" by CBS until after the Bama TD, it does matter one way or another. There was nothing to be done other than for every UGA fan in the world to whine about it.
Bold type X 1,000,000. If Gary had never said anything this would be a non-issue. It's not an issue anyway, but whatever.
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
21,172
16,593
282
Boone, NC
There is a lot that happens in a football game and it is easy to try and point your finger at reasons for shortcomings. It is what is in everyone's nature to do after a loss.

I will say that despite the committee getting the final 4 teams correct, they opened up a huge can of worms by taking injuries into account in my opinion. Georgia had injuries everywhere, and injuries are a part of college football... but* those players would have been healthy for playoffs in 4 weeks. I am not saying that Georgia should have been in playoffs, I am using an example of the can of worms opened up by using injuries to determine team standings.

As far as the game goes from a Georgia fan, there were several things that happened, not just one.

Of course I would have liked to have seen the catch reviewed. It would have been interesting I think and could have gone either way. Why do I say this? Think about a play where a receiver catches a ball, goes to turn up field, and the ball is knocked loose. They look for a duration of control, not an instance of control, or a *football move* to have taken place. Outcome could have stayed the same, I just wanted to see it reviewed

On defense, I told those on this board that the interior defensive line was weak compared to years past... Alabama fully exploited that. I am not sure who was in charge of keeping up with Bond, but they were playing in the dirt instead of watching Bond.

On offense, a boneheaded turnover didn't help. A penalty to push a field goal back didn't help either. Alabama defense did an excellent job at adjusting after Georgia's first drive. I wish yall still had pete golding lol

Overall I am not upset as a Georgia fan. We saw two excellent programs capable of playing 4 quarters of football go at it. I am more appreciative than I am upset at going 44-2 over 3 years. Those two losses though... Alabama... Saban is still Kirbys daddy.

Also....Kirby and Bobo need to sit down and think about some things, primarily in QB. I believe the days of a pro style QB are nearly gone without elite receiver talent. A dual threat gives an OC more options and limits a DC. Georgia lost a defender or two just because they were keeping eyes on Milroe. Georgia also had to play a lot of zone, giving receivers room, all so they could keep eyes on Milroe.

National Champions
2022: Dual Threat
2021: Dual-threat
2020: pocket passer, elite receivers
2019: dual threat
2018: Dual Threat
2017: Jalen hurts, dual threat... Tua, somewhat dual threat
2016: dual threat
2015: dual threat
Good post. I've stated I'm glad the play didn't get reviewed cause I can see how the official reviewing it on the field could have gone either way with it.

But even if it got overturned, I'm not sure that means you subtract 7 and y'all win. It seems CNS was playing a conservative gameplan to exploit Georgia's weaknesses. It also seems that we could have easily scored more points with more aggressive calls on offense and if the 7 came off I suppose we would have been more aggressive going forward. Bama just had the upper hand in this game and would throttle up or down as it seems CNS chose to do. FWIW, I don't like that style, but it worked.

Do I think Georgia is probably one of the 4 best? YES. But it matters when you lose and that was the worst time to lose considering how all the other teams won with some style (except FSU).

On the points about a dual-threat QB. That's hard to dispute cause "thems the facts."

FWIW, I'm excited about our next "great one" in Julian Sayin. He's a precise, accurate pocket passer who can also run very, very well. Not like JM (who can among current players right now? Maybe Daniels?) but he's going to be a runner more the style of a Bryce Young or Tua. He can run and hurt you if need be, but he'll probably just kill you with his arm.
 
Sep 30, 2002
1,593
1,915
282
Knoxville, TN USA
I have a Alabama pen I got some years back, probably a year or two before Saban's arrival. When you click it, something different appears on the side. 12 national championships, 21 SEC Championships, and the number of bowl game appearances. I found it the other night after the SECCG and I thought, "dang....this pen is WAY outdated". It is WEIRD to see 12 national championships and 21 SEC Championships now. Those feel like such low numbers these days, even though most programs would gladly take it
This reminds me of 2015. We were in a small sports shop at a mall here in Knoxville, and my oldest son wanted me to buy him this really nice jacket that said "Alabama - 15 National Championships," or similar (I honestly lost track as to our number). I declined, and told me that we just might be adding another one. Sure enough, we did that year.

I mean, who wants to buy clothing that'll just be outdated by the next year? And yes, it's an AWESOME "problem" to have.

I made this a few years ago, and it still applies!

1701958126843.png
 

The Ols

Hall of Fame
Jul 8, 2012
5,146
5,779
187
Cumming,Ga.
I read somewhere that if beating Georgia was good enough on a resume to go from 8th to 4th, then Georgia was one of the best 4 teams in the country

a 3 point loss in an SEC championship to Alabama after winning 29 straight games would make you think you are one of the 4 best teams... but you can not lose your way into the playoffs is what I always say.
Unless you’re TCU…
 

colbysullivan

Hall of Fame
Dec 12, 2007
16,820
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Gulf Breeze, FL
There is a lot that happens in a football game and it is easy to try and point your finger at reasons for shortcomings. It is what is in everyone's nature to do after a loss.

I will say that despite the committee getting the final 4 teams correct, they opened up a huge can of worms by taking injuries into account in my opinion. Georgia had injuries everywhere, and injuries are a part of college football... but* those players would have been healthy for playoffs in 4 weeks. I am not saying that Georgia should have been in playoffs, I am using an example of the can of worms opened up by using injuries to determine team standings.

As far as the game goes from a Georgia fan, there were several things that happened, not just one.

Of course I would have liked to have seen the catch reviewed. It would have been interesting I think and could have gone either way. Why do I say this? Think about a play where a receiver catches a ball, goes to turn up field, and the ball is knocked loose. They look for a duration of control, not an instance of control, or a *football move* to have taken place. Outcome could have stayed the same, I just wanted to see it reviewed

On defense, I told those on this board that the interior defensive line was weak compared to years past... Alabama fully exploited that. I am not sure who was in charge of keeping up with Bond, but they were playing in the dirt instead of watching Bond.

On offense, a boneheaded turnover didn't help. A penalty to push a field goal back didn't help either. Alabama defense did an excellent job at adjusting after Georgia's first drive. I wish yall still had pete golding lol

Overall I am not upset as a Georgia fan. We saw two excellent programs capable of playing 4 quarters of football go at it. I am more appreciative than I am upset at going 44-2 over 3 years. Those two losses though... Alabama... Saban is still Kirbys daddy.

Also....Kirby and Bobo need to sit down and think about some things, primarily in QB. I believe the days of a pro style QB are nearly gone without elite receiver talent. A dual threat gives an OC more options and limits a DC. Georgia lost a defender or two just because they were keeping eyes on Milroe. Georgia also had to play a lot of zone, giving receivers room, all so they could keep eyes on Milroe.

National Champions
2022: Dual Threat
2021: Dual-threat
2020: pocket passer, elite receivers
2019: dual threat
2018: Dual Threat
2017: Jalen hurts, dual threat... Tua, somewhat dual threat
2016: dual threat
2015: dual threat
Ok so we’re seriously gonna sit here and call Stetson Bennett, Joe Burrow, and Jake Coker “dual threat” QBs?
 

MikeInBama

1st Team
Sep 11, 2021
724
1,042
167
Prattvegas
I read somewhere that if beating Georgia was good enough on a resume to go from 8th to 4th, then Georgia was one of the best 4 teams in the country

a 3 point loss in an SEC championship to Alabama after winning 29 straight games would make you think you are one of the 4 best teams... but you can not lose your way into the playoffs is what I always say.
Had Iowa upset Michigan, Louisville upset Florida State top 8 would have looked like this:
Washington 13-0
Alabama 12-1
Texas 12-1
Georgia 12-1
Michigan 12-1
Ohio State 12-1
Florida State 12-1
Oregon 11-2

You can lose the final game and get in(TCU 2022 and Bama 2017) if and only if chaos happens elsewhere.
 

DawgAlum2054

1st Team
Dec 20, 2018
921
1,674
167
Ok so we’re seriously gonna sit here and call Stetson Bennett, Joe Burrow, and Jake Coker “dual threat” QBs?
Stetson had 10 rushing touchdowns last year, I consider that dual threat

Yes, I consider Joe Burrow a dual threat, not to the extent of others... but the man could easily pick up first downs with his legs

I thought it was someone else in 2015.. so no on Jake Coker
 

landonew

Suspended
Nov 21, 2023
299
382
72
Context matters. The final interception, which resulted in six points, was thrown during the final drive. The team knew that was it, and Georgia wanted an emphatic ending. That interception sealed the deal.

Regarding your garbage drop comment, once again context matters. No one is saying to play a perfect game, but Hall dropped a sure touchdown and Billingsley dropped a long third down conversion.
So, anytime you lose it’s possible to point to discrete instances where a player failed to execute. From a coaching perspective, you do everything you can to put your players in the best position to execute effectively.

Let’s look at “Hall dropped a long third down conversion” as an example. What could CNS have done to help Hall execute better? Not much. Even the most talented and best prepared WRs are going to drop passes, and occasionally a dropped pass is going to occur in a critical situation.

Rather than focusing on how to avoid dropped passes, Analytics would suggest that you can improve the fundamental game plan so there are fewer “critical” catches that must be made to win the game. And that’s what CNS is doing with this team.

The strategy is to run clock with a two score lead to reduce the number of possessions the opposing team gets. If they have fewer possessions they score fewer points. Also, rushing on first and second downs on average make the 3rd downs more manageable . 3rd and long is typically the result of incomplete passes, penalties (holding penalties almost always occur on passing downs), and sacks.

To summarize, Analytics can help your players execute down the stretch by avoiding 3rd and longs and taking the air out of the game so there are fewer “critical” moments where they must execute to win the game.
 

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