Barack Obama's Tuesday speech was obviously meant to appeal to his core left-wing base in an effort to reassure them in his effort to defeat Hillary. This is just my humble opinion, but I think Obama may have done more than enough to make sure he stays on-track to maintain the advantage in the race for the Dem nomination.
It's now becoming clear that Hillary is not the person who stands to gain from this whole brouhaha. She's already been accused by fellow Dems of recklessly playing the race card at a previous point in the race. There's just no way that she'll gain ground with left-wing voters by playing the race card wildly from here on out. She may well win Pennsylvania by a decent margin but everyone knows that a Pennsylvania victory would, at best, be a momentum-builder for her and not a clincher. When you take a hard look at the long-term prospects for the Dem race it still appears to be one where Obama is in a damn-good position to maintain his delegate lead right up to the convention. Hillary's best hope for the nomination still seems to lie in the long-shot of convincing Dem superdelegates to switch to her side by way of some back-room deal. Wright or no Wright, there is nothing about this scandal which will convince hardcore Democratic voters to switch from Obama to Hillary.
I think it's very fair to say that for all the national news hype of this story it's done very little to convince left-wing Dems to completely abandon Obama and go all-out for Hillary. No matter how many times this tale gets played on the evening news, I don't see it leading to any kind of big shift in the race for the Dem nomination. Maybe Hillary really can pull off some back-room deal to win at the convention but I can't imagine how she would do it by going full-bore to play the race card WITH DEMOCRATS. From a Democratic Party perspective, that just doesn't make sense. I think we're left with the probability that Obama is still the Dem favorite here and Hillary is still the underdog whose chances are less than favorable.
OK, let's assume that Obama weathers this storm well enough to beat Hillary. That still leaves us with the question of how he'll do in a head-to-head matchup with McCain. I still find it hard to believe that Rev. Wright would tip the general election to McCain.
McCain has never been a race-baiter. This isn't his turf. He's always been a guy who's made his name on national security and government spending matters. He's never played any race cards at any point in his political life. Do you REALLY expect to see a head-to-head matchup between Obama and McCain where McCain plays the race card willy-nilly throughout the summer and fall??? Is he going to spend his most important campaigning days talking about Rev. Wright? That would seem to be an incredible risk on his part. This isn't where John McCain comes from. I have a hard time believing that he'll stump on this issue. It just isn't what John McCain is.
This leads back to my thread title. Has Obama really been harmed by Rev. Wright? I honestly think it could all blow over and become a near-nothing issue by fall. Keep in mind that we're still more than 7 months away from the general election. I do think this flap will continue to haunt Obama in its own way and it will probably never disappear from his radar, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that a nation confronting so MANY important issues OTHER than race will suddenly decide to choose its President based on old racial comments from a sermon in 1990.
I don't see this as a winning issue for Hillary and I don't see it as a winning issue for McCain. This recent flap has gotten so hot so fast that I don't think many people have taken a moment to think about how much it will really matter 7+ months from now when the general election finally comes around.
Will the 2008 election be tipped by old-style racial comments? I have an awfully hard time believing it. There are just too many other critically-important issues out there right now.
It's now becoming clear that Hillary is not the person who stands to gain from this whole brouhaha. She's already been accused by fellow Dems of recklessly playing the race card at a previous point in the race. There's just no way that she'll gain ground with left-wing voters by playing the race card wildly from here on out. She may well win Pennsylvania by a decent margin but everyone knows that a Pennsylvania victory would, at best, be a momentum-builder for her and not a clincher. When you take a hard look at the long-term prospects for the Dem race it still appears to be one where Obama is in a damn-good position to maintain his delegate lead right up to the convention. Hillary's best hope for the nomination still seems to lie in the long-shot of convincing Dem superdelegates to switch to her side by way of some back-room deal. Wright or no Wright, there is nothing about this scandal which will convince hardcore Democratic voters to switch from Obama to Hillary.
I think it's very fair to say that for all the national news hype of this story it's done very little to convince left-wing Dems to completely abandon Obama and go all-out for Hillary. No matter how many times this tale gets played on the evening news, I don't see it leading to any kind of big shift in the race for the Dem nomination. Maybe Hillary really can pull off some back-room deal to win at the convention but I can't imagine how she would do it by going full-bore to play the race card WITH DEMOCRATS. From a Democratic Party perspective, that just doesn't make sense. I think we're left with the probability that Obama is still the Dem favorite here and Hillary is still the underdog whose chances are less than favorable.
OK, let's assume that Obama weathers this storm well enough to beat Hillary. That still leaves us with the question of how he'll do in a head-to-head matchup with McCain. I still find it hard to believe that Rev. Wright would tip the general election to McCain.
McCain has never been a race-baiter. This isn't his turf. He's always been a guy who's made his name on national security and government spending matters. He's never played any race cards at any point in his political life. Do you REALLY expect to see a head-to-head matchup between Obama and McCain where McCain plays the race card willy-nilly throughout the summer and fall??? Is he going to spend his most important campaigning days talking about Rev. Wright? That would seem to be an incredible risk on his part. This isn't where John McCain comes from. I have a hard time believing that he'll stump on this issue. It just isn't what John McCain is.
This leads back to my thread title. Has Obama really been harmed by Rev. Wright? I honestly think it could all blow over and become a near-nothing issue by fall. Keep in mind that we're still more than 7 months away from the general election. I do think this flap will continue to haunt Obama in its own way and it will probably never disappear from his radar, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that a nation confronting so MANY important issues OTHER than race will suddenly decide to choose its President based on old racial comments from a sermon in 1990.
I don't see this as a winning issue for Hillary and I don't see it as a winning issue for McCain. This recent flap has gotten so hot so fast that I don't think many people have taken a moment to think about how much it will really matter 7+ months from now when the general election finally comes around.
Will the 2008 election be tipped by old-style racial comments? I have an awfully hard time believing it. There are just too many other critically-important issues out there right now.
