2016 Election - Trump: How Did Trump Really Win the Presidency?

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Catfish

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

with his thin skin, i don't think its necessarily a long-shot bet. we are about to see several months of lots of people trolling the crap out of trump daily. he's like a spoiled 12 year old. he can't let even minor insults go un-anwered. that has to take a toll.
People with tiny, baby, infant hands are like that. :wink:
 

81usaf92

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

with his thin skin, i don't think its necessarily a long-shot bet. we are about to see several months of lots of people trolling the crap out of trump daily. he's like a spoiled 12 year old. he can't let even minor insults go un-anwered. that has to take a toll.
If Trump is going to lose it is going to be because the Electoral College says No or his negatives nationally, but I don't think the media trolling will have any effect on him. Heck the Young Turks,CNN, MSNBC, SNL, and Conservative talk radio has been relentless on dogging him, and what has that done??? Answer: Nothing.
 
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CharminTide

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

If Trump is going to lose it is going to be because the Electoral College says No or his negatives nationally, but I think suggesting the media trolling will have any effect on him. Heck the Young Turks,CNN, MSNBC, SNL, and Conservative talk radio has been relentless on dogging him, and what has that done??? Answer: Nothing.
I'm pretty sure I saw him stand on national television and, unprompted, defend the size of his hands and penis simply because Jon Oliver made fun of him for 30 seconds.
 

BamaJama17

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

If Trump is going to lose it is going to be because the Electoral College says No or his negatives nationally, but I think suggesting the media trolling will have any effect on him. Heck the Young Turks,CNN, MSNBC, SNL, and Conservative talk radio has been relentless on dogging him, and what has that done??? Answer: Nothing.
And yet he continues to get way more support than McCain or Romney ever had. Also it doesn't matter what the media, celebrities, politicians, or radio/YouTube stations think. They are all a minority. It is the people who decide.
 

81usaf92

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

i guess it is possible that he could completely come apart at the seams before the convention
That's what lots of folks have hoped would happen since he started his campaign.
with his thin skin, i don't think its necessarily a long-shot bet. we are about to see several months of lots of people trolling the crap out of trump daily. he's like a spoiled 12 year old. he can't let even minor insults go un-anwered. that has to take a toll.
I'm pretty sure I saw him stand on national television and, unprompted, defend the size of his hands and penis simply because Jon Oliver made fun of him for 30 seconds.
Ok, people act like the democrats and the liberal media are finally going to put an end to Trump. How do you figure when Conservative talk show personalities and far left news outlets have been on him from the start. My argument isn't that the man has thin skin, my argument is what exactly are yall expecting from the more controlled liberal outlets that you didn't get from the far right and far left ones? For any other candidate, 1/4 of what those news and entertainment outlets have exposed about Trump since October would've made that candidate DOA come primary season. All these "exposure" stories are doing is giving him free advertisement, which is about 60% of the reason he is going to win the nomination. He isn't going to lose the general because some new story The New York Times, Washington Post, or the Boston Globe digs up. He is going to lose because of his overwhelming negatives and the division amongst the Republican Party.
 

BamaJama17

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Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

Ok, people act like the democrats and the liberal media are finally going to put an end to Trump. How do you figure when Conservative talk show personalities and far left news outlets have been on him from the start. My argument isn't that the man has thin skin, my argument is what exactly are yall expecting from the more controlled liberal outlets that you didn't get from the far right and far left ones? For any other candidate, 1/4 of what those news and entertainment outlets have exposed about Trump since October would've made that candidate DOA come primary season. All these "exposure" stories are doing is giving him free advertisement, which is about 60% of the reason he is going to win the nomination. He isn't going to lose the general because some new story The New York Times, Washington Post, or the Boston Globe digs up. He is going to lose because of his overwhelming negatives and the division amongst the Republican Party.
As I said above, it doesn't matter what any current republican politician thinks about him. They are a minority. He has the support of the people who are the majority. When he becomes president, he will either remove those who he can and the rest can get voted out. The Republican Party has been in desperate need of being purged and he is the exact one to do so. Also he is not going to lose the general election.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Re: Neither Bush will endorse Trump

Well I know I'm not going to vote for a criminal or a communist. I personally admire Trump's political incorrectness.
I'm FINE with his political incorrectness - but there's a major difference in that and being downright shock jock for the sake of being shock jock, too. I'd have more respect if he'd pull a Jesse Ventura beyond 2-3 repetitive issues and say (in essence), "I'm not certain of all the ramifications involved in that decision, but I can tell you I'll seek the best counsel I can and make the best decision for the country as a whole without concern for the political correctness of the decision."

Ross Perot, the micro-manager, was politically incorrect in a lot of ways that people forget all these years later. Here's a guy who came right out and said he would NOT hire gay people or adulterers for his administration (can you even imagine someone doing this nowadays? OK, Ted Cruz....). Perot said right up front he was going to raise taxes and cut spending, including cherished programs. He turned nearly every question back to an economics question on the federal budget deficit far better than Trump has.

I'm not arguing that Perot was NOT quite a crackpot - he was. But I sure don't recall him getting involved in juvenile discussions of who had the biggest stones or flat out insulting the candidates (and you don't think in the early stages of the 92 campaign that Clinton's personal life and draft dodging didn't offer easy targets?) and their wives and everyone else involved. Even when he complained about media coverage, he was far more politically astute (publicly) than Trump ever dreamed of being.

Maybe that's because Perot (unlike Trump) wasn't born to wealth and had served in the Navy (unlike Trump) and built his business from ground up (unlike Trump) and sent that rescue mission (whatever the details) for his employees.......Perot probably didn't feel the need for such public boasting (and I also don't recall Perot filing business bankruptcies four times, either).

Let's consider the difference in behavior: a few days before he quit the race, Perot addressed the NAACP and said the following:

"it's going to be a long, hot summer. Now I don't have to tell you who gets hurt first when this sort of thing happens, do I? You people do. Your people do. I know that. You know that.......Now good, decent people all over this country, and particularly your folks, have got bars on the windows and bars on the doors, and they're sitting up at night with a shotgun across their knees."

The phrase "you people" flew all over media of 1992. And Perot made these remarks on a Saturday, ensuring they were THE lead talked about story heading into the Democratic Convention that began on Monday.

How did Perot handle this? We can argue the verbiage, but he gave one of those 'if I offended anybody in any way I certainly apologize' mea culpas.

Can anyone even begin to imagine Trump actually doing something like that? I get the idea he'd say, "Look.....I love black people. I've had a lot of black people work for me, and they really have a lot of soul, y'know? Great music, too. I listen to hip hop on my into work every morning. But the press again is trying to make something out of nothing. You know, I've given more black people good paying jobs than the press services criticizing me combined!!! So I love black people - so much that I'm going to come out in black face tomorrow just to show my appreciation for their contribution to society."

And millions would go, "YEAH!!! See, he ain't no racist, he listens to hip hop!!"
 

selmaborntidefan

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

I believe most of y'all know I'm not a Trump supporter. He's a buffoon. Nevertheless, here's an interesting op-ed about Trump voters. The author posits that Trump voters are not so irrational for supporting him.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-voters-not-so-irrational-1462572038
I don't think we can draw the inference that every Trump voter is irrational.

But the KINDS of defenses of the guy I've seen on Facebook from normally rational people absolutely boggle my mind.

I'll tell you what - if Trump manages to win (and given the divided party he's leading, it's going to be damned near impossible), literally everything ever written on political science and political tactics will need to be burned. Trump is leading a Goldwater-style suicide mission using the undiluted rhetoric of George Wallace (even Wallace by 1968 knew better than to be as overt as Trump has been).

The last time a divided party actually won the White House was 1948 - and that was at a time when about 3/5 of the nation identified as Democrats. The GOP of 1964, 1976, and 1992 all went down to defeat, the latter two in elections that if they had been unified would have given them a chance (and probably a win in 1976); the Democrats did the same thing in 1968, 1972, and 1980. The circumstances don't favor Trump pulling a Harry Truman (who, in addition to the voting advantage was an incumbent who could throw legislation at the GOP Congress he was attacking - and then attack them for not passing it).

Again - it is only because Hillary's negatives are ALSO so high that Trump even has a maybe 1 in 100,000 chance of winning. There are about as many Democrats holding their noses as Republicans - in fact, if Scalia had not died, I suspect there would be even more Democrats staying home.
 

BamaJama17

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Re: Neither Bush will endorse Trump

I'm FINE with his political incorrectness - but there's a major difference in that and being downright shock jock for the sake of being shock jock, too. I'd have more respect if he'd pull a Jesse Ventura beyond 2-3 repetitive issues and say (in essence), "I'm not certain of all the ramifications involved in that decision, but I can tell you I'll seek the best counsel I can and make the best decision for the country as a whole without concern for the political correctness of the decision."

Ross Perot, the micro-manager, was politically incorrect in a lot of ways that people forget all these years later. Here's a guy who came right out and said he would NOT hire gay people or adulterers for his administration (can you even imagine someone doing this nowadays? OK, Ted Cruz....). Perot said right up front he was going to raise taxes and cut spending, including cherished programs. He turned nearly every question back to an economics question on the federal budget deficit far better than Trump has.

I'm not arguing that Perot was NOT quite a crackpot - he was. But I sure don't recall him getting involved in juvenile discussions of who had the biggest stones or flat out insulting the candidates (and you don't think in the early stages of the 92 campaign that Clinton's personal life and draft dodging didn't offer easy targets?) and their wives and everyone else involved. Even when he complained about media coverage, he was far more politically astute (publicly) than Trump ever dreamed of being.

Maybe that's because Perot (unlike Trump) wasn't born to wealth and had served in the Navy (unlike Trump) and built his business from ground up (unlike Trump) and sent that rescue mission (whatever the details) for his employees.......Perot probably didn't feel the need for such public boasting (and I also don't recall Perot filing business bankruptcies four times, either).

Let's consider the difference in behavior: a few days before he quit the race, Perot addressed the NAACP and said the following:

"it's going to be a long, hot summer. Now I don't have to tell you who gets hurt first when this sort of thing happens, do I? You people do. Your people do. I know that. You know that.......Now good, decent people all over this country, and particularly your folks, have got bars on the windows and bars on the doors, and they're sitting up at night with a shotgun across their knees."

The phrase "you people" flew all over media of 1992. And Perot made these remarks on a Saturday, ensuring they were THE lead talked about story heading into the Democratic Convention that began on Monday.

How did Perot handle this? We can argue the verbiage, but he gave one of those 'if I offended anybody in any way I certainly apologize' mea culpas.

Can anyone even begin to imagine Trump actually doing something like that? I get the idea he'd say, "Look.....I love black people. I've had a lot of black people work for me, and they really have a lot of soul, y'know? Great music, too. I listen to hip hop on my into work every morning. But the press again is trying to make something out of nothing. You know, I've given more black people good paying jobs than the press services criticizing me combined!!! So I love black people - so much that I'm going to come out in black face tomorrow just to show my appreciation for their contribution to society."

And millions would go, "YEAH!!! See, he ain't no racist, he listens to hip hop!!"
Yeah well perhaps it's that Trump has learned from those mistakes or that he is not running as a 3rd party candidate... Yeah sure Trump had an inheritance but he could have jus a as easily lost everything but he didn't. He expanded and has made even more money since then.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

As I said above, it doesn't matter what any current republican politician thinks about him. They are a minority. He has the support of the people who are the majority. When he becomes president, he will either remove those who he can and the rest can get voted out. The Republican Party has been in desperate need of being purged and he is the exact one to do so. Also he is not going to lose the general election.
Uh, the Republican Party has purging itself of 'people not conservative enough' for the last several years. Also - even assuming this wildest fantasy of yours........how long do you really think it will take the entire electorate to turn on him? Carter, Clinton, and Obama all entered with the nation ready to embrace them - and all of them quickly imploded their support IN THEIR OWN ranks (Carter became the first Democratic President in 30 years to have a veto overridden by his own party). Reagan got an extended honeymoon because of the assassination attempt (indeed - two days before he was shot, Reagan joked a the Gridiron Dinner - tweaking conservatives already whining and he had only been President for about ten weeks - "sometimes our right hand doesn't know what our far right hand is doing") and Bush was upsetting conservatives when 9/11 suddenly altered reality.

Strangely enough.......Bush 41 is the ONE GUY who got through his FIRST year with heavy support, and even then the Far Right got upset at him for conducting dialogue with China in the wake of Tiannemen Square and not getting John Tower confirmed as Defense Secretary. At the end of his first year, Bush had a 79% approval rating - the highest EVER in a Gallup Poll at the end of one's first year. He had an approval rating of 66% with Democrats and 74% with blacks, numbers unheard of for a GOP President (barring something like 9/11).

He's also the one guy we've had since Carter who lost re-election fwiw.

My point? As Richard Nixon astutely noted, you only really get to be President for one year. The second year, Congress abandons you because they're up for re-election. The third year is full of stories about how you're probably going to get beat just as soon as the opposition chooses their nominee - and the fourth year is the re-election campaign.

Bill Clinton had 57 Senate seats and the House - and had to scrape for every single vote just to pass a budget by ONE vote. Obama had basically a filibuster-proof Senate (undone by Ted Kennedy's death) and the House - and had to scrape to pass Obamacare just barely in March 2010.

The irony is that the only reason we even really 'need' a President is because of foreign policy - and yet they are always voted into office on the basis of DOMESTIC policy.

I don't see Trump trumping history, even if the improbable happens.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Re: Neither Bush will endorse Trump

Yeah well perhaps it's that Trump has learned from those mistakes or that he is not running as a 3rd party candidate... Yeah sure Trump had an inheritance but he could have jus a as easily lost everything but he didn't. He expanded and has made even more money since then.
Most of his fans (his terminology - odd to hear in national politics) are blinded by his claims of money (with no audited statements and no tax returns disclosed, no one knows, really). People who've dug into how he made it, not so much...
 

81usaf92

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

As I said above, it doesn't matter what any current republican politician thinks about him. They are a minority. He has the support of the people who are the majority. When he becomes president, he will either remove those who he can and the rest can get voted out. The Republican Party has been in desperate need of being purged and he is the exact one to do so. Also he is not going to lose the general election.
I think we are arguing two different things. I am neither predicting a winner nor talking about the demographics of Trump supporters. 92 made a statement that I took that he believed that when Trump is one on one with Hillary then the media is just going to all of the sudden pour it on him. My point was what more can they do when The Republicans and the far left have already done so? Is the New York Times going to reveal his true feelings about Mexicans? Is SNL going to take Darryl Hammond's portrayal of him further? There is nothing that the democrat establishment can expose that hasn't been exposed already, and plus it is just about pointless because people have already made up their mind at this point.


Also I agree that the party really needed this.
 
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Bama Reb

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

I think we are arguing two different things. I am neither predicting a winner nor talking about the demographics of Trump supporters. 92 made a statement that I took that he believed that when Trump is one on one with Hillary then the media is just going to all of the sudden pour it on him. My point was what more can they do when The Republicans and the far left have already done so? Is the New York Times going to reveal his true feelings about Mexicans? Is SNL going to take Darryl Hammond's portrayal of him further? There is nothing that the democrat establishment can expose that hasn't been exposed already, and plus it is just about pointless because people have already made up their mind at this point.


Also I agree that the party really needed this.
If they know what's good for the party, they'll unify around him, not continue trying to tear him down. To do otherwise could very easily cause the final destruction of the entire Rep party. Then where would they be?
 

TIDE-HSV

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

I think we are arguing two different things. I am neither predicting a winner nor talking about the demographics of Trump supporters. 92 made a statement that I took that he believed that when Trump is one on one with Hillary then the media is just going to all of the sudden pour it on him. My point was what more can they do when The Republicans and the far left have already done so? Is the New York Times going to reveal his true feelings about Mexicans? Is SNL going to take Darryl Hammond's portrayal of him further? There is nothing that the democrat establishment can expose that hasn't been exposed already, and plus it is just about pointless because people have already made up their mind at this point.


Also I agree that the party really needed this.
I think you're missing the difference between a race for the nomination and the general. What any media can do is remind and incite more people who simply can't stand the thought of a President Trump to get out and vote. Totally different dynamics in a general election...
 

Bazza

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Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?

No one can predict how any candidate will do once elected to POTUS.

You can say you like this candidate....or that one. Or you don't like this one...or that one. Sure....you can state your opinion.....but no way can you predict with accuracy how things will go.

Comes down to a personality contest for many voters the way I see it.

It is what it is.....
 
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