I've been thinking about 2024 and considering some possibilities that seem unlikely, but you never know. Let's start with the assumption that Biden is out. This is reasonable all things considered. So what if the next election had not one, but two flips for VP? Would Newsom take a hard look at Liz Cheney? It makes sense. That is a Lincoln Project dream ticket (I think.)
I seriously doubt Gavin Newsom would win a Democratic primary, but I'll play along and show you further why this is a disaster at every level.
Let's suppose Newsom is drunk and carrying on with an underage cheerleader the night he clears the threshold for nomination and is presented with Liz Cheney. WHY.....would he pick Liz Cheney?
1) She has no relevant foreign policy experience to cover the gaps in his resume.
2) She's not even a guarantee to carry Wyoming on a Democratic ticket
3) The liberal interest groups that largely influence the primary vote will lose their collective intestines.
Because imagine this scenario.
It's 2026, and the GOP owns the Senate. Barely, but they've got it. Clarence Thomas is legit impeached for conflict of interest on 1/6. And this occurs AFTER Newsom has a heart attack with the underage cheerleader and assumes room temperature, and Cheney is now the President. She's STILL a conservative in principle. (Her position on these hearings and Trump are, in fact, based on her conservative principles at a time too many others are being way too pragmatic for my blood).
McConnell sees a chance to replace the now 75-year old Thomas with a 40-year old judge, so he gets the GOP to go along on throwing Thomas out of office. Cheney replaces Thomas with the judge about half his age, and all of a sudden Alito and Roberts decide they want to
spend more time with their children coach Ohio State in football. Cheney signs off on two more young judges, two rated qualified by the ABA, which she tries to bring back. You suddenly have SIX YOUNG conservative judges, which means you can lose one of your justices and still get your way.
You think the nominating wing of the Democratic Party isn't going to reherase that nightmare scenario in their heads, especially in a post-RBG world?
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I think myself an old-fashioned American. I WANT to believe in our processes, I accept we are a proud and flawed nation that at times takes too long to get around to some things maybe we should do earlier. I'm a firm believer in divided government as a safeguard against tyranny - and yeah, maybe I look at it differently because I DID live in Germany during the Cold War (less than 40 years from the end of WW2). If you were to ask me personally what I think is probably my own personal favorite type setup, it would be the first six years of the Reagan Presidency (GOP President to the right who understands he has to move to the middle on some things, a solidly Democratic House, and a barely GOP Senate) or the late Clinton years minus the Lewinsky scandal. (Yes, I said it). We need it so there HAS to be some give-and-take. And a court that moves almost like a person driving a car, slight move to the right, slight move to the left, nothing extreme in either direction. As GHW Bush said about Souter, "If I disagree with how he rules on something, so be it."
But that REQUIRES a valid two-party system. And right now, we don't have one, at least beyond theory. I chuckle at the charge "the Republicans only care about power" as if the Democrats don't. However, the Democrats at least are trying to do this. Yes, it's messy - because a functioning democracy IS a messy thing. I disagree with a lot of the things they do, but they're at least TRYING to have some elections with some level of substance.
The GOP, on the other hand, is burning to the ground the very things they once professed and even practiced (such as when they informed Nixon there were enough Republicans to remove him from office). As Rick Wilson and George Will (conservatives both) have said, "The Republican Party is the only group of people in America afraid of their own voters." They remind me of the Jack Warden character (Big Ben Healy) in the first Problem Child movie, where he poses as this "America for the Americans" candidate for mayor and is then caught on tape saying he'd sell his soul to the Japanese if they made him an offer.
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The larger point?
Liz Cheney adds zero to a Democratic ticket.
Not one vote.
Not one state.
And Newsom would spend the rest of the race trying to explain how having her as his successor is a good thing.
And her downside among the liberals, I mean, who could blame them from setting themselves on fire in the streets if Cheney got picked?
And finally...the current VP is a former California Senator, which makes bypassing her for a white male governor a pretty suicidal venture in the first place. If you really wanna depress the black turnout for the Democrats, just replace a black female former VP with a white guy whose running mate is a Republican. You'd have to explain not only why he's ahead of her but also why Cheney moved in line ahead of her.
I honestly know you mean well, but this has "we are trying to lose the election" written all over it.
