How Xi and Putin’s new friendship could test the US

[crimsonaudio]

This alliance would not be good for the US.

The entire visit has been refracted through a prism of both nations’ mutual antagonism toward the United States. And at every step, Washington, watching hawkishly from the sidelines, poured scorn on the idea of China as a peacemaker in Ukraine, accusing Xi of offering diplomatic cover to a thuggish Russian leader who was just cited for war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

But whether China and Russia have truly forged the kind of united anti-US front long dreaded by Washington’s foreign policy professionals seems doubtful.

Still, the United States clearly now has a serious foreign policy challenge on its hands. The US is simultaneously gearing up for what many experts warn could become a Cold War with China and waging a proxy fight in Ukraine with its foe in the 20th century’s version of that showdown. And China and Russia, together, have more capacity to frustrate American goals in Ukraine and elsewhere.

How Xi and Putin’s new friendship could test the US

 

[dtgreg]

We live during interesting times. I wonder if China will make "territorial demands" of the Russian Empire? You know, the West has always had a stake in keeping the Russian Empire a "thing". If they were to split up, you'd have umpteen islamic countries with Nuclear weapons. I know China has been really anti-Muslim (although, to be fair, they seem to be anti-anything-that-isn't Han-Chinese). The permutations of all this China expansion into the void created by the fall of the Soviets and the rise of China as an economomic power is fascinating.

 

[Its On A Slab]

What separates the current times with the Cold War is the fact that China's economy is intensely connected to the US and Western economies. All the "Made In China" stuff we buy, and they sell.

I will never say never, but I can imagine China going to war with us.

 

[Go Bama]

HCR has an interesting take on this alliance in her letter today. John Kirby, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, says it's a marriage of convenience. China gets a military counterbalance for the west, and Russia gets aid for their war.

The China/Russia alliance is about the first third of the letter and is worth a read.

So, for all the chop in the water about the former president facing indictments, the story that really seems uppermost to me today is the visit China’s president Xi Jinping made today to Moscow for a meeting with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.

National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told reporters today that China and Russia would both like “to see the rest of the world play by their rules rather than the ones that…are enshrined in the U.N. Charter and what everybody else is…following.” Kirby said the White House sees the relationship of Xi and Putin as a “marriage of convenience.” He explained:

“In President Putin and Russia, President Xi sees a counterweight to American influence and NATO influence certainly on the continent and elsewhere around the world. In President Xi, President Putin sees a potential backer.” Putin needs Xi’s support because of his misadventure in Ukraine. There, Kirby said, Putin is “blowing through inventory. He’s blowing through manpower. His military is getting embarrassed constantly. They’ve lost greater than 50 percent of the territory that they took in the first few months of this war. He needs help from President Xi, and that’s what this visit was all about.”

“Now,” he added, “whether it results in anything, we’ll see.”

When a reporter asked Kirby if Xi would provide lethal aid to Russia, Kirby answered, “We don’t think that China is taking it off the table, but they haven’t moved in that direction. We’ve seen no indication that they’re about to or — or fixing to provide lethal weapons.”

The Institute for the Study of War concluded that the outcome of the meeting was likely less than Putin wanted. It noted that Putin represented the meeting as showing the two countries working together against an adversarial West, while Xi only said the two countries were working together. This is a significant step down from the stance China took before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in which it declared it had a “no limits partnership” with Russia, suggesting China is not inclined to give Russia all the support it needs for that war.

Putin has been trying to rally states in Africa to his cause and likely hoped Xi would help that effort, but he did not.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia put out a statement deepening their cooperation, but Sam Greene, Director for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London, noted that the economic benefits of the statement all flowed from Russia to China, including Russia’s announcement that it will use yuan for foreign transactions with Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

“This summit…brings home exactly how much Putin has lost,” Greene wrote. “Prior to the war—even after 2014—Putin occupied a position of strategic maneuverability. He could arbitrage between east and west, reaping windfalls for his regime along the way. That’s all gone now. Putin tells his people he's fighting for Russia's sovereignty. In truth, he’s mortgaged the Kremlin to Beijing.”

 

[CrimsonJazz]

This is a fascinating development. I'm glad this topic got its own thread rather than being incorporated into the "Russia invades Ukraine" thread. There are a ton of implications here that can affect everything from the economy to the 2024 elections.

 

[dtgreg]

What separates the current times with the Cold War is the fact that China's economy is intensely connected to the US and Western economies. All the "Made In China" stuff we buy, and they sell.

I will never say never, but I can imagine China going to war with us.

You meant "can not", correct?

 

[crimsonaudio]

What separates the current times with the Cold War is the fact that China's economy is intensely connected to the US and Western economies. All the "Made In China" stuff we buy, and they sell.

I will never say never, but I can imagine China going to war with us.

Desperation can encourage a lot of things that are otherwise unthinkable - once the Chinese population decline really kicks in we'll see what they're really made of.

 

[Tidewater]

China sees Russia as the junior partner in the relationship.
Russia bristles at the implications. I cannot imagine this relationship being enduring.
Then again, Churchill enthusiastically embraced Joe Stalin in 1941, and rode him all the way to victory.

 

[Bazza]

 

[JDCrimson]

We should take it serious but not be intimidated by it. Russia, China, and NKR are going nowhere economically fast. The decoupling of commerce will hirt them worse than it hurts the rest of the democracy supporting world. When the hunger comes and it is coming they will be done.

Desperation can encourage a lot of things that are otherwise unthinkable - once the Chinese population decline really kicks in we'll see what they're really made of.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

I ain't afraid of China. Besides, they ain't played nobody, PAWWWWWL.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

What separates the current times with the Cold War is the fact that China's economy is intensely connected to the US and Western economies. All the "Made In China" stuff we buy, and they sell.

I will never say never, but I can imagine China going to war with us.

Desperation can encourage a lot of things that are otherwise unthinkable - once the Chinese population decline really kicks in we'll see what they're really made of.

I do take some comfort in the degree to which China's economy depends on us. Xi hates us, but he needs us more than he hates us...at least at the moment.

Which is why I also worry about desperate illogical acts by anyone with nothing left to lose. China may be doomed. But like a mortally wounded guy hopped up on PCP, they can do a ton of damage after they're shot, but before they finally die.

War against us wouldn't make logical sense. But logic may not enter into the decision. The only thing we can do is gather the best intelligence we can (which might or might not be all that good) and be prepared in case they do something crazy.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Which is why I also worry about desperate illogical acts by anyone with nothing left to lose. China may be doomed. But like a mortally wounded guy hopped up on PCP, they can do a ton of damage after they're shot, but before they finally die.

This is my primary concern. Both Russia and China are in population declines, both are going to get more and more desperate as time goes on.

Desperation breeds crazy decisions.

 

[Its On A Slab]

I do take some comfort in the degree to which China's economy depends on us. Xi hates us, but he needs us more than he hates us...at least at the moment.

Which is why I also worry about desperate illogical acts by anyone with nothing left to lose. China may be doomed. But like a mortally wounded guy hopped up on PCP, they can do a ton of damage after they're shot, but before they finally die.

War against us wouldn't make logical sense. But logic may not enter into the decision. The only thing we can do is gather the best intelligence we can (which might or might not be all that good) and be prepared in case they do something crazy.

I would bet that Xi is a pragmatist, and realizes the stupidity of an open war with the West/US.

Putin (on the other hand) is an erratic foe. He and the N Korean dictator could be twins.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I would bet that Xi is a pragmatist, and realizes the stupidity of an open war with the West/US.

Putin (on the other hand) is an erratic foe. He and the N Korean dictator could be twins.

Well, Kim hasn't been so stupid as to invade a neighboring country. Putin made a massive miscalculation that the west would not intervene and also that the Ukrainians would acquiesce, as they did in Crimea. Once he got in, he was trapped. He couldn't withdraw with a humiliating defeat or he'd lose his regime. I think the Russians back him in his delusion of grandeur as the reincarnation of Peter the Great, but they're in the process of turning on him now. It just has to play out. History has not been kind to initiators of wars of aggression which don't succeed...

 

[Its On A Slab]

Well, Kim hasn't been so stupid as to invade a neighboring country. Putin made a massive miscalculation that the west would not intervene and also that the Ukrainians would acquiesce, as they did in Crimea. Once he got in, he was trapped. He couldn't withdraw with a humiliating defeat or he'd lose his regime. I think the Russians back him in his delusion of grandeur as the reincarnation of Peter the Great, but they're in the process of turning on him now. It just has to play out. History has not been kind to initiators of wars of aggression which don't succeed...

If you want some unintentional humor, go to YouTube and search for Sputnik News's page. They have this Russian spokesperson who has a British accent. With a straight face, she parrots the "We are fighting Nazis" trope even to this day. How stupid are people to believe this b.s. Yet you have many fanboys and fangirls in the comments section. I don't know if they are even real or just Russian bots.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

If you want some unintentional humor, go to YouTube and search for Sputnik News's page. They have this Russian spokesperson who has a British accent. With a straight face, she parrots the "We are fighting Nazis" trope even to this day. How stupid are people to believe this b.s. Yet you have many fanboys and fangirls in the comments section. I don't know if they are even real or just Russian bots.

Probably a mix. I read yesterday an account by a few Ukrainian girls, three, I think, refugees in Berlin. Out together, they were accosted by several young men, speaking accented Russian, who asked where they were from. They replied in Ukrainian, although, as the author put it, they were all in the process of "transitioning" from Russian. The young men were parroting exactly the tropes you describe and telling them that the Russians would simply kill all Ukrainians when they too over. The interesting thing was that the youths were ethnic Slavic Russians. She guessed Chechens...

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Honduras establishes ties with China after Taiwan break

Honduras has established diplomatic ties with China after breaking off relations with Taiwan, which is increasingly isolated and now recognized by only 13 sovereign states.

apnews.com

Handing out money and making friends. Perhaps not a big deal now, but should the day come that Honduras can't pay them back, they'll be practically owned by China. And if memory serves, that has already happened in a few African countries.

 

[Go Bama]

I didn't realize that there are only 13 sovereign states that recognize Taiwan.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I didn't realize that there are only 13 sovereign states that recognize Taiwan.

Ditto.

Not sure why that is, though I can't help but wonder if China hasn't been buying allegiances.