Generally, if a guy commits, he has already been offered a scholarship. Unless that prospect kills someone or is involved in some kind of legal trouble, a school honors that offer. As such, they don't ditch a player very often.
I'm guessing Walker goes to Florida. He just gets caught in the numbers game. I'm guessing Jimmy Williams and Ben Obomanu get the last 2 offers. I may be wrong (and it won't be the first time) but that's the way I see things playing out.
There is not a simple answer to the question, except that everyone that CDF accepts a commitment from will fall into a category as follows:
COMMITMENTS QUALIFIED OR EXPECTED TO
QUALIFY (2002 SCHOLARSHIP/17 SLOTS)
(?) (?) (?)
EXPECTED BLUESHIRTS/2003 SCHOLLIE
LB/TE McLain (Qualified - will get 2002 schollie if any of above don't qualify)
LB Nance (Rehabbing knee)
RB/WR Ryan (Will attempt to qual. by 2003)
WR Pope (Same as Ryan)
DE Browder (May go to prep school/try to qualify)
SIGN AND PLACE (JUCO)
CB Malone (If they graduate from JUCO -
DT Smith will receive 2004 Schollie)
WILL LIKELY SIGN 3 MORE OF FOLLOWING
WR Obomanu, DT Williams, RB Wynn or Walker,
LB McGrew, ATH McNair, DB Taylor, RB/WR Green, Possibly JUCO LB (Any of these that do not sign with Bama will sign with someone
WHY SIGN BLUESHIRTS?
This staff is very loyal & expect loyalty in return. All blueshirts were offered scholarships, they desire strongly to play for Bama, and the coaches will sign them. Some are very athletic & can play different positions; all are considered good people and talented enough to contribute. May not find anyone they like better for a position or for a role. The balance of the permitted scholarships for 2003 will be offered to best available, by position or by athlete.
[This message has been edited by CrimsonFever (edited January 25, 2002).]
I agree with CrimsonFever's "numbers". However, the academic situations for some are uncertain, at this point, even to the coaching staff. For example, Clark is qualified on the core subjects but, as most think, is a couple of points short on the ACT. That's not an incredible number to make up on a retest. But, there just is no certainty that will happen. In a wait and see mode.
IMO, there are three prospects that Bama will take, regardless:
Obomanu, Williams, and Walker. If we don't sign one or more of these, IMO, we go to "plan B" that CF describes above.
I suppose the only disagreement I have with CF's analysis is that Wynn is still a possibility. I think he is solid to UF. But, I would love the opportunity to tell CrimsonFever that he was right on Wynn and I was wrong.
If I had to boot one it'd be Jimtavis...Jimmy Williams is far too good a DT prospect and Ben Obomanu is far too good a WR prospect. We already have 3 running backs and have signed Kenneth Darby...I don't think we need any more.
A few things have changed recently that will likely impact some of our recruits one way or the other. WR Broussard's scholarship offer was pulled (he'll probably sign with San Jose State). That leaves us with 13 commitments that were offered 2002 scholarships. Of those 13, Clark is the only one I'm aware of that is not fully qualified. He is partially qualified, so he'll have a scholarship whether or not he fully qualifies more than likely. He would probably be redshirted anyway, so the bottom line is he probably won't play this year.
That leaves us with 4 uncommitted scholarships for 2002. Three are being held in hopes that Williams, Obomanu, and Walker commit after the sanctions are announced. McNair is supposedly awaiting a scholarship offer, but apparently we have not offered yet. Taylor apparently has or will reaffirm his commitment to AU.
Malone and Smith are almost certainly going to JUCO, so they don't realistically affect our scholarship numbers for 2002 or 2003.
That leaves McLain and Nance, both qualified, plus Browder, Ryan, and Pope who are only partially qualified. All have committed, but have been offered 2003 (blueshirt) scholarships at this point. McLain is supposedly visiting AU this weekend. If he is offered a 2002 scholarship in time, he may be one of the 17. If he is not, my bet is that he will sign with AU if offered.
So, who gets the remaining four of the seventeen 2002 scholarships is not etched in stone yet, except that Williams, Walker, and Obomanu will each get one if they commit and sign. If we don't sign anyone else beside those 3 mentioned, McLain is first in line for the final 2002 scholarship. If any of these 4 don't sign, any of the blueshirts that fully qualify (if any) before school starts will likely get a 2002 scholarship.