Want to wrap up a few things on the 2016 class now that the dust has firmly settled on National Signing Day.
First off, the obvious: 'Bama pulled in another great class, despite some unnecessary fretting the past couple of months from the insecure wing of the fan base. I think we've signed some better classes over the years, but in general this class checks off all of the boxes that you want to check when you run down the overview of a class. Deep talent pool across the board? Check. Generally filled needs? Check. Inked a high percentage of targets? Check. Netted a few potential star players? Check. Talented QB and OT signees? Check. Some instant impact signees? Check. Good number of early enrollees? Check. Solid academics? Check.
Now, unquestionably, the final days of the recruiting season this year were more hectic than they typically are for Alabama. Why was that? I think there are three main factors at play here. Two of them I've discussed previously (Kirby leaving and CFB Playoff preparation), and I won't rehash here. The third factor? I think with the rise of early enrollments, the recruiting landscape has seen a pretty sharp dichotomy appear among top prospects, the result of which is that top prospects now are either enrolling earlier or essentially waiting until NSD. So, now you get early commitments from recruits who are lower-to-middle level billing (i.e. guys who are mainly looking to secure a spot), you then get a big wave of top prospects signing and enrolling early, and then... basically everything stops until NSD. The rush of January commitments has declined and everything now gets backloaded to NSD. As a practical matter, that ends up with there being a lot of open spots and uncertainty come NSD, and I think that's a part of the reason why things were so hectic for us late. For better or worse, I think this is a trend we are going to see largely continue in the years ahead.
All right, it's a great class, everyone stipulates to that, so let's flip the tables and play devil's advocate for a minute. What is there not to like about this class? I've got three areas of concern:
(1) Academics are a bigger concern than usual. Not in the class as a whole, which is generally in good shape, but academics are a serious concern with two of the more crucial signees in this class, namely Raekwon Davis and B.J. Emmons. It's going to be a real blow if these two end up in junior college next August.
(2) D-line didn't shape up like I had hoped, and we had some misses. I was a big fan of the Jamar King signing, but outside of him it's tricky. Davis is a freak physical specimen, but the odds are clearly against him qualifying right now. Kendell Jones could turn into a fine player, but he needs to drop 30-40 pounds before he can crack the playing rotation. I'm also a pretty big advocate of Quinnen Williams, but I imagine he will need a redshirt and a year or two in the S&C program. Definitely some talented guys, and some real long-term potential here, but outside of King I'm afraid we didn't add anyone who we can place in the DL rotation in 2016.
(3) Did not add a big, physical WR to the class. For the most part, we haven't done a good job of recruiting and developing size receivers since Julio left, and that didn't change this year. Trevon Diggs is a great talent, but he's an ArDarius Stewart type player, and he won't be able to physically impose outside. With Mullaney leaving, I think this probably means we will try to dip back into the graduate transfer market to pick up a possession guy for next fall.
Random aside: Looking at geographical breakdown, very strange year for 'Bama. Almost no presence in Georgia and Florida, yet we racked in Mississippi, where we have basically struck out for 20 years running. Could have made a lot of money betting on that one this time a year ago.
Now, a few thoughts on random guys:
Jonah Williams may be as good as any player in this class, and although his early commitment and enrollment kind of limited his exposure, he was a tremendous pull out of California. Between him and Charles Baldwin, 'Bama couldn't have possibly done any better at OT. Scott Lashley was pure lagniappe, even though I think he's got starting SEC caliber potential.
Looking at the frame of Terrell Hall, I get the feeling he may very well take the Jon Allen route and ultimately end up at defensive end. He's grown a couple of inches in the past year, and the knee surgery he had isn't going to help him move in space. Going to bet that Scott Cochran can put some serious bulk on this kid in the S&C program.
Deonte Brown and Miller Forristall are also going to need some serious time in the S&C program, for opposite reasons.'
T.J. Simmons was not as heralded publicly as a lot of guys in the class, but I think he's a fine prospect. With him enrolling early, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get on the field a bit this fall.
No idea what to expect out of Shawn Jennings. I had some reservations about him, and that was before he suffered a pretty serious knee injury last fall. Really not sure what his physical condition is at the moment, though it's comforting to know he enrolled early.
Ben Davis and Lyndell Wilson? Both of them have basically everything 'Bama looks for in a linebacker.
Irvin Smith was another promising prospect who perhaps didn't get the attention he deserved. He's got a great opportunity at early playing time, and he's in a serious position of need. With his frame, too, he can add some real weight if we need.
Shyheim Carter was the biggest positive 'Bama surprise of NSD to me. Most overlooked like steal was Nigel Knott, who was an Ole Miss legacy. Nearly the same can be said for Jared Mayden, given his Oklahoma ties. Knott is going to have to add weight (kid looks like a beanpole, but the athleticism is outstanding), and Carter will as well, although to a lesser extent than Knott. I think Mayden is more physically ready right now. All in all, though, just loved our DB haul, and thought it was critical. In this day and age of CFB, if you don't have a slew of DBs who can cover, your defense is going to light up the scoreboard.
The way Joshua Jacobs flew under the radar until the last minute ought to indicate to you how important the camp circuit is to kids who don't come from traditional recruiting hotbeds. I was very glad to see his signing, especially considering the academic uncertainty with Emmons. He's got a really good short-end burst, a low, compact frame, nice vision, and he runs bigger than his listed weight. If he can add a bit more bulk in the S&C program, he could find himself in the rotation in 2017, and might even be able to soak up some mop-up duty carries in 2016.
Finally, a few thoughts on some SEC programs:
Ole Miss had a truly great offensive haul, and a great overall class. Just what Freeze and company needed after the 2013 class headed off to the NFL. Their offensive pick-ups -- Little, Patterson, Brown, and Pennamon -- constitute perhaps the most star-studded group in the country, 'Bama included. Think Little in particular will be a three-and-out and a first round pick. Much of their future, though, is riding on the development of Patterson, and I'm as skeptical of Shreveport QB products as I am pregnant virgins. I will also note two more things: (1) The Yahoo! story definitely took some wind out of their sails on remaining prospects, but the bigger potential impact on that front will be in the 2017 class; and (2) this is a bit of a role reversal for Ole Miss, in that they've won largely with defense the past couple of years, but this is an offensive-heavy class and the defensive haul isn't particularly impressive.
In terms of quality of depth throughout a recruiting class, the haul from LSU is effectively second to none. Still, glaring problem... No QB. Of course. Either way, Miles, or his successor, will have a slew of talented kids in the next few years.
Kirby did very well at Georgia, and, barring some Muschamp-style struggles on the field, will recruit really well. Much like Ole Miss and Patterson, though, a lot of their fortunes ride on Eason, who also comes an area known for turning out some highly-touted yet highly-overrated QB prospects. Jake Heaps, anyone?
McElwain, on the other hand, isn't getting on the recruiting trails what Florida should be getting. If he keeps recruiting at this pace, he's going to find himself in trouble in Gainesville. Franks is getting a ton of hype at QB from the Florida homers, but honestly I think he's going to a bit of a project. Great physical tools, but there is some serious refinement around the edges needed before he can be a real difference maker in the SEC.
Thought Auburn had a fantastic haul at DL and WR, but otherwise that class is pretty run-of-the-mill. A lot hinges on John Franklin at QB, and I have no idea if Gus can make it work with him.
Tennessee had a decent haul, but honestly not nearly as strong as I expected them to have after showing some real signs of life in 2016. If they are really going to return to compete for the SEC on an annual basis, as their homers expect, this class was a step back.
Arkansas with another snoozer class. Bielema is just going to continue to be the tough out who presents challenging match-ups due to their (now) non-conventional offense.
Mississippi State... Mullen helped cement the inevitable post-Dak decline with this class, though getting Simmons an absolute shocker. Simmons notwithstanding, it's the same song and dance from Mullen: The man just can't win head-to-head battles.
Swagcopter wasn't exactly soaring this year, and in general an otherwise middling haul for Texas A&M. Given all of the turmoil surrounding the program, though, my sense of it is that Sumlin perhaps did as well as could reasonably be expected this year. You don't have the kind of extracurricular garbage and on-field struggles that they had and then go out and sign a top class.
First off, the obvious: 'Bama pulled in another great class, despite some unnecessary fretting the past couple of months from the insecure wing of the fan base. I think we've signed some better classes over the years, but in general this class checks off all of the boxes that you want to check when you run down the overview of a class. Deep talent pool across the board? Check. Generally filled needs? Check. Inked a high percentage of targets? Check. Netted a few potential star players? Check. Talented QB and OT signees? Check. Some instant impact signees? Check. Good number of early enrollees? Check. Solid academics? Check.
Now, unquestionably, the final days of the recruiting season this year were more hectic than they typically are for Alabama. Why was that? I think there are three main factors at play here. Two of them I've discussed previously (Kirby leaving and CFB Playoff preparation), and I won't rehash here. The third factor? I think with the rise of early enrollments, the recruiting landscape has seen a pretty sharp dichotomy appear among top prospects, the result of which is that top prospects now are either enrolling earlier or essentially waiting until NSD. So, now you get early commitments from recruits who are lower-to-middle level billing (i.e. guys who are mainly looking to secure a spot), you then get a big wave of top prospects signing and enrolling early, and then... basically everything stops until NSD. The rush of January commitments has declined and everything now gets backloaded to NSD. As a practical matter, that ends up with there being a lot of open spots and uncertainty come NSD, and I think that's a part of the reason why things were so hectic for us late. For better or worse, I think this is a trend we are going to see largely continue in the years ahead.
All right, it's a great class, everyone stipulates to that, so let's flip the tables and play devil's advocate for a minute. What is there not to like about this class? I've got three areas of concern:
(1) Academics are a bigger concern than usual. Not in the class as a whole, which is generally in good shape, but academics are a serious concern with two of the more crucial signees in this class, namely Raekwon Davis and B.J. Emmons. It's going to be a real blow if these two end up in junior college next August.
(2) D-line didn't shape up like I had hoped, and we had some misses. I was a big fan of the Jamar King signing, but outside of him it's tricky. Davis is a freak physical specimen, but the odds are clearly against him qualifying right now. Kendell Jones could turn into a fine player, but he needs to drop 30-40 pounds before he can crack the playing rotation. I'm also a pretty big advocate of Quinnen Williams, but I imagine he will need a redshirt and a year or two in the S&C program. Definitely some talented guys, and some real long-term potential here, but outside of King I'm afraid we didn't add anyone who we can place in the DL rotation in 2016.
(3) Did not add a big, physical WR to the class. For the most part, we haven't done a good job of recruiting and developing size receivers since Julio left, and that didn't change this year. Trevon Diggs is a great talent, but he's an ArDarius Stewart type player, and he won't be able to physically impose outside. With Mullaney leaving, I think this probably means we will try to dip back into the graduate transfer market to pick up a possession guy for next fall.
Random aside: Looking at geographical breakdown, very strange year for 'Bama. Almost no presence in Georgia and Florida, yet we racked in Mississippi, where we have basically struck out for 20 years running. Could have made a lot of money betting on that one this time a year ago.
Now, a few thoughts on random guys:
Jonah Williams may be as good as any player in this class, and although his early commitment and enrollment kind of limited his exposure, he was a tremendous pull out of California. Between him and Charles Baldwin, 'Bama couldn't have possibly done any better at OT. Scott Lashley was pure lagniappe, even though I think he's got starting SEC caliber potential.
Looking at the frame of Terrell Hall, I get the feeling he may very well take the Jon Allen route and ultimately end up at defensive end. He's grown a couple of inches in the past year, and the knee surgery he had isn't going to help him move in space. Going to bet that Scott Cochran can put some serious bulk on this kid in the S&C program.
Deonte Brown and Miller Forristall are also going to need some serious time in the S&C program, for opposite reasons.'
T.J. Simmons was not as heralded publicly as a lot of guys in the class, but I think he's a fine prospect. With him enrolling early, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get on the field a bit this fall.
No idea what to expect out of Shawn Jennings. I had some reservations about him, and that was before he suffered a pretty serious knee injury last fall. Really not sure what his physical condition is at the moment, though it's comforting to know he enrolled early.
Ben Davis and Lyndell Wilson? Both of them have basically everything 'Bama looks for in a linebacker.
Irvin Smith was another promising prospect who perhaps didn't get the attention he deserved. He's got a great opportunity at early playing time, and he's in a serious position of need. With his frame, too, he can add some real weight if we need.
Shyheim Carter was the biggest positive 'Bama surprise of NSD to me. Most overlooked like steal was Nigel Knott, who was an Ole Miss legacy. Nearly the same can be said for Jared Mayden, given his Oklahoma ties. Knott is going to have to add weight (kid looks like a beanpole, but the athleticism is outstanding), and Carter will as well, although to a lesser extent than Knott. I think Mayden is more physically ready right now. All in all, though, just loved our DB haul, and thought it was critical. In this day and age of CFB, if you don't have a slew of DBs who can cover, your defense is going to light up the scoreboard.
The way Joshua Jacobs flew under the radar until the last minute ought to indicate to you how important the camp circuit is to kids who don't come from traditional recruiting hotbeds. I was very glad to see his signing, especially considering the academic uncertainty with Emmons. He's got a really good short-end burst, a low, compact frame, nice vision, and he runs bigger than his listed weight. If he can add a bit more bulk in the S&C program, he could find himself in the rotation in 2017, and might even be able to soak up some mop-up duty carries in 2016.
Finally, a few thoughts on some SEC programs:
Ole Miss had a truly great offensive haul, and a great overall class. Just what Freeze and company needed after the 2013 class headed off to the NFL. Their offensive pick-ups -- Little, Patterson, Brown, and Pennamon -- constitute perhaps the most star-studded group in the country, 'Bama included. Think Little in particular will be a three-and-out and a first round pick. Much of their future, though, is riding on the development of Patterson, and I'm as skeptical of Shreveport QB products as I am pregnant virgins. I will also note two more things: (1) The Yahoo! story definitely took some wind out of their sails on remaining prospects, but the bigger potential impact on that front will be in the 2017 class; and (2) this is a bit of a role reversal for Ole Miss, in that they've won largely with defense the past couple of years, but this is an offensive-heavy class and the defensive haul isn't particularly impressive.
In terms of quality of depth throughout a recruiting class, the haul from LSU is effectively second to none. Still, glaring problem... No QB. Of course. Either way, Miles, or his successor, will have a slew of talented kids in the next few years.
Kirby did very well at Georgia, and, barring some Muschamp-style struggles on the field, will recruit really well. Much like Ole Miss and Patterson, though, a lot of their fortunes ride on Eason, who also comes an area known for turning out some highly-touted yet highly-overrated QB prospects. Jake Heaps, anyone?
McElwain, on the other hand, isn't getting on the recruiting trails what Florida should be getting. If he keeps recruiting at this pace, he's going to find himself in trouble in Gainesville. Franks is getting a ton of hype at QB from the Florida homers, but honestly I think he's going to a bit of a project. Great physical tools, but there is some serious refinement around the edges needed before he can be a real difference maker in the SEC.
Thought Auburn had a fantastic haul at DL and WR, but otherwise that class is pretty run-of-the-mill. A lot hinges on John Franklin at QB, and I have no idea if Gus can make it work with him.
Tennessee had a decent haul, but honestly not nearly as strong as I expected them to have after showing some real signs of life in 2016. If they are really going to return to compete for the SEC on an annual basis, as their homers expect, this class was a step back.
Arkansas with another snoozer class. Bielema is just going to continue to be the tough out who presents challenging match-ups due to their (now) non-conventional offense.
Mississippi State... Mullen helped cement the inevitable post-Dak decline with this class, though getting Simmons an absolute shocker. Simmons notwithstanding, it's the same song and dance from Mullen: The man just can't win head-to-head battles.
Swagcopter wasn't exactly soaring this year, and in general an otherwise middling haul for Texas A&M. Given all of the turmoil surrounding the program, though, my sense of it is that Sumlin perhaps did as well as could reasonably be expected this year. You don't have the kind of extracurricular garbage and on-field struggles that they had and then go out and sign a top class.
