NSNP: Market "crash"

[BamaNation]

Barrons.com:
“Having returned 50% since its late-March lows, the S&P 500 is just a hair below a record close. It closed up 0.3% on Monday, at 3360.5. Any mark above 3386.2 would do the trick.

The S&P 500’s all-time high was on Feb. 19, 2020, 120 trading days ago. It has been a roller-coaster ride since, with the index next falling over 39% to its bear-market low on March 23.”

 

[BamaNation]

Records galore this week.

Apple @ $2T That's trillion with a T

S&P500 and NASDAQ set records

Lots of interesting charts, graphs, and data from the blog of an NYU professor who studies valuations... For folks interested in corp. finance & valuation details, this blog is a really interesting read with loads of numbers crunched. Numbers below are as of 8/14:



On a personal note, we have 'Stayed the Course'. It was a tough few months watching / wondering / losing sleep over / worrying what would happen. Certainly there may still be rough waters ahead but we didn't panic and sell and we didn't panic and buy. We've both been blessed to be employed and keep doing EXACTLY (investing-wise) what we were doing before the crash in Feb/Mar. All of those things have helped (plus a lot of prayers for peace of mind regardless of what happened to us / the economy !).

My wife's company shares (ESPP etc. ) went down 75% over the course of a couple weeks from their February peak to their low in March. It's 'back' to down about 10% from February peak.

Overall, we are a good ways up from the crash value because everything we invested during Feb-March was acquired at such a low price. We're 75% equity / 25% bonds so bond value being high helps overall values, too (we're long holders so even if/when they go down, we'll just rebalance into bonds as necessary. We haven't had to rebalance (either way) but we're close based on our Investment Policy Statement (IPS). Both bonds and stocks going up has negated the need so far.

The IPS helped us not panic because we had - ahead of time - determined our course based on a pretty thorough analysis and documented understanding of our risk tolerance, asset allocation dimensions, cash flow needs, long-term view, and horizon ... all of which allowed us to stay the course. I hope that we're not tested again anytime soon!

 

[Padreruf]

Records galore this week.

Apple @ $2T That's trillion with a T

S&P500 and NASDAQ set records

Lots of interesting charts, graphs, and data from the blog of an NYU professor who studies valuations... For folks interested in corp. finance & valuation details, this blog is a really interesting read with loads of numbers crunched. Numbers below are as of 8/14:

View attachment 10313

On a personal note, we have 'Stayed the Course'. It was a tough few months watching / wondering / losing sleep over / worrying what would happen. Certainly there may still be rough waters ahead but we didn't panic and sell and we didn't panic and buy. We've both been blessed to be employed and keep doing EXACTLY (investing-wise) what we were doing before the crash in Feb/Mar. All of those things have helped (plus a lot of prayers for peace of mind regardless of what happened to us / the economy !).

My wife's company shares (ESPP etc. ) went down 75% over the course of a couple weeks from their February peak to their low in March. It's 'back' to down about 10% from February peak.

Overall, we are a good ways up from the crash value because everything we invested during Feb-March was acquired at such a low price. We're 75% equity / 25% bonds so bond value being high helps overall values, too (we're long holders so even if/when they go down, we'll just rebalance into bonds as necessary. We haven't had to rebalance (either way) but we're close based on our Investment Policy Statement (IPS). Both bonds and stocks going up has negated the need so far.

The IPS helped us not panic because we had - ahead of time - determined our course based on a pretty thorough analysis and documented understanding of our risk tolerance, asset allocation dimensions, cash flow needs, long-term view, and horizon ... all of which allowed us to stay the course. I hope that we're not tested again anytime soon!

Amazingly my retirement funds -- bonds, stocks, etc...are not up 3% for the year...after being down 10% earlier I am relieved...and thankful.

 

[BamaNation]

10/28/2020

Lots of volatility today and about 85% of it in the downward direction. VIX (volatility index) up ~25% this week to now over 40. Biggest down week so far across the entire market in many months. (About 6% down this week through today). The usual suspects are the reason: Election (un)certainty, Covid increases, no stimulus bill probably before February, and European quasi lockdown again.

Total market was down 3.31%, Total bond index down .14%. So, if you're like us and at a 75/25 equity/bond allocation, you're down about 2.5% today. Not fun but not terrible. Haven't confirmed, but I think I'm still up for the year which is amazing. Also, staying the course through the big down weeks in the spring means I'm safely still positive on those down weeks, as well.

Tomorrow a BUNCH of high tech stocks that reported huge Q2 earnings beats will report their Q3 earnings (most of the FAANG's and other techs). Expectation is they'll beat again. Any misses could be a big down day again. Some techs / webs reporting after hours tonight were reporting huge gains or beats and are up bigtime. Ford even reported HUGE beat and is up 4% in aftermarket. So there's a sense that the next 3-6 months won't be awesome, but will hopefully be not like Feb/March 2020. Stay the Course

On a very positive note in the COVID19 front, a couple of Covid treatments had results published today. First, Regeneron announced that its treatment cocktail reduced need for hospitalization by 57% in its current stage 2/3 trial. Eli Lilly had a study published in the NEJM today showing its drug infusion reduced hospitalization from 6.3% to 1.6% (placebo vs EL drug). Keep praying that these and other treatments and vaccines are made available soon and work even better than anticipated for the overall increased health of people affected and the economy (which can also affect health).

 

[Bamaro]

U.S. stocks continued to sell off on Wednesday in what is shaping up to be their worst week since late March, as rising coronavirus infections shook investors’ confidence in the global economic recovery.

The Dow industrials lost 943.24 points, or 3.4%, to 26519.95, their fourth losing session in a row and worst day since June 11.

The S&P 500 fell 119.65, or 3.5%, to 3271.03, its third consecutive down session. The benchmark has slipped more than 8% from its record closing level in early September and its gains for the year now stand around 1.3%.
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 426.48, or 3.7%, to 11004.87, trimming its gains for the year to 22.7%. The stock prices of Facebook, Google parent Alphabet and Twitter dropped more than 5% each after their chief executives squared off against U.S. senators in a congressional hearing over their companies’ roles moderating public discourse.

Stocks Close Sharply Lower on Rising Coronavirus Cases

Elevated infection levels stoked concerns that more lockdown measures may be looming, potentially dealing another blow to the economic recovery.

www.wsj.com

 

[BamaNation]

11/9 830am : Dow futures up 5.5% on Pfizer vaccine news. At this rate, Dow will be at all time highs at opening. Let's see if it holds ...

Stock market news live updates: Dow climbs 835 points to pare some gains after soaring to a record intraday high

Stocks sailed to record highs Monday morning as traders took in promising data on a leading COVID-19 vaccine candidate as well as President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, ending a days-long nail-biter over which candidate would prevail in winning the White House.

finance.yahoo.com

Dow Futures YTD



11/9 Dow Futures

 

[BamaNation]

at 9am Dow futures up over 6%, S&P500 up over 4.5%. Look at moves in Oil & Gold futures. Foreign exchanges loving the news, too.





If you Stayed the Course, you're back above where you were in February! Again, let's see how this thing settles out. Some of that outcome will depend on what happens between now and Jan 20 and some on the virus vaccine news and distribution efforts. Either way, I'm praying for vaccines to be hugely effective and markets to return to less volatility.

 

[B1GTide]

If you Stayed the Course, you're back above where you were in February!

We dumped more cash into stocks and continued to invest, so we are up quite a bit since the low. I feel terrible for those who are not able to take advantage of this market.

 

[Bamaro]

May be time to move some funds, for next years RMD, from stock funds to money markets.

 

[92tide]

We dumped more cash into stocks and continued to invest, so we are up quite a bit since the low. I feel terrible for those who are not able to take advantage of this market.

thankfully, we stayed the course and continued with our regular contributions and left everything in place.

we got back to feb levels by summer.

 

[2003TIDE]

Same. We didn't touch anything.

I'll evaluate on 1/1 as I do every year where we are vs 1/1/2020. Several years ago I ran all our numbers through a retirement calculator that projected savings each year until retirement. I created an excel sheet and as an exercise in curiosity, I check at the beginning of each year to see how far above or below the projection we are.

 

[BamaNation]

What a crazy year. Dow & S&P500 set records today. Vaccine news provides a light at the end of the tunnel - even if that tunnel extends into 2Q 2021. Finality in the election will be good but it's not really driving the markets now - less uncertainty re: Covid is.

Dow



S&P500