Michigan Opens as Slight Favorite in Rose Bowl

[CajunCrimson]

Vegas is way less corrupt than you think. They can make so much money legitimately, that there is no reason to cheat. With the insane expansion of online, and uneducated bettors, they are taking it in.

I watched the numbers move as word began to leak about Bama maybe sliding in to 4.

DraftKings had side by side bets:

Bama in the playoffs 😆+180
FSU not in the playoffs +240

Basically the same bet. But the amount of action on Bama vs against FSU was staggering.

Some crazy stat about 96% of amateur online gamblers lose over the first year.

why cheat?

 

[The Ols]

95% of public bets are placed the week before the game. They’re not going to change the line this early.

Not true , but ok…it already moved.5 from opening.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Vegas is way less corrupt than you think. They can make so much money legitimately, that there is no reason to cheat. With the insane expansion of online, and uneducated bettors, they are taking it in.

I watched the numbers move as word began to leak about Bama maybe sliding in to 4.

DraftKings had side by side bets:

Bama in the playoffs 😆+180
FSU not in the playoffs +240

Basically the same bet. But the amount of action on Bama vs against FSU was staggering.

Some crazy stat about 96% of amateur online gamblers lose over the first year.

why cheat?

100% agreed.

But to be fair though some people seemed to think Texas would get left out (I never thought that was realistic). So there was theoretically a scenario where FSU was in the playoffs and so was Alabama.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733140926443233487

Per @BamaCentral, if Alabama wins the Rose Bowl, Nick Saban will be the first coach to win back-to-back games during the same season against two different No. 1 teams in college football history.

 

[FF4bama]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733140926443233487

The only reason Coach Saban doesn't already own that statistic is that Alabama has been #1 in the polls so often during his tenure at Alabama.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

The only reason Coach Saban doesn't already own that statistic is that Alabama has been #1 in the polls so often during his tenure at Alabama.

I also imagine its very very rare to play #1 teams back to back

 

[FF4bama]

I also imagine its very very rare to play #1 teams back to back

It just dawned on me that another first will be added at the end of the game (I hope). Coach Saban will be the first coach to defeat #1 teams in back to back games. He has set the bar so high I don't see how anyone will ever come close to his accomplishments.

 

[BhamToTexas]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1733140926443233487

This would be impressive. And we would have to beat two very good conference champions to win it all.

Compare that to Georgia, who didn't have to beat a single conference champion last year.

 

[LittleLexi]

I think he’s suggesting that since the line hasn’t moved that Vegas is happily scooping up money bet on Bama with the idea that Vegas thinks Michigan will easily cover.

The one thing we don’t know are the money line bets. Which is a straight up thing vs a spread

Also, it’s 3+ weeks away and most of the bets haven’t been placed yet. It will even out. They will want it to.

Opening was -2.5 and quickly went to 1.5. That is smart money, not public betting it down. I expect it to go to pickum on game day and possibly Bama as -1.

 

[Probius]

It is about the money. A lot of money will be bet on Michigan

Yes, but why will a lot of money be bet on Michigan?

 

[LittleLexi]

Michigan runs an old school pro set offense. They use their tight ends to block and receive. They lean on the run and play action. They are very similar to Georgia.

I just saw the stat comparison of Bama and Michigan. I expected Michigan to run for over 200 per game, but they rank below Bama in rushing. I know you are a Big10 guy, but this game is going to be very similar to the Bama- MSU game a few years ago.

 

[TiderJack]

Here is a consensus line movement from a betting website. Appears it went from 2.5 to currently 1.5 and actually got to 1 for a couple of days.

Line Movement
ALAMICH
CONSENSUS
Spread
Moneyline
Total
1st Half Spread
1st Half Moneyline
1st Half Total
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5

 

[TiderJack]

I just saw the stat comparison of Bama and Michigan. I expected Michigan to run for over 200 per game, but they rank below Bama in rushing. I know you are a Big10 guy, but this game is going to be very similar to the Bama- MSU game a few years ago.

Michigan is better than MSU was that year IMO.

 

[Cruloc]

Michigan is better than MSU was that year IMO.

That Michigan State team was likely the worst playoff team ever included. This Michigan team is indeed way better than that MSU team.

 

[B1GTide]

I just saw the stat comparison of Bama and Michigan. I expected Michigan to run for over 200 per game, but they rank below Bama in rushing. I know you are a Big10 guy, but this game is going to be very similar to the Bama- MSU game a few years ago.

I hope you are right.

 

[B1GTide]

That Michigan State team was likely the worst playoff team ever included. This Michigan team is indeed way better than that MSU team.

No, TCU was, but they were pretty bad.

 

[TexasBama]

The local news was talking about ticket prices for the final. $ 1,300 to get in the building.

 

[cbi1972]

No, TCU was, but they were pretty bad.

What does this say about the Michigan team they beat in the semis?

 

[rolltide7854]

What does this say about the Michigan team they beat in the semis?

They got their signals crossed?

 

[Cruloc]

No, TCU was, but they were pretty bad.

I give that TCU an edge over that MSU team simply because they did indeed win one game and it was over the sign stealing cheaters.