Offseason Thread: When Saban Retires -- Who?

DogPatch

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I don't think the next HC @ UA is a head coach right now. CNS is at least 6-8 years away...a lifetime in CFB. If it is in the next 2-3 years I would almost bet on BOB if he continues to do well.
I don't see him staying more than 3 years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him leave after this season if he wins another national championship..
 

Perrett4Bama

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Good list and logic. I do think, if Saban stays another 2-3 years, and Napier does well at Florida, that Napier would be a candidate. The Alabama job post-Saban is better than the Florida job post-Mullen.

Note: Napier will probably struggle in the W-L category for at least a year and a half. Mullen left the cupboard bare, and they lost some guys in the portal. He will have to rebuild, not from the foundation, but from bare earth up. So the definition of “doing well” will likely have to be based on momentum, not the full history.
Ditto, Napier would be my choice. I think we're three to five years away. I have a feeling he is going to be successful at Florida just as he was in Louisiana. He runs his programs as close to CNS as anyone. My hope is that he has some successful years in Florida. If so, I think he would jump on the chance to come back to T-town. If CMT continues to have success at Michigan State he would be my second choice. With this said, I hope CNS coaches until he is 100 years old!🤣🤣👍🏻😁
 

DawgAlum2054

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The Napier stuff confuses me. He was successful for the ragin cajuns in the sunbelt conference

I have not seen many success stories in the last 10-15 years from coaches moving from the sunbelt to the power 5. Lets look at the sunbelt and similar conferences history when moving to the power 5

Scott Satterfield did a good job at App State with an 11-2 season in 2018. Since then Satterfield has done a rather horrible job at Louisville

Eli Drinkwitz went 13-1 at App State in 2019 with wins over north carolina and south carolina. So far he has been unsuccessful

Neal Brown did good at Troy, has not succeeded at west virginia in 3 seasons

Mike Norvell did a good job at memphis. How much longer will FSU tolerate him?

Willie Taggart did good at South Florida, he was a joke at FSU

Bryan Harsin did good at Boise State lol

Scott Frost was a legend at UCF and now is on the hot seat at nebraska

so help me out here, where are the success stories of coaches moving up to the power 5 that I am missing? Jamey Chadwell and Jeff Traylor have done good so far, but I don't see anyone saying they want them as Alabama's next coach.... yet Napier is getting mentioned multiple times?
 

DogPatch

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The Napier stuff confuses me. He was successful for the ragin cajuns in the sunbelt conference

I have not seen many success stories in the last 10-15 years from coaches moving from the sunbelt to the power 5. Lets look at the sunbelt and similar conferences history when moving to the power 5

Scott Satterfield did a good job at App State with an 11-2 season in 2018. Since then Satterfield has done a rather horrible job at Louisville

Eli Drinkwitz went 13-1 at App State in 2019 with wins over north carolina and south carolina. So far he has been unsuccessful

Neal Brown did good at Troy, has not succeeded at west virginia in 3 seasons

Mike Norvell did a good job at memphis. How much longer will FSU tolerate him?

Willie Taggart did good at South Florida, he was a joke at FSU

Bryan Harsin did good at Boise State lol

Scott Frost was a legend at UCF and now is on the hot seat at nebraska

so help me out here, where are the success stories of coaches moving up to the power 5 that I am missing? Jamey Chadwell and Jeff Traylor have done good so far, but I don't see anyone saying they want them as Alabama's next coach.... yet Napier is getting mentioned multiple times?
For me, Napier has more of an "it" factor than Chadwell, and Traylor is older than I would want in a future head coach. I almost included Chaldwell on my list, but decided to go with DeBoer. I don't have the data at my fingertips, and I don't care to put in the time, but there are plenty of coaches that have moved up from lesser conferences and divisions that have had success. Jim Tressell immediately comes to mind.

Also, everyone pretty much agrees that if you are expanding this list beyond one or two candidates who are ready RIGHT NOW, you have to look at potential, which Napier seems to have.
 
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81usaf92

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The Napier stuff confuses me. He was successful for the ragin cajuns in the sunbelt conference

I have not seen many success stories in the last 10-15 years from coaches moving from the sunbelt to the power 5. Lets look at the sunbelt and similar conferences history when moving to the power 5

Scott Satterfield did a good job at App State with an 11-2 season in 2018. Since then Satterfield has done a rather horrible job at Louisville

Eli Drinkwitz went 13-1 at App State in 2019 with wins over north carolina and south carolina. So far he has been unsuccessful

Neal Brown did good at Troy, has not succeeded at west virginia in 3 seasons

Mike Norvell did a good job at memphis. How much longer will FSU tolerate him?

Willie Taggart did good at South Florida, he was a joke at FSU

Bryan Harsin did good at Boise State lol

Scott Frost was a legend at UCF and now is on the hot seat at nebraska

so help me out here, where are the success stories of coaches moving up to the power 5 that I am missing? Jamey Chadwell and Jeff Traylor have done good so far, but I don't see anyone saying they want them as Alabama's next coach.... yet Napier is getting mentioned multiple times?
Honestly I think Napier is the new McElwain. A guy that the fanbase really has nothing but positives to say and it’s mostly because he never was controversial and seems like a nice guy. But he is really unproven as a head coach. Plus he is a young guy

If you ask me, if we are going to hire a Saban disciple if he retires this year then it’s one of two people. Kiffin or Bill O’Brien. I would say the latter is more likely than the former because of the issues Kiffin had here and BOB has current familiarity with the team and recruits. I think a guy who has handled a P5 job well is going to be a guy that we target and not a directional school all star.
 

PA Tide Fan

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I don't see him staying more than 3 years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him leave after this season if he wins another national championship..
I think there's one goal left that Saban would like to achieve and that would be to pass Coach Bryant in number of career wins and also wins at Alabama. Right now Saban is 50 wins away from achieving both. If we throw out Saban's first season at Alabama he's been averaging 12.5 wins per season, so in 4 more years he could pass Bryant and most certainly would do it in 5 more. Saban would be 75 at that point and would have achieved every goal an Alabama HC could hope for so that's when I think he could retire, unless he still feels good and if Bama is still among the top 2 or 3 schools in recruiting he might try to go a bit longer.
 

BamaMoon

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I don't see him staying more than 3 years, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him leave after this season if he wins another national championship..
What do you base this on?

If you listen to CNS when he addresses his future concerning coaching it doesn't sound like he's got a 3 year exit strategy. It sounds like as long as he's healthy and enjoying coaching he wants to keep doing it. Most folks look forward to quitting their job; CNS doesn't sound like one of those guys.

I think there's one goal left that Saban would like to achieve and that would be to pass Coach Bryant in number of career wins and also wins at Alabama. Right now Saban is 50 wins away from achieving both. If we throw out Saban's first season at Alabama he's been averaging 12.5 wins per season, so in 4 more years he could pass Bryant and most certainly would do it in 5 more. Saban would be 75 at that point and would have achieved every goal an Alabama HC could hope for so that's when I think he could retire, unless he still feels good and if Bama is still among the top 2 or 3 schools in recruiting he might try to go a bit longer.
Who knows? CNS doesn't seem motivated by those things, but I can't imagine him not wanting to accomplish those things too.

I personally don't think he'll have to surpass CPB's numbers to be considered the best ever. He could quit today and he'd already be considered the best college coach ever (even at Bama) considering what he's done in the modern era with the parity and rules that he's had to coach under.
 

TideEngineer08

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Who knows? CNS doesn't seem motivated by those things, but I can't imagine him not wanting to accomplish those things too.

I personally don't think he'll have to surpass CPB's numbers to be considered the best ever. He could quit today and he'd already be considered the best college coach ever (even at Bama) considering what he's done in the modern era with the parity and rules that he's had to coach under.
We all know with CNS it is about the Process and not the results. The Process leads to the results. But I believe if you could get him to tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth about his career goals, this would be one of them. I believe passing Coach Bryant on the NC count was as well.
 

DogPatch

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What do you base this on?

If you listen to CNS when he addresses his future concerning coaching it doesn't sound like he's got a 3 year exit strategy. It sounds like as long as he's healthy and enjoying coaching he wants to keep doing it. Most folks look forward to quitting their job; CNS doesn't sound like one of those guys.
Personal interaction with him over the past eight years. I get a completely different feel when talking to him now, versus when I first met him.

I'm not saying he has a three year exit plan. I'm sure he'll coach as long as he finds it enjoyable and can do it at a high level. I just believe that he's done within three years.

Also, he's already beginning to face what was one of Coach Bryant's biggest problems: negative recruiting due to his age. He can say he's going to stay for X years, but there comes a point where you know he won't be here that long. Also, regardless of what he actually feels, he's not going to put out any numbers that could negatively affect recruiting.
 

81usaf92

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Personal interaction with him over the past eight years. I get a completely different feel when talking to him now, versus when I first met him.

I'm not saying he has a three year exit plan. I'm sure he'll coach as long as he finds it enjoyable and can do it at a high level. I just believe that he's done within three years.

Also, he's already beginning to face what was one of Coach Bryant's biggest problems: negative recruiting due to his age. He can say he's going to stay for X years, but there comes a point where you know he won't be here that long. Also, regardless of what he actually feels, he's not going to put out any numbers that could negatively affect recruiting.
I kinda get the feeling that if he wins it this year then him hanging it up is more likely than it has been the last 5 years. I think this is a team that he has building towards for awhile and there are several kinda weird stories that have surfaced in the past two years that makes me feel the last year is closer than what many think.

I don’t see him pulling a Bowden or Paterno in which he is chasing a potential number. I think it’s more likely that he will try to end it on a championship, but above all I don’t see him driving the program into the ground because he is chasing a specific number.
 
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TideEngineer08

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I kinda get the feeling that if he wins it this year then him hanging it up is more likely than it has been the last 5 years. I think this is a team that he has building towards for awhile and there are several kinda weird stories that have surfaced in the past two years that makes me feel the last year is closer than what many think.

I don’t see him pulling a Bowden or Paterno in which he is chasing a potential number. I think it’s more likely that he will try to end it on a championship, but above all I don’t see him driving the program into the ground because he is chasing a specific number.
Yeah earlier I did not mean to suggest he would sacrifice the quality of the program in order to obtain the win total. Everything is downstream from The Process. But if it can be obtained, I think he wants to pass Coach Bryant on the wins list. Well, I don't know the man personally. But I do believe it's something he would like to achieve, IF the program's quality can be maintained while doing so.
 
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81usaf92

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Yeah earlier I did not mean to suggest he would sacrifice the quality of the program in order to obtain the win total. Everything is downstream from The Process. But if it can be obtained, I think he wants to pass Coach Bryant on the wins list. Well, I don't know the man personally. But I do believe it's something he would like to achieve, IF the program's quality can be maintained while doing so.
Maybe. I just don’t think he cares as much about it. Maybe 7 NCs at Alabama… I just don’t think he wants to see an actual decline in his tenure here. You can already see much of the SEC catching up to Alabama, and becoming better copy cats. Eventually someone is going to break through and have a very consistent run. I’m not talking about a Georgia or LSU 1 year Championship I’m talking about a run that actually puts Bama fans back into a feeling like they were in 2007-2011 in which every SECC was a huge deal.

I just get the feeling that at some point he will be “satisfied” with what he accomplished and ride out into the sunset. I dont think he wants what is happening to Belichick right now happen to him. I think he will pick a high point or a good season to go out on. I still say 3 years but if we make it to Sofi this year then I’m going because I think it’s a real possibility and I want to say I was at the 1st and last game coached by CNS at Alabama, and plus I want to go to Sofi

But again none of us really know, and over the years I’ve always hated this subject because I felt it was too far out to start with the discussion. But I kinda get the feeling that it’s close enough to start the discussion. What I base it off of… just a feeling. But who knows he could go on for another 5-7.
 

RollTide_HTTR

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I've been preparing like every year is Saban's last since 2016.

I think he wants to go out on top but I also think he doesn't want to leave the program and have it fall apart as soon as he's gone.

The one reason I don't think he'd leave after this season is its more likely for the program to fall off after losing a Heisman QB like Bryce. But all of this is just a guess

Idk when he will retire but he's getting to an age where health can be more volatile.
 

CoolBreeze

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I really dislike these annual threads. I mean, I know Coach will retire someday but i don't like being reminded of it and I am sure he doesn't either. When it happens none of us will have anticipated it not to mention the fact that Alabama will begin its slow decline. Nothing and no one can stop that unfortunately. So I prefer to enjoy the good times and face the dreaded day later, hopefully way later in the future.
 
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RollTide_HTTR

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I really dislike these annual threads. I mean, I know Coach will retire someday but i don't like being reminded of it and I am sure he doesn't either. When it happens none of us will have anticipated it not to mention the fact that Alabama will begin its slow decline. Nothing and no one can stop that unfortunately. So I prefer to enjoy the good times and face the dreaded day later, hopefully way later in the future.
I doubt Saban is checking TideFans. And personally I enjoy it more after accepting that he could leave any year
 

81usaf92

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I've been preparing like every year is Saban's last since 2016.

I think he wants to go out on top but I also think he doesn't want to leave the program and have it fall apart as soon as he's gone.

The one reason I don't think he'd leave after this season is its more likely for the program to fall off after losing a Heisman QB like Bryce. But all of this is just a guess

Idk when he will retire but he's getting to an age where health can be more volatile.
I didn’t start thinking about it until really until 2020. There was a lot of reputable people talking about Sark potentially being in consideration for a coach in waiting and asked to stay on. These weren’t your Joe blow Stephen M Smith people just starting these rumors but actually people that don’t tend to write crazy crap. It’s been constantly said in recent years that he wishes to spend more time with his grandkids and you can kind of see him change.

I also think BOB staying while the Patriots still don’t have an OC could be taken that he might know something. I think Saban is more like Brady than Belichick in that there is a clear post football career and life plan lined up and that chases numbers is not as important as going out on a high note. I think if there is a number he wants it’s “7 at Alabama and 8 overall”. I just don’t see him caring about breaking anything else.

But like I said, if he coaches 5-7 more years of dominance I’ll love it like everyone here. But the day will come within 5 years at the most I would thi. But if I were betting I would say 3 or less. But only two people know the real answer so it could be between 1 or 10. Idk
 
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crimsonaudio

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I think there's one goal left that Saban would like to achieve and that would be to pass Coach Bryant in number of career wins and also wins at Alabama. Right now Saban is 50 wins away from achieving both. If we throw out Saban's first season at Alabama he's been averaging 12.5 wins per season, so in 4 more years he could pass Bryant and most certainly would do it in 5 more. Saban would be 75 at that point and would have achieved every goal an Alabama HC could hope for so that's when I think he could retire, unless he still feels good and if Bama is still among the top 2 or 3 schools in recruiting he might try to go a bit longer.
I know people are wired differently, so keep that in mind - this isn't a rant...

I understand Saban's description of his career - it's not about winning, NCs, surpassing records, etc. - he simply loves what he does and will continue to do it until he no longer brings value to the team. I'm the exact same way in my career - I plan on doing it until I simply cannot, I've ZERO interest in retiring.

If you listen to Saban, he's said over (and over and over) that he'll continue coaching until he cannot bring value to the players. That doesn't stop when he wins another NC or breaks some record. It happens when he feels he's lost the energy to continue the process at the level required to help the players be the best they can be.

Unless he's a liar or his health deteriorates rapidly, I cannot see him retiring in the near future. And that's not wishful thinking, that's simply taking the man at his word, something he's stated multiple times and as recently as a few months ago.

So while threads like this can be fun, I think they're more of a shot in the dark than any of us can know, as it literally wouldn't surprise me if Saban continued coaching until he's 80. He's found what he truly loves to do and will do it until he cannot do it to his own (high) standard anymore.

RTR
 

CoolBreeze

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I doubt Saban is checking TideFans. And personally I enjoy it more after accepting that he could leave any year
Yea, surely wasn't alluding to the fact that he was reading this board merely stating that it is a tired old subject for him. It is for me too as it is a way depressing thought really.
 

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