Omicron in Alabama

dtgreg

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So, I am just getting back from the weekend trip to Tuscaloosa. I couldn't sleep well last night so I was reading news articles and twitter. If the numbers are correct, and I'll provide links below, we're currently at 500 new cases here in Alabama. At a doubling rate of 1.5 days, we'll be off the charts in six days. A higher number of cases in hospitals than the worst day ever, which was in August with Delta.


Maybe someone can find flaws in my reading of data and math, but this is insane. Any clarification / correction will be very appreciated. Looking like Nuclear Winter right now. Buy some puts.

https://www.alreporter.com/mapping-coronavirus-in-alabama/

https://www.huntsvillehospital.org/images/PDFs/HH_COVID-19_Statistics.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Not Alabama, but my grandkids in Norfolk - he's in the Coast Guard. He developed a cold last Wed. He was tested this AM - positive. My granddaughter woke up sick, both with bad cold symptoms. The CG sent him home. My granddaughter was denied sick leave at the spay and neuter clinic where she works, even with a positive husband. The reason? Too many people out sick. It's idiot decisions which will ensure a rapid spread...
 

NationalTitles18

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So, I am just getting back from the weekend trip to Tuscaloosa. I couldn't sleep well last night so I was reading news articles and twitter. If the numbers are correct, and I'll provide links below, we're currently at 500 new cases here in Alabama. At a doubling rate of 1.5 days, we'll be off the charts in six days. A higher number of cases in hospitals than the worst day ever, which was in August with Delta.


Maybe someone can find flaws in my reading of data and math, but this is insane. Any clarification / correction will be very appreciated. Looking like Nuclear Winter right now. Buy some puts.

https://www.alreporter.com/mapping-coronavirus-in-alabama/

https://www.huntsvillehospital.org/images/PDFs/HH_COVID-19_Statistics.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/business/he...-days-areas-with-local-spread-who-2021-12-18/
Not gonna talk you off an accurate ledge - it is what it is. If more were vaxxed it would not be near the problem it is and will be.
 
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4Q Basket Case

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Nov 8, 2004
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Bad news / Good news here.

The omicron variant is materially more transmissible than delta. Which was materially more transmissible than the original version. It will spread incredibly quickly….for a while. More on that below.

Good news is that it’s also materially less severe than delta or the original. Which, if you think about it, is natural selection. The virus’s goal is to reproduce. If it mutates to increase transmissibility, goal achieved. But if it kills the host, not so much.

Point being, if you’re the virus and increase transmissibility, but don’t kill the host (i.e., reduce severity), you have a much greater chance of reproduction.

More good news is that recovering from omicron seems to indicate less vulnerability to delta, even if you’re an idiot and still unvaccinated.

Returning to the quick spread. Mathematically, several things work in our favor: First, a lot of people have already been vaccinated. A lot of others have had one version of covid or another. Both of those factors reduce, but don’t eliminate, transmissibility of omicron. More importantly, though, both reduce severity — hospitalizations and deaths.

Also mathematically, that would predict a fast run-up in new infections, especially among the unvaccinated.

But omicron is not as severe, and a lot of people are already vaccinated, and a lot of others have already had covid. Especially in concert with one another, all of those factors augur for not nearly as big a run-up in severe illness. Mathematically, they would also predict a fast increase. But then an equally fast plateau, followed by steep reduction as the virus runs out of unvaccinated hosts who have not already had covid..

Of course, none of that holds if there’s a new mutation that evades existing vaccines.
 

NationalTitles18

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Good post. I want to add some qualifiers, but it's more for the reading folks than as a response to you.

Good news is that it’s also materially less severe than delta or the original. Which, if you think about it, is natural selection. The virus’s goal is to reproduce. If it mutates to increase transmissibility, goal achieved. But if it kills the host, not so much.
Yes, but...

Less severity was/is not inevitable when a virus mutates. We were somewhat fortunate with this particular mutation. Delta was far more transmissible and just as deadly as the original, for instance. We may not be so lucky with the next one, and...

I see many dolts in places saying this new variant is just a cold. BS! For many vaccinated people and a few lucky unvaccinated folks it will be like a cold. For most others it will be like the worst flu of their lives or...wait for it...just like COVID-19 - complete with hospitalization and death.

There's also the problem of hospitals filling up again and all the bad stuff that goes with it - and there's less slack in the system now. In highly unvaccinated places like Alabama it may overwhelm the hospitals anyway. This will affect everyone if/when that happens.

More good news is that recovering from omicron seems to indicate less vulnerability to delta, even if you’re an idiot and still unvaccinated.
Assuming you survive and not accounting for long COVID and other complications. Anyone taking chances on infection over vaccination is a complete and utter fool.

Returning to the quick spread. Mathematically, several things work in our favor: First, a lot of people have already been vaccinated. A lot of others have had one version of covid or another. Both of those factors reduce, but don’t eliminate, transmissibility of omicron. More importantly, though, both reduce severity — hospitalizations and deaths.
The unvaccinated should have a pucker factor of 15 about now but are too stupid to be afraid. Maybe they will be lucky instead.

Especially in concert with one another, all of those factors augur for not nearly as big a run-up in severe illness.
See my earlier comment above in this post, but if it's 1/3 less severe (pulling a number out of my hind quarters) and 2-3x as transmissible highly unvaccinated areas are going to have problems and a lot of hospitalization and death. Predictions are for 40,000 dead in January - all from a preventable disease (disease being the key word).

Again, good post.
 
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