There's a great video by Peter Zeihan out earlier today, called, "India Takes on the Shadow Fleet."
As Zeihan is bad to do, there's a decidedly non-TF word at about the 8-minute mark. Which is why I haven't posted the link.
A quick Google search will turn it up. Might have to wait a day or three to have it land free on YouTube.
Lots of ifs and maybes. But bottom line is that India blocking passage of this method of moving oil could be the beginning of no-foolin' financial problems for Russia and real energy problems for China. Maybe. Several things have to fall into place.
What Zeihan doesn't mention is that his predictions are based on Western European countries following India's lead. Problem there is if you take 4-5 million barrels a day out of the production line, it will affect all energy prices pretty quickly -- gasoline, utilities, etc. Europe will feel the pinch first. The US will feel some pain too. But not as much as Europe because we're self-sufficient thanks to fracking.
Zeihan essentially assumes that Western Europe would tolerate even higher energy prices in order to put the thumbscrews to both Russia and China. I'm not as sure as he is.
Regardless, the video illustrates how intertwined are the global oil market, Russian ability to make war (yes, China supplies them, but it's on an advance-payment or COD basis), China's ability to run its economy, and Europe's resolve in the face of economic pain.
If you can stomach a single profanity, it's well worth a 9-minute watch.
As Zeihan is bad to do, there's a decidedly non-TF word at about the 8-minute mark. Which is why I haven't posted the link.
A quick Google search will turn it up. Might have to wait a day or three to have it land free on YouTube.
Lots of ifs and maybes. But bottom line is that India blocking passage of this method of moving oil could be the beginning of no-foolin' financial problems for Russia and real energy problems for China. Maybe. Several things have to fall into place.
What Zeihan doesn't mention is that his predictions are based on Western European countries following India's lead. Problem there is if you take 4-5 million barrels a day out of the production line, it will affect all energy prices pretty quickly -- gasoline, utilities, etc. Europe will feel the pinch first. The US will feel some pain too. But not as much as Europe because we're self-sufficient thanks to fracking.
Zeihan essentially assumes that Western Europe would tolerate even higher energy prices in order to put the thumbscrews to both Russia and China. I'm not as sure as he is.
Regardless, the video illustrates how intertwined are the global oil market, Russian ability to make war (yes, China supplies them, but it's on an advance-payment or COD basis), China's ability to run its economy, and Europe's resolve in the face of economic pain.
If you can stomach a single profanity, it's well worth a 9-minute watch.
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