Peter Zeihan: The End of China

[TexasBama]

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over

China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Go Bama]

This p

It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over

China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.

www.businessinsider.com

This paragraph grabbed my attention.

It's been clear for years that the Chinese real-estate market has been in trouble. China has a population of 1.4 billion, but it has built housing for a population of 3 billion, according to expert estimates. Many of the mega-developments became empty monuments to Beijing's insatiable desire for growth. In Shenyang, farmers have taken over a development of empty mansions for cattle grazing.

 

[crimsonaudio]

That article paints an even darker picture for China's future. Wow.

 

[Bodhisattva]

This paragraph grabbed my attention.

It's been clear for years that the Chinese real-estate market has been in trouble. China has a population of 1.4 billion, but it has built housing for a population of 3 billion, according to expert estimates. Many of the mega-developments became empty monuments to Beijing's insatiable desire for growth. In Shenyang, farmers have taken over a development of empty mansions for cattle grazing.

Holy cow! If the Chinese wanted to demonstrate why central economic planning is a bad idea at every level, then they are a rousing success. If that spread between supply and demand is even remotely accurate .... goodness! They'll be paying for that arrogant corruption for generations.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Holy cow! If the Chinese wanted to demonstrate why central economic planning is a bad idea at every level, then they are a rousing success. If that spread between supply and demand is even remotely accurate .... goodness! They'll be paying for that arrogant corruption for generations.

I’m not sure they will, Bodhi. Only because I’m not sure China will be around to pay for it. At least, not in its current form.

So I have two questions:
First, who owns Chinese government debt? Because collecting on that debt is going to be a problem.

Second, China might be in its death throes. But it can still cause a lot of trouble before it finally gives up the ghost. How much trouble will it cause before it dies?

I don’t know the answer to either question, but am deadly curious on #1 and most apprehensive on #2.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Second, China might be in its death throes. But it can still cause a lot of trouble before it finally gives up the ghost. How much trouble will it cause before it dies?

I think within a decade or two both China and Russia as we know them will be gone.

The problem is that the egomaniacal people leading these countries will likely be desperate to retain power at any and all costs, and both of these countries can cause major issues...

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I think within a decade or two both China and Russia as we know them will be gone.

The problem is that the egomaniacal people leading these countries will likely be desperate to retain power at any and all costs, and both of these countries can cause major issues...

Agreed. The truly scary thing is that logical thinking is out the window because they already know they have nothing to lose.

The parallel I’ve cited before is from a friend who was a paramedic for a while on Sand Mountain in NE Alabama — not exactly a bastion of luxury and privilege.

You have a guy who’s been shot multiple times with a small-caliber gun. He’s going to bleed out soon….essentially a dead man walking.

But in the meantime he’s hopped up on whatever drug it is, and is much hell before he finally collapses. It’s those last few minutes when he’s most dangerous.

 

[Tidewater]

Agreed. The truly scary thing is that logical thinking is out the window because they already know they have nothing to lose.

That assumes the leaders know how dire their situation is. I'm not sure that is true. Both Xi and Putin surround themselves with an echo chamber and I doubt anyone is telling them about the trouble impending.
Thomas Jefferson said, "Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it." In China and Russia, at least among the leaders' entourages, reason is not "left free to combat" error.

 

[Bodhisattva]

Nestle is closing an infant formula plant that makes products exclusively for the Asian market.

The announcement provides new insight into how the decline in China’s population could affect Western firms that sell goods and services in the country. An aging population is already weighing on China’s economic growth, and policymakers are worried that a shrinking workforce could threaten economic and social stability in the long term.

“The number of newborn babies in China has declined sharply from some 18 million per year in 2016 to fewer than 9 million projected in 2023,” Nestlé said in a statement.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/business-food/nestle-infant-formula-china-birth-rate/index.html

 

[Con]

Nestle is closing an infant formula plant that makes products exclusively for the Asian market.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/business-food/nestle-infant-formula-china-birth-rate/index.html

I don't analyze populations but when you cut the birthrate in half in just 7 years, that can't be good.

 

[Go Bama]

I don't analyze populations but when you cut the birthrate in half in just 7 years, that can't be good.

Ironically, the one child only ban was lifted on January 1, 2016.

 

[Tidewater]

I don't analyze populations but when you cut the birthrate in half in just 7 years, that can't be good.

Communism's greatest achievement: convincing humans not to procreate.

 

[JDCrimson]

FIFY

Republicans' greatest achievement: convincing humans not to procreate.