I agree...they will imprison or kill a million or so and it will not matter one bit to Xi or his cronies. Now, may they implode over the next 5 years? I would say yes...but don't count on anything happening quickly.I really doubt China falls apart. There's way too many yes men in the line of command at every level. Even if there's a leadership toppling, there's still millions of support people who's livelyhood depend on the power structure in place. I think it would be more like Romania where the top gets replaced, but the cancer is still alive and well and just grows a new head.
The problem with an authoritarian antidemocratic dictatorship is that it by definition closes the pressure relief valves a democracy holds open.I agree...they will imprison or kill a million or so and it will not matter one bit to Xi or his cronies. Now, may they implode over the next 5 years? I would say yes...but don't count on anything happening quickly.
You are precisely correct...when you can express your view, even if you lose, you feel better. I saw that in Baptist church life -- congregational authority -- time and again.The problem with an authoritarian antidemocratic dictatorship is the is by definition closes the pressure relief valves a democracy holds open.
Democracy is bumpy, chaotic, and messy, but it is more stable in the long run than an authoritarian antidemocratic dictatorship.
This could not happen to a more deserving bunch of guys.
That said, China and Russia are monuments to what a government can get away with if it can control the people's access to information.
And yet the public admission by Trump’s first CoS that just after the election they briefly considered trying to do away with the first amendment didn’t cost him any support; evangelicals made him come up with other ways to muzzle the press (disinformation and lies) and break up peaceful protests (gassing the peaceful for a photo op).The problem with an authoritarian antidemocratic dictatorship is the is by definition closes the pressure relief valves a democracy holds open.
Democracy is bumpy, chaotic, and messy, but it is more stable in the long run than an authoritarian antidemocratic dictatorship.
This could not happen to a more deserving bunch of guys.
That said, China and Russia are monuments to what a government can get away with if it can control the people's access to information.
Finally, someone in Washington treats China like the analog to Germany or Japan in the mid-to-late 1930s. China is precisely that. I do not want to make enemies of the Chinese. I want their government to pause at the brink of the abyss and ponder where they are and whither they are going.Good information here on the decision to limit Chinese access to our top semi-conductor chips...
Circuit Breaker
Why is the U.S. banning semiconductor-chip exports to China? Chris Miller on Washington’s new strategy to protect its military advantage and hobble Beijing’s.www.thesgnl.com
Only problem here - and my experience with the Chinese differs from yours greatly, I’m sure - is that the Chinese feel entitled to what they want; they are not above giving the proverbial finger to anyone who doesn’t agree with that, and in some cases will go much further to destroy any obstacle to their desire.Finally, someone in Washington treats China like the analog to Germany or Japan in the mid-to-late 1930s. China is precisely that. I do not want to make enemies of the Chinese. I want their government to pause at the brink of the abyss and ponder where they are and whither they are going.
I've been following him a fair amount lately, and signed up for his newsletter. He is a smart guy and has an impressively wide range of knowledge and information. He's especially good on global trade and finance. He sometimes gets out of his lane by trying to make pronouncements on things that I suspect are outside his expertise, like climate change or like military strategy in Ukraine. I've followed the Ukraine conflict closely, and I think that may be one topic where I know about as much as Zeihan. On that one I've found his analysis to be simplistic and unhelpful. But overall he's worth having in your information queue.I saw this earlier, didn't know where it would fit, so left it alone. I'm glad CA posted it.
I've started looking for Zeihan's videos. The guy is in Colorado today, DC yesterday, Ukraine last week, Antartica next week. As Herschel would say, "He worl wye."
It's hard for me to buy into Russia and China both falling apart at the same time. I agree with TW, I hope he's right.