1999 - 19-9, 3.57 ERA
The 1999 Atlanta Braves had the best record in baseball (103-59).
Greg Maddux turned 33 years old early in the 1999 season, an important benchmark NORMALLY in assessing a player's career decline phase. There ARE exceptions - Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan are two - but the decline phase starts at 32 and can (if your name is Andruw Jones) begin even earlier. It can be rapid or slow - but it is inevitable. In 1999, Greg Maddux was STILL one of the best pitchers in baseball; he was just no longer the undisputed king in the NL. In fact, in 1999 - at least as far as the stats reveal - it can be argued that he wasn't even the best pitcher in his own clubhouse.
Maybe.
Maddux's ERA skyrocketed (for him), more than twice as high as his peak years (1994-95). It could have been disastrous for his record - but he finally got some run support.
Amazingly, Maddux still finished third in the NL in wins behind two Astros pitchers, Mike Hampton and Jose Lima. Yes, he won more games than CYA winner Randy Johnson, but the Big Unit had an ERA well over a run lower than Maddux did.
April 11 - a familiar pattern unfolds. Maddux is pulled after 8 innings trailing, 2-1, and the Braves rally to win, 3-2, when Arizona's bullpen collapses. There would be no shame in trailing Randy Johnson, 2-1, but this was Todd Stottlemyre.
April 18 - Maddux gives up 4 runs in 6 innings....but he wins when the Braves offense explodes for 20 runs off of six Colorado pitchers; it should be noted that Atlanta only scored NINE runs for Maddux and erupted for a 10-run ninth inning.
April 24 - Maddux gives up six runs in five innings thanks to 4 Atlanta errors, but the Braves score eight for him, and he escapes with a win.
May 4 - Maddux gets rocked for a 6-run second inning, 8 runs in only 4.1 innings and loses, 9-1
May 9 - Maddux gets 0 run support and gives up 4 ER (5 total) in a loss to Sterling Hitchcock and the Padres
May 15 - Maddux goes 7 innings and get rocked for 14 hits and 5 runs in a 5-1 loss to the Cubs.
May 20 - Maddux gets hit early for 5 runs but finds his groove, pulled when trailing, 5-4, after 7. The Braves lose to the Cubs, 6-5, on an error in the 12th.
After 10 starts in 1999, Maddux is 4-3, 5.02 ERA, given up 7 home runs and an astonishing 88 hits in 57.1 IP. To put it mildly, Maddux looks like almost any Braves starter from the 70s-80s.
May 25 - the old Maddux returns, both pitching and luck. Pulled after 7 with a 2-0 lead having pitched just a cut below his peak, the Atlanta bullpen holds the lead for only three hitters. The Braves win late, but Maddux is denied the decision.
May 30 - Maddux goes 7 and is pulled trailing, 4-1, but the Braves rally to tie it only to lose in 11.
June 5 - Maddux goes 8 innings and gives up 5 runs...but the Braves bail him out with a run in the top of the 9th and John Rocker holds on for the win for Maddux and his own save.
June 11 - Maddux takes a 1-0 lead into the sixth and gets bombed for 5 runs en route to a 6-2 loss to the Orioles
June 16 - the old Maddux is back, striking out 10 in only 6.2 innings and giving up only three hits in a 3-1 win over the Astros
For his next four starts, Maddux hit his stride: 4-0, 0.64 ERA, 28 IP, 2 ER, 7 BB, 14 K.
July 16 - the Yankees tear into Maddux for 5 runs in 3 IP, and he leaves trailing, 5-3. Atlanta rallies and drills El Dugue (Orlando Hernandez) and Ramiro Mendoza for 7 runs en route to a 10-7 win. Maddux is bailed out by a powerful offense.
July 21 - Maddux pitches one of his best games of the year, going the distance - and losing, 2-0. But Dennis Springer of the Marlins also went the distance and did better.
For his next 8 starts: 8-0, 2.84 ERA, 57 IP, 6 BB, 41 Ks
September 12 - Maddux goes five innings and gives up six runs (5 ER) in an 8-4 loss to the Giants, ending his winning streak
September 18 - Maddux goes the distance and scatters 8 hits - but THREE Atlanta errors give Montreal a 4-3 win and Maddux his 8th loss
September 29 - with the pennant clinched, Maddux takes a 2-1 lead into the 4th only to get waxed for seven runs, 4 on a grand slam by John Olerud in a 7-2 Mets triumph.
========================
Maddux was still a VERY GOOD pitcher in 1999, he just wasn't the Maddux of old. We should note that using one of Bill James's many theorems, Maddux SHOULD have had a record - based on his ERA and run support - of 16-8, meaning he OUTPITCHED his statistics even in 1999.
The following STARTING NL pitchers were - without question - better than Maddux at least in terms of on the mound accomplishment in 1999:
Randy Johnson
Kevin Brown
Kevin Millwood
Mike Hampton
He was about equal with Curt Schilling and John Smoltz this particular year, and though his record was worse, you would still have chosen him over Jose Lima and Russ Ortiz.
In the American League, Pedro Martinez (23-4, 2.07) is about where Maddux was in 1994-95.
He's about even with Mike Mussina in the AL.
Todd Ritchie (Pittsburgh) had one helluva fluke year that he never replicated. So did Omar Daal (Arizona) who had only one other year remotely close to his 1999. So taken in ALL OF BASEBALL, Maddux - despite a pretty horrid year by his standards - is still on his worst day one of the ten best pitchers in the game (admittedly not at Pedro level at this point).
WHAT DID THE ATLANTA BRAVES DO WELL IN 1999?
Okay, so you look at the pitching stats and other than Kevin Millwood, the Braves's mound staff was not even close to what it was just two years earlier. Maddux won the most games, Millwood was best overall, and Tom Glavine's ERA was 4.12....yet the Braves had the best record in baseball. How?
1) The Braves played situational baseball very well.
The Braves were below average - or at best slightly above - in nearly every offensive category. But they got a lot of doubles (5th in the league), were 4th in the NL in homers, they didn't strike out as often as other teams, and they didn't leave as many runners on base as most teams - and they bunted well.
2) Team speed
They had FIVE PLAYERS who could steal bases reasonably well and not leave that to one speedster. Brian Jordan, Brett Boone, Chipper, Andruw, and Gerald Williams. Unlike virtually every other team in the league, the Braves ran smartly aggressively - and didn't wait for the three-run Steroid Era bomb, although they had four guys who surpassed 20 bombs. Oh, and Otis Nixon stole 26 as a part-time player at age 40.
3) The pitching staff's ERA was more than one run below the league average.
The staff, top to bottom, had a 3.63 ERA, just slightly higher than Maddux for the year. But the AVERAGE in baseball was 4.70 thanks to the juicers and only 4 teams (Atlanta, Arizona, Cincy, Houston) had team ERAs below 4.00. Despite Maddux's regression, the overall pitching staff was still the best in the game. They struck out a lot of guys and didn't walk many. They were also very good at avoiding self-destructive acts like wild pitches and balks. One out of every ten walks Braves hurlers issued in 1999 was intentional (55 out of 507).
4) The Braves led all of baseball in putouts and were below league average in errors.
The Braves had 4413 putouts - 492 of which were run down by Andruw Jones in centerfield. The Braves did not get the ink the Mets did over their incredibly low error total (68 in 162 games), but Atlanta's approach was simple in 1999 - we have a decent offense and a pretty decent pitching staff; don't walk anybody, and if you put the ball in play, you have a vacuum cleaner at short (Weiss) and a superstar in centerfield to run it down. If we give up a few runs, we have a team good enough to come back and win, especially since we can steal a base with more than half the starting lineup and Otis if we really need it.
5) John Rocker
Yeah, I know it hurts to say, but this was BEFORE his racist remarks, so we had no idea. (I'd be willing to spot him grace now and just say he was a dumb 24-year-old except he continues). Rocker was by no means Mariano Rivera, but he was damn good. Rocker converted 38 save opportunities - only one off the then Atlanta record set by Wohlers in 1996 - so it was close to "lights out" when he came in with a lead. Rocker was fourth in the NL in saves - and two of the three above him are now in the Hall (Hoffman and Wagner).
In short, despite not having the eye-popping numbers of 1991-98 on the hill, the Braves were still the best pitching staff in baseball at the end of the decade.
