Playoff Predictor scenarios

[JohnD]

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.

www.espn.com

We beat Georgia, Louisville beats FSU....other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State
Probability that those picks are all correct - 8%

We beat Georgia, all other favorites win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%
Probability that those picks are correct - 22%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 99%
3. Oregon - 98%
4. Bama - 81%
5. Ohio State - 12%
Probability that those picks are correct - 3%

We beat Georgia, OSU upsets Texas, Louisville upsets FSU:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Alabama - 95%
4. Ohio State - 46%
5. Georgia - 46%
Probability that those picks are correct - <1%

Basically, besides the obvious of beating Georgia......we absolutely need Louisville to beat FSU.

You left out my dream top 6:
1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Washington
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State

Michigan-Washinton in the Rose Bowl, Texas-Alabama in the Sugar.

 

[TideEngineer08]

You left out my dream top 6:
1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Washington
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State

Michigan-Washinton in the Rose Bowl, Texas-Alabama in the Sugar.

That would be a great, nostalgic set up.

 

[CB4]

Maybe. I guess we will all just have to wait and see. I'll pull for the Cardinals regardless, however.

It would not totally shock me if OK State beat Texas, but Texas really should plaster them. And they should not be ranked at all. Yet another head scratcher by this committee. This is a team that lost, convincingly, to South Alabama and Central Florida.

Yeah old “I’m a man, I’m Forty Gumby Dammit” Okie Lite is the definition of schizophrenic. You beat Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma and lose in conference to Iowa State and destroyed by Central Florida and get wasted out of conference by South Alabama? And truthfully, outside of the win against Bama, Texas hasn’t exactly looked like world beaters at times. If the best Texas and the worst Okie Lite shows up, it’s a mauling. If OSU brings its Oklahoma game type play and Texas plays down like they did against Houston and others, it could be interesting.

 

[Bruce014]

The committee used to say that they completely re-rank all 25 teams each week. Have they maintained that fiction?

It would be good if they actually did so because Fla State was clearly not the number 4 or 5 team in the country on Saturday. They did everything they could to let Florida win, but Florida was having none of it.

 

[CB4]

I heard Boo “Pinocchio” Corrigan say the committee members watch “all the games”. Uhhh….yeah right.
They have someone send them cut ups or highlights, then go back to playing Wordle on their IPad.

 

[Cruloc]

I heard Boo “Pinocchio” Corrigan say the committee members watch “all the games”. Uhhh….yeah right.
They have someone send them cut ups or highlights, then go back to playing Wordle on their IPad.

There's no way they watch all the games, too many athletic directors handling politics to have time to sit and watch games.

The committee is sham, its too subjective and too political.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

You left out my dream top 6:
1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Washington
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State

Michigan-Washinton in the Rose Bowl, Texas-Alabama in the Sugar.

That would be pretty cool.

I got confused along the way and for some reason thought the Sugar Bowl was part of the NY6 this year.

But no it's the Peach Bowl that gets a possible Bama/UGA vs Tulane matchup.

The SEC #2 is also eligible to be picked for either the Orange or Fiesta I believe.

Let's hope that's UGA's problem and we get your Dream selections.

 

[B1GTide]

As expected Alabama still at 8th going into the conference championships. FSU at 4. The committee is making it clear - Alabama still needs help to get in.

 

[CB4]

Lol They are actually discussing “even if Alabama somehow beats Georgia, how do you not keep Georgia in the Top 4?”

Wait. The rationale for keeping Texas ahead of Alabama was “head to head”. Now, if Alabama beats Georgia, then head to head doesn’t matter?

 

[CrimsonBloodn62]

As expected Alabama still at 8th going into the conference championships. FSU at 4. The committee is making it clear - Alabama still needs help to get in.

With this stupid committee, it's not about the four best teams; it's about who is undefeated. The one lose team that stands a chance to make it is Oregon. Texas and us are screwed if FSU wins Saturday.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

When discussing Oregon Boo Corrigan basically said margin of victory trumps SOS. So i guess if a team could schedule 12 cupcakes, have an average margin of victory of 35-40 points they could make the playoff.

 

[Cruloc]

Seems to be what I figured it would be. Wasn't sure if they'd swap OSU and Texas.

Pac 12 game is Friday night, we'll have 1 team there.

Big 12 game is right before ours, we'll know about Texas.

ACC game is after ours. We'll either care deeply about Louisville winning or we won't bother watching.

 

[Cruloc]

I particularly like the argument of margin of victory trumping strength of schedule. That's laughable and makes sure no one should schedule tough OOC again.

 

[CB4]

When discussing Oregon Boo Corrigan basically said margin of victory trumps SOS. So i guess if a team could schedule 12 cupcakes, have an average margin of victory of 35-40 points they could make the playoff.

Yeah but when asked about margin of victory among common opponents (Texas Tech for both Oregon and Texas) and Texas having a better SoS plus beating Tech by 50 while Oregon won by only 8, Corrigan stated “that Oregon was ranked ahead because of the “close loss” to Washington.
Sorry. Texas should be the top ranked one loss team.

 

[denver]

When discussing Oregon Boo Corrigan basically said margin of victory trumps SOS. So i guess if a team could schedule 12 cupcakes, have an average margin of victory of 35-40 points they could make the playoff.

Just more evidence that this committee has no clue what they are doing...contradicted themselves many times and seem to have no idea of conference strength. UO best win is OreSt and they have no wins of note...

 

[Cruloc]

Yeah but when asked about margin of victory among common opponents (Texas Tech for both Oregon and Texas) and Texas having a better SoS plus beating Tech by 50 while Oregon won by only 8, Corrigan stated “that Oregon was ranked ahead because of the “close loss” to Washington.
Sorry. Texas should be the top ranked one loss team.

They are holding different criteria for different teams. Each team is basically lined up for a FG with some having the goalposts moving more than others.

 

[CB4]

Boo Corrigan looked like he had been on a two week bender tonight on ESPN.

 

[B1GTide]

They are holding different criteria for different teams. Each team is basically lined up for a FG with some having the goalposts moving more than others.

No, they are lying. The story only changes like this when you are lying. This clown answering questions is lying.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

Jmo but Texas and tOSU both should be ranked higher than Oregon.

I think a case could be made for Bama to be ahead of them as well.

The PAC is ridiculous overrated.

 

[countrytider]

Guys I am pretty much prepared to be left out. I am prepared to celebrate a great season, an Iron Bowl win in JH for the ages, an SEC championship (hopefully), and a chance to knock GA out of the playoffs killing their three-peat bid.

Everything else is out of our control. I hope and pray we get in, but if the season goes just as stated above and we get left out, so be it.

Roll Tide