JessN: Rating The Units: A New Era in the SEC

[JessN]

Rating The Units: A New Era in the SEC
by Jess Nicholas, TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief

You’ve heard sportscasters use the phrase “throw out the record books” for years when discussing upcoming matchups which, allegedly, are bigger than they’ve ever been before, thus relegating past comparisons to the dustbin.

In this case, it holds true.

The Southeastern Conference will move from 14 to 16 teams for 2024 and more importantly, will jettison the divisional concept that has been employed since 1992. In doing so, for the first time in TideFans.com’s 28-year history, our method of plotting teams against each other for analytical purposes will change.

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Rating The Units: A New Era in the SEC

You’ve heard sportscasters use the phrase “throw out the record books” for years when discussing upcoming matchups which, allegedly, are bigger than they’ve ever been before, thus releg…

news.tidefans.com

 

[bamafaninbham]

Great read. Thank you.

 

[Ledsteplin]

Thanks, Jess, for putting this together. Many, including Yahoo Sports, have Alabama's offensive line ranked #1 in the nation for 2024. But you have them 13 in the SEC, behind Georgia, Texas, and LSU. Interesting.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

What does the "Fr" rating mean?

 

[Ledsteplin]

What does the "Fr" rating mean?

Fair.

 

[stlimprov]

Thanks, Jess, for putting this together. Many, including Yahoo Sports, have Alabama's offensive line ranked #1 in the nation for 2024. But you have them 13 in the SEC, behind Georgia, Texas, and LSU. Interesting.

That 13 is points, which would actually have them ranked 4th in the SEC,

 

[OakMtn4Bama]

Thanks as always, Jess for all that you do!

 

[CoolBreeze]

A lot of work on that Jess, I know. Great stuff and THANK YOU!

 

[Ledsteplin]

That 13 is points, which would actually have them ranked 4th in the SEC,

Yes. That's how Jess did it. I didn't say ranked 13th. Point being behind 3 other SEC teams.

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Yes. That's how Jess did it. I didn't say ranked 13th. Point being behind 3 other SEC teams.

Jess puts a ton of work into his rankings and I know we all appreciate them. But you can find several other analysts who believe Bama will have the #1 OL not only in the SEC but in the country. But the true test is when the season starts. Remember last season we were supposed to have a dominant OL and for the most part, that wasn't the case. They show flashes of dominance but it never was a season-long performance.

My hope is the season plays out to fall in line with the preseason hype and many believe we will have one of, if not, the best OL in the country. We'll see...

 

[Ledsteplin]

Jess puts a ton of work into his rankings and I know we all appreciate them. But you can find several other analysts who believe Bama will have the #1 OL not only in the SEC but in the country. But the true test is when the season starts. Remember last season we were supposed to have a dominant OL and for the most part, that wasn't the case. They show flashes of dominance but it never was a season-long performance.

My hope is the season plays out to fall in line with the preseason hype and many believe we will have one of, if not, the best OL in the country. We'll see...

I certainly hope it's not like last year. I think Kapilovic will do a much better job coaching, than what we have seen in several years. I didn't disagree with Jess. I just thought it interesting.

 

[Bazza]

If Florida only gets 4 wins this season per Jess's calculator, I agree Napier will be gone.

Just shooting from the hip......if he had brought in a good play caller to help with the offense.....I think he would have had winning seasons from his 1st year on. Florida is loaded with talent and when games are lost unfortunately the blame is laid at the defense and/or Oline.

I just don't see it that way at all.

Anyway......I'm really looking forward to college football and appreciate the platform we have for our conversations.

Thanks, Jess!

 

[BamaNation]

Game time!... in ... 2 weeks!

ARRGH. I'm ready and pumped for the new era. Hate waiting.

Thanks for the previews, @JessN !

When I read the " In doing so, for the first time in TideFans.com’s 28-year history, our method of plotting teams against each other for analytical purposes will change...." I literally almost had a tear in my eye.

I reflected back to where I was and what I was doing (sitting in my WTC Marriott hotel room) when you and I were part of a relatively small Listserv group and you were posting previews and reviews and I asked something to the effect of ... "Hey, I've got this little webpage on AOL called BamaNation that I would like to put your articles on... Do you mind if I do that? " and you graciously acquiesced.

Here we are 28 years later and you're still the trusted and go-to source minimizing the hype and still bringing it as you see it. EXACTLY what we've always appreciated here.

Thanks again !

RTR!

 

[Rocky Mtn Bob]

From Jess' piece:

First of all, here is our preseason prediction for the 2024 SEC season:

1	Georgia	12-0	8-0
2	Ole Miss	11-1	7-1
3	Texas	10-2	7-1
4	Texas A&M	10-2	7-1
5	Alabama	10-2	6-2
6 (tie)	Tennessee	10-2	6-2
(tie)	Missouri	10-2	6-2
8	LSU	9-3	5-3

9	Auburn	8-4	4-4
10 (tie)	Kentucky	6-6	2-6
(tie)	Oklahoma	6-6	2-6
12	Florida	4-8	2-6
13 (tie)	Mississippi State	5-7	1-7
(tie)	South Carolina	4-8	1-7
15 (tie)	Arkansas	3-9	0-8
(tie)	Vanderbilt	3-9	0-8

1. This is going to be one captivating season in the SEC. Can't wait!

2. I don't have the bandwidth (or time) to do my own analysis, but THREE teams ahead of Bama??? Wow. I'm not arguing against you, Jess; I'm simply surprised. I'll be very interested to see if A&M is really that solid.

3. Seeing Missouri, Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas as far down on the list in Jess' predictions ... each is surprising.

4. Will Vandy EVER be a strong SEC team? I feel sorry for them.

 

[JessN]

Jess puts a ton of work into his rankings and I know we all appreciate them. But you can find several other analysts who believe Bama will have the #1 OL not only in the SEC but in the country. But the true test is when the season starts. Remember last season we were supposed to have a dominant OL and for the most part, that wasn't the case. They show flashes of dominance but it never was a season-long performance.

My hope is the season plays out to fall in line with the preseason hype and many believe we will have one of, if not, the best OL in the country. We'll see...

There are a couple of reasons I do not have us this high and it bears restating every few years that there's a difference between rating the starters and rating the units. We take into account depth down through the second and sometimes third teams, depending on the unit (usually second team at OL, third team at WR/RB, etc.).

If you were rating Alabama's starting OL right now, it has a freshman on it (Wilkin Formby). I believe Formby will be a very good player in time, but if the best OL in the country has a freshman starting on it plus a LT who by all accounts underachieved badly in his first year, I would wonder about the general state of collegiate OL. However, I think most are expecting big things from Proctor, and Bama should be able to get either Formby or Elijah Pritchett to play well enough at RT.

But moving to a discussion of depth, right now, Alabama has a potential issue at second-team center and the guard spots. UA brought in Geno VanDeMark from Michigan State with the intention of him being second-team center and supplement depth at guard, but he's been playing guard almost exclusively. Olaus Alinen may be banged up, and I'm not sure what the story is with Roq Montgomery. Second-team center right now is a true freshman, Joe Ionata, who had a few bad snaps at A-Day and again in the scrimmage Aug. 17. And the most interesting depth-chart-related news item of the fall, to me, is that a rumor is going around that one of our walk-on true freshmen, Wade Estess, was running with the 2s this week.

in other words, I think we need to pump the brakes on "best OL" either in the conference or the country until we see some results.

From Jess' piece:


2. I don't have the bandwidth (or time) to do my own analysis, but THREE teams ahead of Bama??? Wow. I'm not arguing against you, Jess; I'm simply surprised. I'll be very interested to see if A&M is really that solid.

The biggest reason for "undervaluing" Bama, as it were, is that typically a coaching change can result in several games going against predictive analytics, both plus and minus. There's also something I refer to as the "system tax" that says you lose at least one extra SEC game for changing either the offensive or defensive systems, and Bama is changing both. The SEC is both top- and bottom-heavy in 2024 and Alabama plays a lot of teams in the top half, and when it's all sort of that close together, first-year drama sometimes hits.

 

[Ledsteplin]

There are a couple of reasons I do not have us this high and it bears restating every few years that there's a difference between rating the starters and rating the units. We take into account depth down through the second and sometimes third teams, depending on the unit (usually second team at OL, third team at WR/RB, etc.).

If you were rating Alabama's starting OL right now, it has a freshman on it (Wilkin Formby). I believe Formby will be a very good player in time, but if the best OL in the country has a freshman starting on it plus a LT who by all accounts underachieved badly in his first year, I would wonder about the general state of collegiate OL. However, I think most are expecting big things from Proctor, and Bama should be able to get either Formby or Elijah Pritchett to play well enough at RT.

But moving to a discussion of depth, right now, Alabama has a potential issue at second-team center and the guard spots. UA brought in Geno VanDeMark from Michigan State with the intention of him being second-team center and supplement depth at guard, but he's been playing guard almost exclusively. Olaus Alinen may be banged up, and I'm not sure what the story is with Roq Montgomery. Second-team center right now is a true freshman, Joe Ionata, who had a few bad snaps at A-Day and again in the scrimmage Aug. 17. And the most interesting depth-chart-related news item of the fall, to me, is that a rumor is going around that one of our walk-on true freshmen, Wade Estess, was running with the 2s this week.

in other words, I think we need to pump the brakes on "best OL" either in the conference or the country until we see some results.




The biggest reason for "undervaluing" Bama, as it were, is that typically a coaching change can result in several games going against predictive analytics, both plus and minus. There's also something I refer to as the "system tax" that says you lose at least one extra SEC game for changing either the offensive or defensive systems, and Bama is changing both. The SEC is both top- and bottom-heavy in 2024 and Alabama plays a lot of teams in the top half, and when it's all sort of that close together, first-year drama sometimes hits.

Wilkin Formby is not a freshman. He's a Redshirt Freshman. He played in 3 games last year and practiced with the team. He and Pritchett are virtually tied for RT. Kapilovic said they both are playing well. And said he will play both, until a winner emerges.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

There are a couple of reasons I do not have us this high and it bears restating every few years that there's a difference between rating the starters and rating the units. We take into account depth down through the second and sometimes third teams, depending on the unit (usually second team at OL, third team at WR/RB, etc.).

If you were rating Alabama's starting OL right now, it has a freshman on it (Wilkin Formby). I believe Formby will be a very good player in time, but if the best OL in the country has a freshman starting on it plus a LT who by all accounts underachieved badly in his first year, I would wonder about the general state of collegiate OL. However, I think most are expecting big things from Proctor, and Bama should be able to get either Formby or Elijah Pritchett to play well enough at RT.

But moving to a discussion of depth, right now, Alabama has a potential issue at second-team center and the guard spots. UA brought in Geno VanDeMark from Michigan State with the intention of him being second-team center and supplement depth at guard, but he's been playing guard almost exclusively. Olaus Alinen may be banged up, and I'm not sure what the story is with Roq Montgomery. Second-team center right now is a true freshman, Joe Ionata, who had a few bad snaps at A-Day and again in the scrimmage Aug. 17. And the most interesting depth-chart-related news item of the fall, to me, is that a rumor is going around that one of our walk-on true freshmen, Wade Estess, was running with the 2s this week.

in other words, I think we need to pump the brakes on "best OL" either in the conference or the country until we see some results.




The biggest reason for "undervaluing" Bama, as it were, is that typically a coaching change can result in several games going against predictive analytics, both plus and minus. There's also something I refer to as the "system tax" that says you lose at least one extra SEC game for changing either the offensive or defensive systems, and Bama is changing both. The SEC is both top- and bottom-heavy in 2024 and Alabama plays a lot of teams in the top half, and when it's all sort of that close together, first-year drama sometimes hits.

Wow! So our best backup center is a true freshman walk-on? That's a bit of a concern...unless that dude was a true gem that slipped under EVERYONE'S radar...

 

[Bamabuzzard]

There are a couple of reasons I do not have us this high and it bears restating every few years that there's a difference between rating the starters and rating the units. We take into account depth down through the second and sometimes third teams, depending on the unit (usually second team at OL, third team at WR/RB, etc.).

If you were rating Alabama's starting OL right now, it has a freshman on it (Wilkin Formby). I believe Formby will be a very good player in time, but if the best OL in the country has a freshman starting on it plus a LT who by all accounts underachieved badly in his first year, I would wonder about the general state of collegiate OL. However, I think most are expecting big things from Proctor, and Bama should be able to get either Formby or Elijah Pritchett to play well enough at RT.

But moving to a discussion of depth, right now, Alabama has a potential issue at second-team center and the guard spots. UA brought in Geno VanDeMark from Michigan State with the intention of him being second-team center and supplement depth at guard, but he's been playing guard almost exclusively. Olaus Alinen may be banged up, and I'm not sure what the story is with Roq Montgomery. Second-team center right now is a true freshman, Joe Ionata, who had a few bad snaps at A-Day and again in the scrimmage Aug. 17. And the most interesting depth-chart-related news item of the fall, to me, is that a rumor is going around that one of our walk-on true freshmen, Wade Estess, was running with the 2s this week.

in other words, I think we need to pump the brakes on "best OL" either in the conference or the country until we see some results.




The biggest reason for "undervaluing" Bama, as it were, is that typically a coaching change can result in several games going against predictive analytics, both plus and minus. There's also something I refer to as the "system tax" that says you lose at least one extra SEC game for changing either the offensive or defensive systems, and Bama is changing both. The SEC is both top- and bottom-heavy in 2024 and Alabama plays a lot of teams in the top half, and when it's all sort of that close together, first-year drama sometimes hits.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing with your assessment. I'm just letting the poster know that if he disagreed there are analysts who have a slightly different take on the Bama OL this season.

 

[JessN]

Wilkin Formby is not a freshman. He's a Redshirt Freshman. He played in 3 games last year and practiced with the team. He and Pritchett are virtually tied for RT. Kapilovic said they both are playing well. And said he will play both, until a winner emerges.

I'm fully aware he's a redshirt freshman. That meant he got 4 or fewer live-game opportunities last year. There's no world in which that level of experience means a definitive advantage for a redshirt freshman versus a true freshman; they're both still freshmen. The biggest advantage Formby has over a true freshman in that extra year is he got a chance to be a part of a college weight training program, but even that's a little tilted for some of our OL this year because we have a completely different mindset on what we want out of our linemen size-wize. Last year, Proctor was instructed to put on way too much weight for his frame. On top of that, Formby was slotted behind Miles McVay for a large portion of the year (McVay was the guy who replaced an injured Latham for a few plays in Knoxville) in large part due to the last staff's preference for McVay's massive build. This staff wants something very different, so our S&C has been on sort of a yo-yo over the past 12-16 months.

And finally, "tied with Pritchett" is really only a good thing if Kapilovic proves to be accurate in his assessment that Pritchett is playing well, because Pritchett struggled all of last year and a good bit of this spring. I've heard Kap has liked Formby since first getting here because of Formby's mental makeup and work ethic, which means he should certainly have the potential to play above a typical freshman's ability, but he has no resume yet. Garbage snaps in four games doesn't mean much.