Russia Invades Ukraine IX

[TIDE-HSV]

The D-30 is a venerable old Soviet cannon. Less range than the 152mm cannon, and packs a smaller punch, but the Soviets made a bunch of them. Not sure about the ammo.
When I was in the Army, we went to Guernsey, Wyo. (National Guard training installation) and fired some 81mm illum rounds. That charge cards (tells you how much powder to use at which elevation to hit a target at a various ranges) were dated 1945. The rounds all fired but the illumination was yellow, not white.

I wish I could remember where I read it, probably a sign I'm reading too much about it. I think it said these guns harked all the way back to WWII. As an old reloader, I can testify that propellant doesn't last indefinitely...

 

[Tidewater]

I wish I could remember where I read it, probably a sign I'm reading too much about it. I think it said these guns harked all the way back to WWII. As an old reloader, I can testify that propellant doesn't last indefinitely...

My father (God rest his soul) was a chemical engineer. Fresh out of Virginia Tech, he got a job at Radford Arsenal, where they make nitroglycerin to this day.
They used large sums of some chemical to make their explosives. This chemical self-catalyzes. When it breaks down, the resulting chemical accelerate the break-down process. They stored this stuff in 55 gallon drums in bunkers, hollow concrete cubes with earth piled up around the sides and a plexiglas roof. Young Mr. Tidewater's job was go to into these bunkers filled with 55 gallon drums, dip the test paper into the solution. If it stayed blue, it was good to go. If the test paper turned red, they very carefully backed out of the bunker, got a bulldozer, piled dirt up against the door and waited until solution had self-catalyzed enough until it blew up. Then they cleaned out the bunker and put a new plexiglas roof on it.

I'm not sure that was OSHA compliant.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My father (God rest his soul) was a chemical engineer. Fresh out of Virginia Tech, he got a job at Radford Arsenal, where they make nitroglycerin to this day.
They used large sums of some chemical to make their explosives. This chemical self-catalyzes. When it breaks down, the resulting chemical accelerate the break-down process. They stored this stuff in 55 gallon drums in bunkers, hollow concrete cubes with earth piled up around the sides and a plexiglas roof. Young Mr. Tidewater's job was go to into these bunkers filled with 55 gallon drums, dip the test paper into the solution. If it stayed blue, it was good to go. If the test paper turned red, they very carefully backed out of the bunker, got a bulldozer, piled dirt up against the door and waited until solution had self-catalyzed enough until it blew up. Then they cleaned out the bunker and put a new plexiglas roof on it.

I'm not sure that was OSHA compliant.

How long before it blew? Of course, the problem with the shells seems to be the opposite. Back in my deer hunting days, I had a muzzle loader. Still have it somewhere. There was an extended muzzle-loader open season. It used black powder, of course - potassium nitrate, sulfur and carbon. One time, I neglected the rather arduous cleaning process for a few days. The next time I looked at it, the residue had just eaten the barrel up. I could never get all the rust out...

 

[Tidewater]

How long before it blew?

It varied. It depends on how far gone the solution was in the self-catalyzing process.
Once it got to a certain point, the solution could no longer be moved and it had to be left to in place to blow it.
Ironically, when I was teaching at Va Tech myself, we used to take cadets to the same facility for field training. (I do not think they still use the "let it explode on its own" technique, but the old bunkers are still there, with plexiglas roofs.)

 

[TIDE-HSV]

It varied. It depends on how far gone the solution was in the self-catalyzing process.
Once it got to a certain point, the solution could no longer be moved and it had to be left to in place to blow it.
Ironically, when I was teaching at Va Tech myself, we used to take cadets to the same facility for field training. (I do not think they still use the "let it explode on its own" technique, but the old bunkers are still there, with plexiglas roofs.)

It makes a good story. From somewhere back in the recesses of my brain, I remembered that aged nitro couldn't even be jostled without going off...

 

[Tidewater]

Back onto topic, I believe that the front lines will stabilize where they are now, and the pressure will build in Europe to broker a deal that will provide an excuse for the relaxing of the sanctions.
The Belgian government just announced that they will be paying every resident €100 to offset the increase in the price of gasoline. Further, residents are to get a check for €200 if they used fuel oil to heat they houses. Thus, I am due €300 due to the war. €300 x 4.7 million households = €1.4B.
Think the Belgian government wants the sanctions to end?
The President of France, the Italian Prime Minster and the German Kanzler were in Ukraine today.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Back onto topic, I believe that the front lines will stabilize where they are now, and the pressure will build in Europe to broker a deal that will provide an excuse for the relaxing of the sanctions.
The Belgian government just announced that they will be paying every resident €100 to offset the increase in the price of gasoline. Further, residents are to bet a check for €200 if they used fuel oil to heat they houses. Thus, I am due €300 due to the war. €300 x 4.7 million households = €1.3B.
Think the Belgian government wants the sanctions to end?
The President of France, the Italian Prime Minster and the German Kanzler were in Ukraine today.

The public posture was that Ukraine should be able to win. However, the aid announced by those three is a drop in the bucket, compared to the US. We announced another billion, but it only included twelve howitzers. I do not understand...

 

[Bamaro]

It makes a good story. From somewhere back in the recesses of my brain, I remembered that aged nitro couldn't even be jostled without going off...

Yup, that's how Nobel got rich inventing a safe way to use nitro by inventing dynamite.

 

[Tidewater]

In DPR, Wednesday Denis Bushilin reshuffling the cabinet to include ex-Russian officials brought in as DNR cabinet ministers. former Russian Industry and Trade Ministry department head Vitaly Khotsenko as the head of the breakaway region's so-called Council of Ministers. Yevgeny Solntsev had served as adviser to Russia's Construction, Housing and Utilities Minister, while Alexander Kostomarov was deputy governor of western Russia's Lipetsk and Ulyanovsk regions. Pushilin said the new executive team faces a "broad range" of tasks, including post-war reconstruction and "integration" with Russia.
Russian Officials Take Office in Separatist Eastern Ukraine

Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Lugansk People’s Republic, on Thursday appointed ex-Deputy Governor of Russia’s Kurgan Region Vladislav Kuznetsov First Deputy Chairman of the LPR’s government.

Kremlin respects DPR leader’s decision to reshuffle republic’s government

This may be a prelude to annexation.

Annexation may include only LPR and DPR, or it may include all the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia (euphemistically called “liberated" Ukrainian territory in the Tass story above), or it may also include South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

In DPR, Wednesday Denis Bushilin reshuffling the cabinet to include ex-Russian officials brought in as DNR cabinet ministers. former Russian Industry and Trade Ministry department head Vitaly Khotsenko as the head of the breakaway region's so-called Council of Ministers. Yevgeny Solntsev had served as adviser to Russia's Construction, Housing and Utilities Minister, while Alexander Kostomarov was deputy governor of western Russia's Lipetsk and Ulyanovsk regions. Pushilin said the new executive team faces a "broad range" of tasks, including post-war reconstruction and "integration" with Russia.
Russian Officials Take Office in Separatist Eastern Ukraine

Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the Lugansk People’s Republic, on Thursday appointed ex-Deputy Governor of Russia’s Kurgan Region Vladislav Kuznetsov First Deputy Chairman of the LPR’s government.

Kremlin respects DPR leader’s decision to reshuffle republic’s government

This may be prelude to annexation.

Annexation may include only LPR and DPR, or it may include all the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia (euphemistically called “liberated Ukrainian territory in the Tass story above), or it may also include South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.

Given Putin's now publicly-declared goal of empire, I think we can expect to see all of the client areas being absorbed, with Russian officials...

 

[Tidewater]

Given Putin's now publicly-declared goal of empire, I think we can expect to see all of the client areas being absorbed, with Russian officials...

Russia has been handing out Russian passports (and thus Russian nationality) in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Donbas since 2014.
The Russian constitution not only authorizes, but demands that the Russian government intervene to protect the rights of Russians* wherever they exist. By handing out passports to ethnic Russians in Donbas and to Abkhaz in Abkhazia, and Ossetians in South Ossetia, they are extending that "protection" to them.


* The Russian language has two terms for "Russian": Russkii for ethnic Russians, and Rossiskii for citizen of the Russian Federation, a civil vs. ethnic designation since there are lots of non-ethnic Russians inside the Russian Federation.

 

[Tidewater]

Given Putin's now publicly-declared goal of empire, I think we can expect to see all of the client areas being absorbed, with Russian officials...

The one exception will be Transnistria, which the Russians have no access to at the moment.They will probably le that sleeping dog lie.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The one exception will be Transnistria, which the Russians have no access to at the moment.They will probably le that sleeping dog lie.

Agree and that area's existence is a big puzzle to me. I've been meaning to go and research it a bit...

 

[Tidewater]

Agree and that area's existence is a big puzzle to me. I've been meaning to go and research it a bit...

It is a relic of the early break-up of the USSR.
When Moldova (which is basically a province of Romania, and most of the people in "Cisnistria" speak Romanian). As the USSR ws coming apart, the unnatural (forced) marriage between the USSR and Moldova ended in divorce. But, before that divorce was announced, the ethnic Russians (and Ukrainians, truth be told) in the portion of Moldova east of the Dniester (Transnistria) pre-emptively seceded from Moldova. Backed by the Russian 14th Army "peacekeepers" the separatists made it stick. Then a powerful wealthy oligarch and crime gangs profited from the anomolous situation of Moldova and money made the system work. Since 1992.
Transnistrian criminal gangs go across the river, kidnap Moldovan women, take them to Transnistria to work as prostitutes and tell them, "if you escape, we will kill your family." There is no Interpol in Transnistria, no Europol. Only the Russian 14th Army. (1,500 of them).
Stasis since 1992.
There are a lot of Youtube videos about life in Transnistria today.

 

[JDCrimson]

So yall seem to be suggesting the Donbas will be lost to the Russians. Is this a foregone conclusion yet? I'm still holding out hope that UKR can fully liberate itself.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

It is a relic of the early break-up of the USSR.
When Moldova (which is basically a province of Romania, and most of the people in "Cisnistria" speak Romanian). As the USSR ws coming apart, the unnatural (forced) marriage between the USSR and Moldova ended in divorce. But, before that divorce was announced, the ethnic Russians (and Ukrainian, truth be told) in the portion of Moldova east of the Dniester (Transnistria) pre-emptively seceded from Moldova. Backed by the Russian 14th Army "peacekeepers" the separatists made it stick. Then a powerful wealthy oligarch and crime gangs profited from the anomolous situation of Moldova and money made the system work. Since 1992.
Transnistrian criminal gangs go across the river, kidnap Moldovan women, take them to Transnistria to work as prostitutes and tell them, "if you escape, we will kill your family." There is no Interpol in Transnistria, no Europol. Only the Russian 14th Army. (1,500 of them).
Stasis since 1992.
There are a lot fo Youtube videos about life in Transnistria today.

IOW, what Putin envisions for all Ukraine...

 

[Tidewater]

So yall seem to be suggesting the Donbas will be lost to the Russians. Is this a foregone conclusion yet? I'm still holding out hope that UKR can fully liberate itself.

I think every decent person hopes Ukraine can liberate itself.
Absent some kind of collapse of the Russian army or government, that just looks unlikely. Russia not having motivated soldiers to conduct offensive ops is one thing, but prying dug-in Russian infantry out of a piece of terrain is not easy. Even unmotivated infantry can defend.

 

[81usaf92]

Ukraine war has pushed Japanese away from war-renouncing stance, political analyst says

The public mood in Japan has become less opposed to arming its self-defense forces after Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, an analyst said.

www.cnbc.com

At least one good thing is coming of this war.

Honestly… that should have happened 5 years ago. If you want to keep the Chinese in line just talk about rearming Japan. I suspect Trump back peddling on that idea( which he had) probably had something to do with the Philippines not wanting it. The only problem is that it makes war with Korea inevitable, but at some point I just wish we would get it over with before we find a Kim that finally follows through with his threats.

 

[Tug Tide]

Ukraine Claims Strike on Russian Naval Tug with Harpoon Missiles Supplied By West

KYIV, June 17 (Reuters) – Ukraine said its forces hit a Russian naval tugboat with two Harpoon missiles in the Black Sea on Friday, the first time it has claimed to have...

gcaptain.com

 

[Tug Tide]

Sharing all kinds of stuff from gCaptain this morning:
Here’s a couple articles on the mines hampering grain export

The Sea Mines Floating Between Ukraine’s Grain Stocks and The World

By Jonathan Saul LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) – As the United Nations tries to broker a path for grain from Ukraine and temper worries about a global food crisis, hundreds of mines...

gcaptain.com

Russia Offers Safe Passage to Ukrainian Grain Ships as Turkey Floats the Possibility of Mine-Free Corridors

By Tuvan Gumrukcu and Michelle Nichols ANKARA/UNITED NATIONS, June 15 (Reuters) – Russia on Wednesday said it has offered “safe passage” for Ukraine grain shipments from Black Sea ports but is not...

gcaptain.com