Russia Invades Ukraine IX

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4Q Basket Case

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I honestly think that the question is going to turn out to be "What does Putin's successor do about the NATO expansion"...
I can’t decide whether I hope you’re right nor not.

Depends on whether our spooks think the successor would be better, worse, or about the same as Putin. And how much intelligence we have on how he thinks. And whether the generals would follow his orders.

Putin’s done an excellent job of eliminating potential challengers. Who’s left and able to mount a serious coup? I have no idea.

Or maybe Putin truly is bad sick….he becomes too incapacitated to even put up a charade. Or he just dies. Who fills the vacuum, and how does he compare to Vlad? I also have no idea.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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I can’t decide whether I hope you’re right nor not.

Depends on whether our spooks think the successor would be better, worse, or about the same as Putin. And how much intelligence we have on how he thinks. And whether the generals would follow his orders.

Putin’s done an excellent job of eliminating potential challengers. Who’s left and able to mount a serious coup? I have no idea.

Or maybe Putin truly is bad sick….he becomes too incapacitated to even put up a charade. Or he just dies. Who fills the vacuum, and how does he compare to Vlad? I also have no idea.
You're right. The heirs apparent are all spies from a KGB background. OTOH, as I've said before, Putin has all the apparent symptoms of steroid therapy. We just don't know for what illness. Steroid thinking is not logical thinking. It's frequently grandiose and grandiloquent. It's stamped all over this Ukraine adventure. Peter the Great, indeed! We can dismally hope that the successor will operate on a more rational basis...
 

Bamaro

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I honestly think that the question is going to turn out to be "What does Putin's successor do about the NATO expansion"...
I wonder what would have happened in 91 or 92 if Russia had of made a different turn and totally turned away from USSR politics and wanted to join the west like E Germany, Poland etc. Its worked out very poorly since then with the path chosen.
 

TIDE-HSV

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I wonder what would have happened in 91 or 92 if Russia had of made a different turn and totally turned away from USSR politics and wanted to join the west like E Germany, Poland etc. Its worked out very poorly since then with the path chosen.
Even if the Putin Yeltsin installed had stayed with the facade he presented at first...
 
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Tidewater

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Here is the deal on that.
The Belarusians and Russians signed the "Union Treaty" in the late 1990s. Lukashenka was angling to be Yeltsin's successor.
Putin beat him to the punch, so Lukashenka told his negotiators "drag your feet on anything, so for 20 years the integration did not proceed. Putin and Lukashenka do not like each other.
Then in 2019, Lukashenka won an election through blatant fraud and protests broke out all over Belarus. Putin offered troops, and Lukashenka accepted. Of course Putin's condition was he wanted to proceed with the integration of Russia and Belarus in the union state. Lukashenka, it appears, would rather be a governor of a Russian province than a deposed president of an independent country.
 

TIDE-HSV

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I have to wonder how much the arming of Ukraine is basically PR. They had an interview on NPR this AM with some soldiers on the Donbas and they'd seen no NATO weapons. As expensive as it is, they need more than just four panzerhaubitzes from Germany...

Tom Cooper
 
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Tidewater

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I can’t decide whether I hope you’re right nor not.

Depends on whether our spooks think the successor would be better, worse, or about the same as Putin. And how much intelligence we have on how he thinks. And whether the generals would follow his orders.

Putin’s done an excellent job of eliminating potential challengers. Who’s left and able to mount a serious coup? I have no idea.

Or maybe Putin truly is bad sick….he becomes too incapacitated to even put up a charade. Or he just dies. Who fills the vacuum, and how does he compare to Vlad? I also have no idea.
Galeotti has a podcast on this.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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I normally don't have much of a conspiratorial slant of thinking, but we do seem to be slow-playing Ukraine on the number of weapons. I keep going back to Austin's remark about weakening Russia and wonder if we're watching Russia deplete both it's equipment and manpower and the Ukrainians are unfortunate pawns. Maybe we don't really want things to end too quickly...
 

4Q Basket Case

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Maybe one reason to desire this get wrapped up. If Putin really wants to punch back and can stand going without western money for a while, he can really hurt the West.
JPMorgan predicts $380 oil on worst-case Russian output cuts
I can do everything I need to do (commute to work, buy groceries, etc.) by bicycle, but many cannot and this would hurt a lot.
I really don’t think that would happen. At least, not to that extent.

But if it did, it would hurt everybody…even if, like you, they didn’t have to drive an inch. The ripple effects would dwarf the impact of $15 gasoline in your tank. Electricity would go up. Natural gas would go up. The cost of moving goods ranging from foodstuffs to construction materials to appliances from the point of production to the point of sale would skyrocket.

The cost, and therefore price, of every single thing any human being consumes would go up tremendously. Even if you grow your own food, the cost of fertilizer and other inputs would go off the charts, assuming you could get them at all. Unless you live completely off the grid, there would be no way to avoid it.
 
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JDCrimson

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I wonder if nations could by Russian oil to such a degree as well as other traditional sources that it lowers the price substantially. Then through a tariff mechanism contribute the excess into a weapons fund used to defeat the Russians with their own resources? It's already well-established they don't have the weaponry or man-power to maintain an enduring fight against Ukraine? As long as oil is cheap and a portion the petroleum economy is flowing toward fighting them them their own resources are being used to overwhelm them.
 

TIDE-HSV

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I wonder if nations could by Russian oil to such a degree as well as other traditional sources that it lowers the price substantially. Then through a tariff mechanism contribute the excess into a weapons fund used to defeat the Russians with their own resources? It's already well-established they don't have the weaponry or man-power to maintain an enduring fight against Ukraine? As long as oil is cheap and a portion the petroleum economy is flowing toward fighting them them their own resources are being used to overwhelm them.
Well, there are a couple hurdles there. One is that there's just not that much excess drilling and refining capacity at this point, so it's doubtful that the price could be forced down. The other is that each country has its own tariff structure. We don't need their oil here, so the tariff wouldn't work here and India and China, consuming the bulk of Russian oil at discount prices, are unlikely to go along...
 
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Bamaro

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I wonder if nations could by Russian oil to such a degree as well as other traditional sources that it lowers the price substantially. Then through a tariff mechanism contribute the excess into a weapons fund used to defeat the Russians with their own resources? It's already well-established they don't have the weaponry or man-power to maintain an enduring fight against Ukraine? As long as oil is cheap and a portion the petroleum economy is flowing toward fighting them them their own resources are being used to overwhelm them.
For some reason that smells of reagonomics taxes (voodo econimics)
 

Tidewater

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This is a new low, even for Russians.
Russians Fear Commanders Are Selling Their Own Troops’ Locations for Cash
Russians in general look at public office, any public office, as something the holder can and should use for personal enrichment. I can imagine some folks would be willing to pay for info on the exact locations of Russian units, who could pass that info to Ukrainian artillery units.
 
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