Russia Invades Ukraine, part XI

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Latest video, less than 5 minutes, from Peter Zeihan. Talking about the Ukrainian drones.


When I heard about the Ukrainians’ drone attack on Russian air bases, my first thought was, “Where did they get the drones? Hope it wasn’t us, because we and the rest of NATO have gone to great lengths to prevent them from using our missiles and other kit to attack Russia proper.”

Well, it turns out that a lot of the former Soviet areospace industry was in Ukraine, and they have the expertise to make their own drones….which is exactly what they’ve done.

My second thought was, “How did a Ukrainian drone fly several hundred miles through Russian airspace to strike an Air Force base — which you would think would be pretty heavily defended — without being shot down? Or at least detected?”

Don’t have an answer for that one beyond, “It would appear that Russian air defenses are pretty crappy, even around high-value targets.”

Zeihan doesn’t think the Ukrainians can make enough drones to turn the military tide of the war. But he thinks they can destroy Russian oil and gas refineries and transport, which would further cripple Russia’s already-wounded economic ability to carry on the war.

Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.

The Ukrainian military is smaller, but better equipped, better led and more motivated. The Russian military is nominally massive, but its field effectiveness is sorely compromised. They are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and wholly unmotivated. And for a variety of reasons, the stuff they do have often doesn’t work.

Who wins? The first half of 2023 will tell the tale.

Also, what happens to western energy prices if the Russians can’t sell as much oil and gas as they currently do? I would have thought prices would already be through the roof. But it hasn’t happened to he degree I expected. Wish I knew the answer to that one.
As far as fuel prices in the US I have read that demand is simply down. People aren't driving and using as much fuel. Also the looming recession and current inflation is affecting consumption.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Latest video, less than 5 minutes, from Peter Zeihan. Talking about the Ukrainian drones.


When I heard about the Ukrainians’ drone attack on Russian air bases, my first thought was, “Where did they get the drones? Hope it wasn’t us, because we and the rest of NATO have gone to great lengths to prevent them from using our missiles and other kit to attack Russia proper.”

Well, it turns out that a lot of the former Soviet areospace industry was in Ukraine, and they have the expertise to make their own drones….which is exactly what they’ve done.

My second thought was, “How did a Ukrainian drone fly several hundred miles through Russian airspace to strike an Air Force base — which you would think would be pretty heavily defended — without being shot down? Or at least detected?”

Don’t have an answer for that one beyond, “It would appear that Russian air defenses are pretty crappy, even around high-value targets.”

Zeihan doesn’t think the Ukrainians can make enough drones to turn the military tide of the war. But he thinks they can destroy Russian oil and gas refineries and transport, which would further cripple Russia’s already-wounded economic ability to carry on the war.

Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.

The Ukrainian military is smaller, but better equipped, better led and more motivated. The Russian military is nominally massive, but its field effectiveness is sorely compromised. They are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and wholly unmotivated. And for a variety of reasons, the stuff they do have often doesn’t work.

Who wins? The first half of 2023 will tell the tale.

Also, what happens to western energy prices if the Russians can’t sell as much oil and gas as they currently do? I would have thought prices would already be through the roof. But it hasn’t happened to he degree I expected. Wish I knew the answer to that one.
It bothers me that he's still talking about a 500K man army. There's no way they can put that many bodies out there, much less trained soldiers...
 
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Tidewater

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My second thought was, “How did a Ukrainian drone fly several hundred miles through Russian airspace to strike an Air Force base — which you would think would be pretty heavily defended — without being shot down? Or at least detected?”

Don’t have an answer for that one beyond, “It would appear that Russian air defenses are pretty crappy, even around high-value targets.”
One, the Russian air defenders were probably drunk or asleep because they were so far from the front and...
Two, a portion of the equipment had been pilfered and sold for private gain.
Things start to blow up and the Russian duck-hunters will sober up and the gear become too high-visibility within the Russian system to pilfer (at least for a while).
A Chief of Staff of the Air Force (CSAF) a while back said "the last fighter pilot has already been born." At the time, people scoffed at unmanned aircraft capabilities, but this appears to be a great leap forward.
 
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4Q Basket Case

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One, the Russian air defenders were probably drunk or asleep because they were so far from the front and...
Two, a portion of the equipment had been pilfered and sold for private gain.
Things start to blow up and the Russian duck-hunters will sober up and the gear become too high-visibility within the Russian system to pilfer (at least for a while).
A Chief of Staff of the Air Force (CSAF) a while back said "the last fighter pilot has already been born." At the time, people scoffed at unmanned aircraft capabilities, but this appears to be a great leap forward.
Just curious….if someone steals air defense equipment, do they sell components that can be re-purposed in non-military applications? Or do they sell the whole thing?

If it’s the whole thing, who do they sell it to? As I think about it, I guess they’d sell it to someone like Bout (back in business as of yesterday o_O), who in turn sells it to a country that doesn’t have the ability to develop its own.

Any idea if that speculation is anywhere close to right?
 

2003TIDE

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unmanned aircraft capabilities, but this appears to be a great leap forward.
I mean they are reporting that they most likely pulled the camera out of a 1970's reconnaissance drone and added explosives. That is what is amazing to me. This isn't some stealth drone.
 

Tidewater

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Just curious….if someone steals air defense equipment, do they sell components that can be re-purposed in non-military applications? Or do they sell the whole thing?

If it’s the whole thing, who do they sell it to? As I think about it, I guess they’d sell it to someone like Bout (back in business as of yesterday o_O), who in turn sells it to a country that doesn’t have the ability to develop its own.

Any idea if that speculation is anywhere close to right?
That's probably about right. It would really depend on the component and the end item. The USSR was the number 2 arms exporter in the world before it died, so there are a lot of countries that need parts.
Guys like Bout would be useful go-betweens between embezzlers and purchasing countries.
 

TIDE-HSV

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That's probably about right. It would really depend on the component and the end item. The USSR was the number 2 arms exporter in the world before it died, so there are a lot of countries that need parts.
Guys like Bout would be useful go-betweens between embezzlers and purchasing countries.
With a bit over ten years out of action how many of his contacts will he have lost? A lot of the governments (and pretenders) he sold to are no longer around...
 

crimsonaudio

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With a bit over ten years out of action how many of his contacts will he have lost? A lot of the governments (and pretenders) he sold to are no longer around...
If he still has his air fleet, I suspect he'd be back in the game pretty quickly. He (apparently) has delivery abilities far beyond anyone else in his 'line of work'...

And I'll bet Putin helps him.
 

TIDE-HSV

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If he still has his air fleet, I suspect he'd be back in the game pretty quickly. He (apparently) has delivery abilities far beyond anyone else in his 'line of work'...

And I'll bet Putin helps him.
He's been out of action too long, unless Putin takes him under his arm and becomes his рыша...
 
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Bamaro

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Russia has “destroyed” Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Zelensky says
Invading Russian forces have "destroyed" the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday. "The occupiers actually destroyed Bakhmut, another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins," Zelensky said in a recorded video. The president's statement comes as Russia reportedly continues a barrage of missile and rocket attacks throughout multiple regions in Ukraine. While Ukrainian forces have been able to push back much of the front Russian lines, fighting remains heavy throughout the country's eastern provinces. This includes the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, part of four provinces that Russian President Vladimir Putin has illegally annexed.
 
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seebell

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From Sarah Meadows of Huntsville,Alabama on FaceBook
I went to a Ukrainian bake sale this morning over in Madison, and wanted to share something with you guys in case you would like to give to a worthy cause.
I met a lady named Lyudmyla Zsidisin whose son Andrew is in the Ukrainian army at this time. She handed me a page of information about her project and asked me to share it. I am transcribing it here.
Please contact her directly to help, or someone can arrange a drive for things in order to help her gather the supplies.
Thank you!
--------------------
My name is Lyudmyla Zsidisin, and I'm from Ukraine. Currently, I live in Huntsville, AL. I am writing in an effort to help those fighting during this time of war in Ukraine. The war is personal for me as my son Andrew went to the army as a volunteer. He and his fellow soldiers are serving in the Ukrainian Army currently.
I had a short trip to Krakow, Oct. 5 (Poland) and back to Huntsville (Oct 10). During the trip I met my daughter-in-law and my grandson, who is 10 y.o., in Pshemysl, near the border with Ukraine. I delivered them two (50lb ea) suitcases. My kids were in the train back that night of Oct 10, when Ukraine was massively bombed. They arrived safe. We delivered some urgent lifesaving things to my son and his co-soldiers.
This summer, I spent 3 mos in Ukraine and saw firsthand the situation there. I see the opportunity for us to ship to Ukraine some urgent supplies like used and clean warm clothes.
I'll be happy to meet with any groups (school, Rotary Club, library, bank, church, small business) to talk about the situation in Ukraine, using PowerPoint, if there is an interest.
I am looking for:
WARM CLOTHES:
Thermal underwear sets, thermal socks, fleece clothes, jackets, sweaters, pants, t-shirts, (short and long sleeves), boots, ski overalls, hats, gloves, coats, neck gaiters, and all other military stuff you may know.
SUPPLIES:
Sleeping bags and blankets, backpacks, body armor even without plates, first aid kits, tourniquets, vent tourniquets, emergency bandages, life straws and water filters. Solar and normal power banks, flashlights, mobile light and electricity producing devices, binoculars, mobile radio stations, rain ponchos, goggles, dry hygiene products (no liquids or soap bars).
HOSPITALS:
All and everything. I am looking for the contacts to work with the hospitals and houses for elderly people in the area, perhaps they can donate what they do not need. Wheelchairs, walkers, all what wounded soldiers need. Medical supplies especially for burnt skin. Tactical medicine.
If you have the stuff, please call or send me a message (256-714-4290) and we'll manage it. I am in constant contact with the humanitarian non profit organizations in my town, and with the military, receive the notes about their needs.
I ship boxes via "Dnipro LLC" to the nonprofit organizations in Cherkasy. I know "from the first hands" the urgent needs.
I also brought here from Ukraine kids' drawings (which are usually put into the first aid kits in Ukraine) to display. I would like to arrange displays with those pictures somewhere in Huntsville. I appreciate your suggestions.
CONTACT:
Lyudmyla (Mila) Zsidisin
tel # 256-724-4290
WhatsApp: Mila (256-724-4290)
emails: milazsidisin@gmail.com, milamlmk@yahoo.com
PAYPAL:
Lyudmyla Zsidisin, email: mila.ukr.23@gmail.com
With the military help of the USA, UK, Poland, Canada, Baltic and other friendly countries and people, Ukraine will win, stop its aggressors, and hopefully find peace in the world.
I appreciate your time, help, and suggestions.
Lyudmyla (Mila) Zsidisin
Three boxes of November 12th are on the way, five more are ready for shipping.
1Steve Belcher
 

TIDE-HSV

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Fair point. Two questions.
1. Then why did the Russians want him back?
2. Are there still countries who want to buy weapons?
The answer I've heard most often is he knows where too many bodies are buried, etc., and has stonewalled the CIA, etc., so far. But who knows when he would finally crack. I think they want him back to give him a nice retirement, pension and dacha as a reward. On 2., I'm not sure how many current customers they have for new equipment. Their old is so well known for breakdowns, they'll always have a parts market...

Edit: I'd add that what he knows has held its value so well, they still wanted him after this long...
 
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Elefantman

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R Can Saw

British trucks come in many models and makes, but they all have one thing in common: the driver's seat is on the right-hand side.

This slight difference to other trucks and vehicles on the frontline has saved the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers, Oleksii told Insider. According to Oleksii Russian snipers mistakenly aimed for the passenger seat, thinking they were shooting at the drivers.
 

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