Russia Invades Ukraine, part XI

[TIDE-HSV]

For the very first time in European history, the phrase "German tanks are coming!" is actually GOOD news!

That reminds me of when I was watching a Viking European river cruise. I thought there was a time when news of a Viking long boat on the river would have spread widespread panic...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Germans I work with are first rate. Hard-working and smart. Love those guys.
That said, the Germans keep turning up guys in the Bundeswehr with Nazi overtones (Nazi memorabilia and expressions of sympathy with Nazi policy). Consequently, the Bundeswehr is held in low regard in German society. In fact, whenever a German soldier was killed in Afghanistan, members of the Green Party in Germany would have a party to celebrate.

I'm somewhat familiar with the situation on a personal basis. It's gone from when a military career was the apex of society to where it's not a respected profession at all...

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Let me preface my question with the following: I know very little about military history/strategy so please pardon my ignorance here. Okay, so my question is this: why did Putin wait until 2022 to start this military campaign? Seems to me that if he wanted to do this, the time to do so would have been eight years ago. This decision just utterly baffles me, so I'd appreciate any insight here.

I think it’s because he (probably correctly) figured that it’s now or never.

Russia simply doesn’t have the number of 18 - 34 year-olds — the guys that do the fighting — to wait. That cohort is already skewing toward the older end (i.e., 30+), and there aren’t enough younger ones coming along to replenish ones aging out into the 35+ category.

 

[JDCrimson]

Is it possible the US will repurchase somes export version tanks from foreign countries that are not in the theater of war and replace them with newer models? This would allow the tanks to get to the front line faster.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Is it possible the US will repurchase somes export version tanks from foreign countries that are not in the theater of war and replace them with newer models? This would allow the tanks to get to the front line faster.

I didn’t know we’d exported any Abrams to anyone. Do you know who has an export version?

 

[JDCrimson]

Per Wikipedia, admittedly, there are varying versions of the M1A in allied fleets across the world. The M1 Abrams entered service in 1980 and serves as the main battle tank of the United States Army and formerly of the United States Marine Corps (USMC). The export version is used by the armies of Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Iraq.

I didn’t know we’d exported any Abrams to anyone. Do you know who has an export version?

 

[92tide]

I think it’s because he (probably correctly) figured that it’s now or never.

Russia simply doesn’t have the number of 18 - 34 year-olds — the guys that do the fighting — to wait. That cohort is already skewing toward the older end (i.e., 30+), and there aren’t enough younger ones coming along to replenish ones aging out into the 35+ category.

The Russian population pyramid for 2022 shows that people aged 30-40 are the largest group, but they have not had nearly enough children to replace their population, indicating that the population of Russia will significantly shrink with the next generation.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

The Russian population pyramid for 2022 shows that people aged 30-40 are the largest group, but they have not had nearly enough children to replace their population, indicating that the population of Russia will significantly shrink with the next generation.

Interesting that even after the 80+ male group that was effectively wiped out during WWII, males lag materially behind a 50/50 distribution, starting at about age 35. That accelerates in the next cohort, and its pedal to the metal starting at about 45.

While I don’t have hard data, I’m guessing the higher mortality has to do with alcohol and HIV.

You don’t want to be male and Russian….you die in Ukraine, you drink yourself into a premature grave, or you get HIV, and won’t be treated.

Talk about bleak….

 

[2003TIDE]

Is it possible the US will repurchase somes export version tanks from foreign countries that are not in the theater of war and replace them with newer models? This would allow the tanks to get to the front line faster.

From what I’ve read, possible yes, probably no. There just aren’t large quantities available to repurchase and countries like Taiwan are in the queue already to get export versions. The countries who do have them aren’t likely to want to give up the numbers required. The leopard is more readily available which is why it was being pushed.

 

[Bamaro]

Gen. McCaffrey: ‘One battalion of M1 tanks is inconsequential on the battlefield’

This drip, drip, drip of support for Ukraine will not have the desired results. McCaffery is right. Take a clue from Schwarzkopf.
Gen. McCaffrey: ‘One battalion of M1 tanks is inconsequential on the battlefield’ (msnbc.com)

 

[2003TIDE]

This drip, drip, drip of support for Ukraine will not have the desired results. McCaffery is right. Take a clue from Schwarzkopf.
Gen. McCaffrey: ‘One battalion of M1 tanks is inconsequential on the battlefield’ (msnbc.com)

Shrug. They are getting about 2x that in Challengers and Leapords. Which would equal a division of NATO tanks. Plus we sent them about 100 Bradleys. So they have enough hardware for multiple combined arms battalions.

 

[crimsonaudio]

I didn’t know we’d exported any Abrams to anyone. Do you know who has an export version?

Maybe we can gift them those we left in Afghanistan.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Maybe we can gift them those we left in Afghanistan.

Ouch! That’s going to leave a mark.

 

[Tidewater]

Shrug. They are getting about 2x that in Challengers and Leapords. Which would equal a division of NATO tanks. Plus we sent them about 100 Bradleys. So they have enough hardware for multiple combined arms battalions.

A division is 9-10 battalions (some tank battalion, some mech infantry battalions, and they swap companies between battalions to have a combined arms team, because pure tank and pure mech infantry is a recipe for bad things when facing a clever opponent. Usually, a tank battalion (54 tanks) will give up one, two or even three tank companies (14 tanks/company), and get three, two, or one mech infantry companies (14 Bradleys/company) in return, so that both the giver and the receiver are "combined arms" battalions.

Today, in the US Army, I think they are organically mixed at the battalion level. So, a battalion in garrison has two mech and two tank companies.

To give an idea of scale, the Germans invaded the USSR in 1941 with 154 divisions (100 infantry, 19 panzer, 11 motorized, 9 security, 5 Waffen-SS, 4 "light", 4 mountain, 1 SS-police, and 1 cavalry).

 

[Tidewater]

I didn’t know we’d exported any Abrams to anyone. Do you know who has an export version?

When I was living in Egypt the US maintained a sizable mission of soldiers training the Egyptians on the Abrams.

 

[Tidewater]

One battalion of tanks would amount to 1/9 of 1/150 of what the Germans used to invade the USSR. Since there were three Army Groups, and only one of those was devoted to the front in Ukraine, that means one tank battalion amounts to about 1/450th of the battalions the Wehrmacht used to conquer Ukraine. Add 100 Bradleys (equivalent of two battalions), and have a mech heavy brigade equivalent. The fraction then drops to 1/150th of what the Germans used to conquer Ukraine.
Yes, Abrams-Bradley equipped brigade is more capable that a German light infantry regiment, but the guys they are facing are more capable as well (Soviet dismounted Rifle Division in 1941 vs a Russian Motorized Rifle Division in 2022).

Bottom line, not a huge contribution. Even with UK Challengers and German Leos, you are talking circa one complete armored division. That's something, but that ain't gonna win the war all by itself.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

One battalion of tanks would amount to 1/9 of 1/150 of what the Germans used to invade the USSR. Since there were three Army Groups, and only one of those was devoted to the front in Ukraine, that means one tank battalion amounts to about 1/450th of the battalions the Wehrmacht used to conquer Ukraine. Add 100 Bradleys (equivalent of two battalions), and have a mech heavy brigade equivalent. The fraction then drops to 1/150th of what the Germans used to conquer Ukraine.
Yes, Abrams-Bradley equipped brigade is more capable that a German light infantry regiment, but the guys they are facing are more capable as well (Soviet dismounted Rifle Division in 1941 vs a Russian Motorized Rifle Division in 2022).

Bottom line, not a huge contribution. Even with UK Challengers and German Leos, you are talking circa one complete armored division. That's something, but that ain't gonna win the war all by itself.

Do we have any idea what the contributions from the other NATO and non-NATO countries will amount to?

 

[Tidewater]

Do we have any idea what the contributions from the other NATO and non-NATO countries will amount to?

Something, but not much.
If Ukraine is going to "win," (defined as ejecting the occupiers from all Ukrainian territory as defined in 2013), it is going to take Ukrainian muscle (a lot of Ukrainian muscle), or a Russian coup, followed by a Russian withdrawal.
Tanks will help, but having tanks from different nationalities in tiny quantities will make for a logistical nightmare. Imagine trying to manage a fleet of cars from Japan, the US, Germany, each in small quantities. How would you stock repair parts? Parts from one won't work in the other. Mechanics who know Ford, won't know how to maintain a Datsun car.

The Wehrmacht experienced this in spades in 1941. A nightmare.

 

[TexasBama]

Do we have any idea what the contributions from the other NATO and non-NATO countries will amount to?

31 from the US , 14 from Germany, 14 from the UK, a decent number from Poland (maybe 14ish), and a handful from Norway, Spain, and the Netherlands. Probably 80ish if everyone comes through. So maybe a brigade plus a few squadrons.

 

[Tidewater]

31 from the US , 14 from Germany, 14 from the UK, a decent number from Poland (maybe 14ish), and a handful from Norway, Spain, and the Netherlands. Probably 80ish if everyone comes through. So maybe a brigade plus a few squadrons.

The US uses a nemonic called DOTMLPF; Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, and Facilities to analyze the impact of a change like adding tanks to your inventory.
Changing your materiel (adding M1s) has impacts on doctrine (how do you manage ammo resupply, maintenance, etc.), training (training crews and mechanics), materiel (repair parts, ammo, etc.), personnel ( trained on the M1), facilities (for depot level maintenance).

Now, add Leos and you have the same issues, but for a different system, different maintenance procedures, different training for crews, maintenance personnel, etc.).

Then add British Challengers.

Now you see the complexity of adding a small number of a bunch of different weapons systems.

I'm sure the Ukrainians would love a large number of the same system, but they are not in a position to be choosy.