Russia Invades Ukraine, part XI

[4Q Basket Case]

I can't believe the Russians left Kherson intact. Of course, it's not over. They can bombard it from across the river and probably will...

I do wonder what the Ukrainians do when they reach the Dnipro. There’s still a lot of their territory on the eastern side, and it’s a big river. Crossing it under fire, without a bridge that supports heavy weapons (and maybe no bridge at all) will be no mean feat….even acknowledging that the russkies have thus far monumentally botched the whole operation.

Regarding Kherson, I do think the Russians are hiding sleeper cells there in the rubble, and will ambush smaller Ukrainian units and individual soldiers (probably targeting higher-ranking officers). Kind of like snipers, their effect isn’t so much what they actually do, but rather the damage that the threat of being shot suddenly and out of nowhere does to the other side’s psyche.

I‘ve read that Kherson civilians have said that there are lots of Russians there in civilian clothing. And I wonder about that, too. As in, are they members of the sleeper cells, or are they Russian soldiers trying to defect?

It’ll get interesting.

 

[Tidewater]

I do wonder what the Ukrainians do when they reach the Dnipro. There’s still a lot of their territory on the eastern side, and it’s a big river. Crossing it under fire, without a bridge that supports heavy weapons (and maybe no bridge at all) will be no mean feat….even acknowledging that the russkies have thus far monumentally botched the whole operation.

That is an amphibious op, just like D-Day (with a narrower body of water).
It would be difficult.
One interesting thing the Red Army used to do was as an offensive was petering out, they would surge to get bridgeheads over the next river, before the front stabilized. That gave them a bridgehead with which to start the next offensive. After the battle of Kursk, the Red Army pushed elements across the Dnieper in September or October 1943 as the offensive played out and died. The Red Army would continue the attack across the Dnieper in Jan-Feb 1944. But that resumption of the offensive was a lot easier due to the bridgeheads having already been seized in Sept-Oct 1943.

The Red Army did the same thing with Oder River. The January 1945 offensive seized bridgeheads across the Oder in Jan 1945, and the front in that area stabilized until April. In April, 1945, Zhukhov launched his Berlin offensive leveraging these bridgeheads.

It is a lot easier to seize a bridgehead at the conclusion of the last offensive (when things are fluid) than at the beginning of the next offensive (when things are static).

 

[Go Bama]

From what I can tell looking at Google Maps, there is only one bridge across the Dnipro close to Kherson. There is another that looks to be several miles to the east of Kherson.

The Dnipro is already starting to form a delta at Kherson before it empties into the Dniprovs'ka Gulf. There is a shipyard in Kherson where they have built ocean going vessels so the river must be deep here.

There is another city on the south side of the Dnipro, but it looks to be a few miles south of the river. The land directly on the south side of the river looks like farm land that probably floods regularly.

I don't know where the Russians are going to hide on the south side of the river unless it's in the town that is a few miles south of the Dnipro.

Here is a link to a picture of Kherson where you can get a feel for the width of the Dnipro.

https://goo.gl/maps/seHzVq4RFze7Qggc8

 

[TIDE-HSV]

From what I can tell looking at Google Maps, there is only one bridge across the Dnipro close to Kherson. There is another that looks to be several miles to the east of Kherson.

The Dnipro is already starting to form a delta at Kherson before it empties into the Dniprovs'ka Gulf. There is a shipyard in Kherson where they have built ocean going vessels so the river must be deep here.

There is another city on the south side of the Dnipro, but it looks to be a few miles south of the river. The land directly on the south side of the river looks like farm land that probably floods regularly.

I don't know where the Russians are going to hide on the south side of the river unless it's in the town that is a few miles south of the Dnipro.

Here is a link to a picture of Kherson where you can get a feel for the width of the Dnipro.

https://goo.gl/maps/seHzVq4RFze7Qggc8

And that's the Dniper, as dammed. If the Ukrainians make a serious offensive, I have no doubt the Russians will blow the dam, even it it does do away with the cooling for the reactors. They lost interest in the power plant, except as a weapon, when they found that it had been modified to the point it was no longer compatible with the Russian grid...

 

[Go Bama]

And that's the Dniper, as dammed. If the Ukrainians make a serious offensive, I have no doubt the Russians will blow the dam, even it it does do away with the cooling for the reactors. They lost interest in the power plant, except as a weapon, when they found that it had been modified to the point it was no longer compatible with the Russian grid...

View attachment 29979ieper

I did not realize until your post that the Dnieper and the Dnipro are the same river. "Dnipro" is the Ukranian pronunciation.

According to this Wiki page:

In an effort to shed the geographical legacy of the Soviet era, the Ukrainian government launched a “decommunization” initiative in 2016 that led to the renaming of more than 900 towns and cities. Dnipropetrovsk was by far the largest city to be so affected, and in May 2016 its name was officially shortened to Dnipro.

Evidently, both the city and the river are "Dnipro" in Ukranian. I'm a bit of a geography buff, and my world geography app calls the river the Dnieper, but Google maps calls the river Dnipro.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I did not realize until your post that the Dnieper and the Dnipro are the same river. "Dnipro" is the Ukranian pronunciation.

According to this Wiki page:



Evidently, both the city and the river are "Dnipro" in Ukranian. I'm a bit of a geography buff, and my world geography app calls the river the Dnieper, but Google maps calls the river Dnipro.

It's still the "Dnieper" in Russian. My whole point was, though, to point out how broad it would be if the Russians blew the dam. As I said, it would hazard the nuclear plant, and do unimaginable damage to the Kherson and the downriver settlements, including land they still claim, but the Russians can't be depended on for rational decisions, the evacuation of Kherson notwithstanding...

 

[Tidewater]

I did not realize until your post that the Dnieper and the Dnipro are the same river. "Dnipro" is the Ukranian pronunciation.

According to this Wiki page:



Evidently, both the city and the river are "Dnipro" in Ukranian. I'm a bit of a geography buff, and my world geography app calls the river the Dnieper, but Google maps calls the river Dnipro.

I think that is a mistake.
The name of the city Dnipropetrovsk was named after Peter the Great of Russia, so the post-Soviet Ukrainians dropped the "petrovsk" part. The name of the river is "Dnieper."

 

[Go Bama]

It's still the "Dnieper" in Russian. My whole point was, though, to point out how broad it would be if the Russians blew the dam. As I said, it would hazard the nuclear plant, and do unimaginable damage to the Kherson and the downriver settlements, including land they still claim, but the Russians can't be depended on for rational decisions, the evacuation of Kherson notwithstanding...

I understood your point. I doubt the Russian’s would blow the dam while they have their army positioned on the south bank of the river (whatever it’s called). However, the Russians may blow the dam later to try to wipe out the Ukrainians as they attempt to cross the river.

 

[Go Bama]

I think that is a mistake.
The name of the city Dnipropetrovsk was named after Peter the Great of Russia, so the post-Soviet Ukrainians dropped the "petrovsk" part. The name of the river is "Dnieper."

dnipro river - Google Search

 

[AUDub]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591273892470890496

"Putin's brain", Alexander Dugin, calls for Russian leader to be killed for his failures in Ukraine. The Russians can accept all sorts of terrible atrocities, but can’t handle their strongman to be a loser.

It's things like this that make you appreciate living in a democracy over the constant insecurity of an autocracy.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

It's "Dnipro" now, to the Ukrainians. Here's a whole book on it...

Dnipro

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Here's a fascinating video from Peter Zeihan on what's going on in Southern Ukraine / Crimea, and what it means for the Russians. Only about 10 - 11 minutes and time well-spent.

The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea - YouTube

Short version is: The Russians cannot supply an army in the south, and are between a rock and a hard place. If they retreat, it has to be from Crimea on top of a lot of other territory, and it's humiliating. If they stand, they get annihilated because they can't supply the army necessary to defeat the Ukrainians -- and two bad things happen. It's humiliating and it costs them a lot of men and equipment.

HOWEVER, whichever way the Russians are humiliated in the south, the war's not over. Only the easy part for the Ukrainians is over.

The Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in the east have none of the supply problems that plague the south and are causing Crimea and rest of the area to be militarily untenable.

They (Donetsk and Luhansk) can be supplied by rail from mainland Russia. Which means the Russians will have to be booted out the old-fashioned way: head-on conflict. At which the Russians have historically been at least competent.
_______________________

I don't know if Zeihan's predictions are accurate or not. He's been pretty good so far, though he was surprised by the magnitude of the kleptocracy's impact on the Russian army -- volume and quality of equipment, training of troops, etc.

Still, his logic is sound, and it's well worth paying attention when he speaks.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591273892470890496

It's things like this that make you appreciate living in a democracy over the constant insecurity of an autocracy.

This past August, Dugin's daughter was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow. The Russians blamed it on the Ukrainians, but have been deafeningly silent since and otherwise.

My personal take was that the car bomb was intended for Dugin himself....an attempt by Putin to take out yet another competent mind that could pose a threat to his rule.

I'm betting that has as much to do with Dugin's new position as anything.

 

[Go Bama]

It's humiliating and it costs them a lot of men and equipment.

Is it possible to humiliate Putin?

 

[4Q Basket Case]

Is it possible to humiliate Putin?

I think internally he’s already humiliated. But you’re right in that he would never give any external indication of that.

My prediction is that he keeps doubling down, hoping against hope that he’ll catch a break somewhere along the way and at least pull out sovereignty over the breakaway province. At that point he’d declare victory and strut like a bantam rooster.

But I’m not sure the Ukrainians would concede even that. The next few weeks will be interesting in the south (see Peter Zeihan’s video, link posted above), and the spring will be interesting in the east.

China’s Xi is one of the very few leaders who is not an outspoken enemy of Putin, and even he says, “No nukes over Ukraine.”

Whether Putin would go against that advice, I don’t know. Whether tactical nukes would make a difference in Ukraine, I also don’t know, but have read that they would be no more than a terror weapon.

And if Putin lobs a missile (whether nuclear or conventional) at a NATO country, I’m beginning to think the Chinese would help the Russians take out Putin.

I’d also say that the US midterms did nothing for Putin, and he knows it. Few to no MAGA Republicans won, it’s clear to the Republican Party establishment that Trump is a net liability, and Regan-style Republicans have historically supported anybody fighting the Russians. I honestly don’t think the midterms could have turned out worse for Putin.

 

[Go Bama]

And if Putin lobs a missile (whether nuclear or conventional) at a NATO country, I’m beginning to think the Chinese would help the Russians take out Putin.

wow, this never occured to me.

I agree about Putin and the midterms. Even if th Rs win control the House, I suspect there will be enough Rs who support Ukraine to vote with the Ds and keep military aide flowing to Ukraine.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I think internally he’s already humiliated. But you’re right in that he would never give any external indication of that.

My prediction is that he keeps doubling down, hoping against hope that he’ll catch a break somewhere along the way and at least pull out sovereignty over the breakaway province. At that point he’d declare victory and strut like a bantam rooster.

But I’m not sure the Ukrainians would concede even that. The next few weeks will be interesting in the south (see Peter Zeihan’s video, link posted above), and the spring will be interesting in the east.

China’s Xi is one of the very few leaders who is not an outspoken enemy of Putin, and even he says, “No nukes over Ukraine.” Whether Putin would go against that advice, I don’t know. Whether tactical nukes would make a difference in Ukraine, I also don’t know. And if Putin lobs a missile (whether nuclear or conventional) at a NATO country, I’m beginning to think the Chinese would help the Russians take out Putin.

I’d also say that the US midterms did nothing for Putin, and he knows it. Few to no MAGA Republicans won, it’s clear to the Republican Party establishment that Trump is a net liability, and Regan-style Republicans have historically supported anybody fighting the Russians. I honestly don’t think the midterms could have turned out worse for Putin.

The Russian media and public agrees the midterms weren't the life preserver they expected. Quite the reverse, in fact. And, as military experts, including, I think, Tidewater, have pointed out, tac-nukes really won't turn the tide for the Russians. The Ukrainians have shown themselves immune to terror. When I was a kid, in "strut like a bantam rooster," it was "banty rooster."

 

[JDCrimson]

I would suggest if there any Republican Congressmen who want to deleverage from Trump they do 2 things 1) authorize whatever support is needed for Ukraine complete victory.and restoration and reparations from Russia and 2) do not stand in the way of the DOJ when its ultimately moves against Trump.

It's best to play a flank and passive aggressive strategy against a narcissist. Eventually they will put themselves in a corner.

 

[2003TIDE]

Zelensky accuses Russia of missile attack on Nato member Poland

Polish PM calls urgent meeting of security and defence councils as Pentagon investigates

www.independent.co.uk

 

[AUDub]

Hope our response is hefty for this one, be it diplomatically, via cyber, or with a dramatic increase in materiel and other aid for the Ukrainians.